NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	102		Excitement	4.6 [877]		MVP	Jason Terry (DAL): +17.6%
Dallas Mavericks	88		Comeback	1.0 [573]		LVP	Dirk Nowitzki (DAL): -8.9%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tim Duncan	0.14	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.09	0.06	0.01	19	56%	0.14	0	0.00	7	43%	-0.04
Manu Ginobili	0.10	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.11,0.14,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.12	-0.01	0.01	13	79%	0.15	3	-0.05	3	100%	0.01
Richard Jefferson	0.09	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.07	0.01	-0.02	12	68%	0.12	2	-0.03	4	100%	0.01
Tony Parker	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	-0.00	0.03	-0.04	16	44%	0.07	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.01
Matt Bonner	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.01	0.01	6	67%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
George Hill	0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.04	0.02	-0.03	7	39%	0.02	1	-0.01	4	50%	-0.01
Roger Mason Jr.	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Garrett Temple	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Antonio McDyess	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.05	-0.00	-0.02	5	40%	0.01	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
DeJuan Blair	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	0.00	-0.01	4	0%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jason Terry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.17,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.23,0.19,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.18	0.12	0.03	-0.02	19	61%	0.19	1	-0.02	6	100%	0.03
Jose Juan Barea	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.03	0.00	-0.04	4	62%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Kidd	0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.03	0.02	-0.01	7	31%	0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Eduardo Najera	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	0.00	3	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brendan Haywood	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Erick Dampier	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Shawn Marion	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	0.00	7	37%	-0.02	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Caron Butler	0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.06,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.06	-0.03	-0.01	17	45%	-0.01	3	-0.07	4	100%	0.02
Dirk Nowitzki	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	0.00	-0.03	0.06	24	44%	-0.09	0	0.00	6	83%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	30.6	3.4	25.9	20.0	30.4	3.3	29.5	143.0
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +53.7%

DAL -14.4%

SAS +9.8%

DAL -0.7%

SAS +1.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	DAL	NBA	SAS	DAL	NBA
this game	17.1	16.2	15.3	117.2	102.3	106.0
season	15.9	15.2		108.2	107.2
opponent	15.5	15.1		104.6	103.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	13.6	16.5	15.8	23.7	17.1
DAL	15.8	17.0	17.7	14.2	16.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tim Duncan	64	62	0.69	-0.19	0.88	-0.07	26	-12	38	17.6	15.8	1.78	17.6	12.6	5.01
Antonio McDyess	50	49	0.64	-0.14	0.78	-0.01	22	-8	30	18.2	15.6	2.65	17.9	13.9	3.95
Richard Jefferson	73	71	0.61	-0.11	0.71	-0.04	22	-8	30	17.1	16.9	0.19	16.6	14.1	2.50
Manu Ginobili	62	57	0.38	0.12	0.27	0.03	12	2	10	17.1	17.2	-0.10	16.6	15.4	1.23
George Hill	56	58	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.13	7	7	0	15.7	19.6	-3.87	16.7	15.1	1.56
Tony Parker	60	59	0.24	0.26	-0.03	0.24	0	14	-14	18.2	14.6	3.62	15.2	18.3	-3.11
Garrett Temple	1	2	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.06	2	12	-10	23.0	17.0	5.98	7.5	16.4	-8.90
Roger Mason Jr.	9	11	-0.06	0.56	-0.63	-0.04	-1	15	-16	17.4	17.1	0.39	15.4	16.3	-0.96
DeJuan Blair	22	22	-0.16	0.66	-0.82	0.08	-8	22	-30	15.4	17.7	-2.31	12.5	17.5	-4.91
Matt Bonner	38	39	-0.17	0.67	-0.84	0.18	-12	26	-38	15.8	18.1	-2.27	13.9	18.1	-4.21

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Brendan Haywood	48	49	0.02	-0.52	0.54	-0.16	6	-20	26	14.0	18.9	-4.93	18.1	15.8	2.31
Jose Juan Barea	21	18	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	0.02	-1	-13	12	14.4	16.8	-2.34	16.0	17.4	-1.38
Eduardo Najera	10	8	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	0.04	-4	-10	6	20.3	15.7	4.64	16.6	17.1	-0.51
Shawn Marion	41	41	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	0.01	-4	-10	6	16.8	15.6	1.16	14.3	19.6	-5.34
Jason Terry	74	74	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.20	-3	-11	8	14.9	24.0	-9.07	17.7	13.7	4.00
Jason Kidd	71	74	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.19	-8	-6	-2	16.2	16.3	-0.16	17.3	15.8	1.46
Dirk Nowitzki	65	67	-0.50	-0.00	-0.50	-0.06	-15	1	-16	16.7	14.7	1.96	18.0	14.1	3.82
Erick Dampier	38	38	-0.52	0.02	-0.53	0.07	-20	6	-26	18.9	14.0	4.93	15.8	18.1	-2.31
Caron Butler	62	66	-0.60	0.10	-0.69	0.02	-21	7	-28	16.8	14.7	2.07	17.4	16.1	1.25

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.43,0.4,0.4,0.36,0.38,0.37,0.36,0.33,0.35,0.34,0.44,0.4,0.38,0.42,0.47,0.44,0.46,0.39,0.29,0.24,0.21,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.16,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.08,0.14,0.07,0.03,0.05,0.11,0.13,0.08,0.06,0.14,0.19,0.14,0.11,0.07,0.01,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIN 91, CHI 81	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.43,0.41,0.44,0.43,0.34,0.35,0.33,0.32,0.34,0.35,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.37,0.3,0.29,0.29,0.24,0.19,0.16,0.16,0.19,0.12,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.13,0.07,0.07,0.14,0.12,0.13,0.11,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0	95.3%
IND 104, MIA 94	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.47,0.41,0.42,0.38,0.33,0.35,0.38,0.45,0.38,0.34,0.32,0.34,0.36,0.33,0.35,0.41,0.32,0.2,0.17,0.19,0.12,0.12,0.19,0.21,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.21,0.17,0.09,0.07,0.09,0.15,0.19,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.15,0.17,0.09,0.04,0.02,0,0,0.01,0	94.8%
BOS 112, MIA 107	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.4,0.36,0.37,0.34,0.36,0.34,0.31,0.34,0.34,0.35,0.36,0.38,0.42,0.38,0.29,0.3,0.23,0.2,0.16,0.13,0.14,0.12,0.13,0.14,0.05,0.04,0.07,0.08,0.1,0.09,0.12,0.08,0.05,0.13,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.12,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.03,0.01,0,0	94.5%