NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	76		Excitement	6.0 [591]		MVP	Tony Allen (BOS): +14.2%
Boston Celtics	85		Comeback	7.5 [258]		LVP	Michael Beasley (MIA): -18.3%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Quentin Richardson	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.15,0.15,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.08	-0.02	-0.00	10	68%	0.12	1	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Carlos Arroyo	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	-0.00	0.00	5	60%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Joel Anthony	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mario Chalmers	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	7	41%	-0.00	1	-0.03	3	67%	-0.00
Dwyane Wade	-0.08	0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,0.01,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.02	-0.07	-0.00	18	62%	0.11	7	-0.19	6	67%	-0.03
Dorell Wright	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.02	-0.01	7	14%	-0.05	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Udonis Haslem	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.04	-0.08	0.00	8	37%	-0.09	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jermaine O'Neal	-0.12	0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.13	-0.02	-0.03	14	27%	-0.10	2	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Michael Beasley	-0.18	0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.15,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.12	-0.06	-0.00	8	37%	-0.04	5	-0.14	0	0%	0.00

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tony Allen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.06	0.07	-0.02	12	58%	0.14	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Garnett	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.05	0.04	-0.03	10	62%	0.12	1	-0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Glen Davis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06	0.06	-0.02	0.08	-0.00	6	42%	0.08	1	-0.02	7	57%	-0.00
Paul Pierce	0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.04,0.03,0.06,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.01	0.03	-0.01	12	50%	0.08	1	-0.02	8	87%	0.02
Rasheed Wallace	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.01	0.00	1	80%	0.05	1	-0.02	3	67%	-0.01
Michael Finley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nate Robinson	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ray Allen	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.09	-0.02	0.01	9	36%	-0.06	3	-0.06	4	100%	0.01
Kendrick Perkins	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.05	-0.07	0.00	7	57%	0.03	4	-0.15	0	0%	0.00
Rajon Rondo	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.01,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.14	-0.14	-0.07	-0.05	0.02	11	42%	-0.03	3	-0.11	2	100%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	30.2	3.6	32.2	19.8	27.2	3.7	51.0	167.6
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

BOS +32.5%

BOS +16.7%

MIA -12.8%

BOS +16.3%

MIA -2.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	BOS	NBA	MIA	BOS	NBA
this game	16.5	15.1	15.3	83.5	93.4	106.0
season	16.2	15.5		104.4	105.7
opponent	15.7	15.4		102.1	102.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	14.0	18.3	19.6	15.4	16.5
BOS	14.3	17.7	15.6	13.4	15.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Quentin Richardson	60	58	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	-0.06	1	-10	11	16.0	17.6	-1.63	14.9	15.4	-0.45
Carlos Arroyo	61	62	-0.04	-0.46	0.43	-0.04	0	-9	9	17.8	13.9	3.89	15.6	14.0	1.63
Jermaine O'Neal	60	59	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	-0.12	2	-11	13	17.1	15.4	1.80	15.5	14.4	1.13
Joel Anthony	20	20	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.04	-3	-6	3	16.9	16.4	0.46	15.3	15.0	0.31
Michael Beasley	57	58	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.06	-3	-6	3	17.2	15.4	1.85	15.8	13.8	1.98
Mario Chalmers	38	37	-0.42	-0.08	-0.33	-0.15	-9	0	-9	14.9	17.7	-2.73	14.9	15.2	-0.32
Dorell Wright	40	42	-0.53	0.03	-0.56	-0.15	-13	4	-17	16.6	16.5	0.20	14.3	15.8	-1.44
Dwyane Wade	78	78	-0.56	0.06	-0.62	-0.24	-11	2	-13	16.0	19.6	-3.59	14.8	17.0	-2.21
Udonis Haslem	41	41	-0.59	0.09	-0.68	-0.33	-9	0	-9	15.8	17.2	-1.42	14.4	15.7	-1.27

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tony Allen	57	55	0.81	-0.31	1.12	0.31	17	-8	25	14.9	15.4	-0.48	16.3	16.9	-0.67
Glen Davis	46	46	0.67	-0.17	0.85	0.23	15	-6	21	15.0	15.3	-0.31	15.8	17.3	-1.44
Rajon Rondo	81	82	0.48	0.02	0.46	0.25	8	1	7	14.8	17.3	-2.46	16.7	15.2	1.46
Rasheed Wallace	25	25	0.41	0.09	0.31	0.20	7	2	5	15.4	15.0	0.34	17.6	16.1	1.52
Ray Allen	60	60	0.25	0.25	-0.00	0.10	5	4	1	14.8	15.6	-0.81	16.4	16.8	-0.36
Kevin Garnett	60	60	0.10	0.40	-0.30	0.13	-1	10	-11	15.8	13.7	2.12	17.3	15.1	2.19
Michael Finley	11	12	0.06	0.44	-0.38	0.00	2	7	-5	18.2	14.7	3.49	14.7	16.8	-2.16
Nate Robinson	0	1	0.06	0.44	-0.38	0.00	2	7	-5	0.0	15.1	-15.11	0.0	16.7	-16.72
Paul Pierce	68	68	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	-0.03	0	9	-9	14.7	16.3	-1.54	16.3	17.3	-1.08
Kendrick Perkins	47	46	-0.31	0.81	-1.12	-0.02	-10	19	-29	15.1	15.1	-0.05	17.2	15.9	1.24

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.51,0.55,0.53,0.51,0.43,0.51,0.53,0.46,0.48,0.49,0.55,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.41,0.39,0.41,0.42,0.39,0.3,0.46,0.45,0.34,0.2,0.17,0.12,0.15,0.22,0.28,0.27,0.3,0.32,0.42,0.34,0.38,0.62,0.73,0.74,0.84,0.87,0.89,0.95,0.99,0.99,1
Game		Similarity Score
SEA 87, NYK 89	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.5,0.46,0.47,0.43,0.39,0.37,0.38,0.38,0.4,0.35,0.4,0.47,0.47,0.42,0.42,0.44,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.39,0.3,0.33,0.37,0.31,0.3,0.25,0.24,0.21,0.17,0.21,0.23,0.22,0.29,0.38,0.43,0.52,0.57,0.73,0.79,0.85,0.97,0.96,0.95,0.97,1,1	92.4%
GSW 78, TOR 85	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.57,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.57,0.59,0.6,0.6,0.6,0.56,0.54,0.51,0.47,0.45,0.38,0.4,0.39,0.36,0.36,0.33,0.33,0.36,0.33,0.34,0.31,0.3,0.33,0.33,0.26,0.35,0.28,0.3,0.33,0.28,0.3,0.3,0.38,0.58,0.68,0.8,0.81,0.93,0.94,0.96,1,1,1	92.3%
TOR 95, CHI 103	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.5,0.46,0.43,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.55,0.52,0.53,0.49,0.46,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.4,0.39,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.44,0.44,0.46,0.42,0.41,0.43,0.36,0.22,0.29,0.21,0.2,0.22,0.23,0.17,0.29,0.38,0.44,0.52,0.53,0.58,0.79,0.76,0.87,0.9,0.85,0.98,0.99,1	92.3%