NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	83		Excitement	3.3 [1148]		MVP	Rasheed Wallace (DET): +14.0%
San Antonio Spurs	68		Comeback	1.1 [590]		LVP	Chauncey Billups (DET): -14.4%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rasheed Wallace	0.14	0,0,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.13	0.02	0.01	20	67%	0.16	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Richard Hamilton	0.08	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.03	0.01	-0.04	23	47%	0.08	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Antonio McDyess	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.02	0.00	-0.05	8	37%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tayshaun Prince	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	0.01	0.03	11	50%	0.01	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.01
Maurice Evans	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Carlos Delfino	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ben Wallace	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.09	0.00	-0.06	3	25%	0.00	3	-0.04	2	0%	-0.00
Chauncey Billups	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.16,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.18	-0.02	-0.05	14	32%	-0.01	6	-0.13	0	0%	0.00

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Manu Ginobili	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	-0.02	13	46%	0.03	1	-0.01	9	78%	0.02
Bruce Bowen	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	-0.00	4	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Fabricio Oberto	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Beno Udrih	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.04	0.00	-0.04	1	0%	-0.00	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brent Barry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rasho Nesterovic	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	4	50%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Robert Horry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	4	25%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nazr Mohammed	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Nick Van Exel	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.01	0.01	7	43%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Parker	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.03	-0.01	0.05	14	52%	-0.01	1	-0.02	5	40%	-0.01
Tim Duncan	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	0.00	0.00	17	39%	-0.05	0	0.00	10	30%	-0.05
Michael Finley	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.08	-0.01	-0.02	4	0%	-0.05	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.2	2.7	29.7	18.8	25.2	3.6	34.0	138.2
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DET +40.5%

SAS -2.5%

DET +19.3%

SAS -9.6%

DET +2.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	SAS	NBA	DET	SAS	NBA
this game	18.9	16.3	15.6	101.2	82.9	104.4
season	16.9	16.3		108.3	106.0
opponent	15.6	15.8		99.4	101.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	15.9	17.9	18.4	23.2	18.9
SAS	18.4	17.2	17.6	11.7	16.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Richard Hamilton	75	73	0.60	-0.10	0.71	-0.04	22	-7	29	18.2	26.3	-8.13	16.2	16.6	-0.32
Ben Wallace	65	64	0.54	-0.04	0.59	-0.13	23	-8	31	17.9	22.6	-4.79	16.5	15.3	1.27
Rasheed Wallace	74	74	0.47	0.03	0.43	-0.03	17	-2	19	18.6	21.2	-2.66	16.2	17.2	-1.09
Chauncey Billups	70	68	0.43	0.07	0.35	0.02	14	1	13	18.9	18.5	0.41	16.5	15.2	1.27
Tayshaun Prince	68	69	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.20	2	13	-11	19.1	17.8	1.29	15.8	18.7	-2.88
Maurice Evans	21	23	0.14	0.36	-0.23	-0.04	6	9	-3	20.6	18.2	2.37	17.0	16.0	1.08
Carlos Delfino	12	13	0.07	0.43	-0.35	0.04	1	14	-13	18.5	18.9	-0.41	16.4	16.2	0.14
Antonio McDyess	25	26	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	0.28	-10	25	-35	22.2	17.4	4.81	15.9	16.4	-0.56

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Beno Udrih	4	4	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.12	-4	-11	7	11.0	16.5	-5.54	13.7	19.1	-5.37
Fabricio Oberto	7	8	-0.04	-0.46	0.43	-0.01	-1	-14	13	13.9	16.5	-2.64	24.0	18.3	5.70
Brent Barry	12	13	-0.06	-0.44	0.39	0.06	-4	-11	7	12.3	16.9	-4.61	22.0	18.3	3.74
Nick Van Exel	36	36	-0.07	-0.43	0.35	-0.34	9	-24	33	15.3	17.0	-1.72	21.7	16.6	5.11
Michael Finley	33	34	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	-0.03	-2	-13	11	17.3	15.6	1.73	18.4	19.2	-0.81
Rasho Nesterovic	41	40	-0.14	-0.36	0.23	-0.05	-3	-12	9	17.9	14.6	3.27	18.5	19.2	-0.74
Tim Duncan	67	66	-0.22	-0.28	0.05	-0.31	3	-18	21	16.0	17.3	-1.22	19.0	18.4	0.52
Nazr Mohammed	9	10	-0.24	-0.26	0.01	0.11	-12	-3	-9	18.3	16.0	2.32	15.3	19.3	-4.05
Robert Horry	40	40	-0.36	-0.14	-0.23	0.13	-17	2	-19	14.9	17.5	-2.62	18.9	18.8	0.14
Manu Ginobili	49	48	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.03	-13	-2	-11	15.6	17.3	-1.73	19.2	18.4	0.81
Tony Parker	61	61	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.02	-14	-1	-13	16.7	15.0	1.64	18.0	21.3	-3.27
Bruce Bowen	51	50	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	0.06	-17	2	-19	17.8	13.8	4.01	17.4	21.1	-3.72

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.44,0.51,0.47,0.39,0.43,0.37,0.33,0.3,0.25,0.26,0.24,0.15,0.11,0.15,0.16,0.19,0.21,0.26,0.2,0.22,0.18,0.24,0.28,0.3,0.27,0.21,0.13,0.2,0.16,0.12,0.11,0.05,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
PHI 120, BKN 97	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.49,0.43,0.41,0.39,0.38,0.36,0.34,0.37,0.31,0.34,0.26,0.26,0.2,0.16,0.16,0.17,0.17,0.19,0.2,0.16,0.19,0.25,0.22,0.26,0.23,0.2,0.3,0.19,0.18,0.15,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.06,0.05,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.9%
NOP 111, ORL 97	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.42,0.37,0.38,0.35,0.38,0.39,0.37,0.37,0.29,0.25,0.26,0.2,0.17,0.17,0.16,0.17,0.18,0.23,0.24,0.31,0.33,0.3,0.22,0.26,0.28,0.2,0.22,0.19,0.17,0.15,0.19,0.14,0.11,0.07,0.03,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.2%
DAL 119, BOS 101	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.46,0.46,0.4,0.41,0.43,0.43,0.37,0.31,0.29,0.23,0.16,0.18,0.15,0.21,0.17,0.13,0.14,0.16,0.2,0.21,0.18,0.16,0.14,0.16,0.2,0.24,0.14,0.11,0.09,0.11,0.09,0.05,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0	95.1%