NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	91		Excitement	6.9 [408]		MVP	Marvin Williams (ATL): +25.9%
Atlanta Hawks	87		Comeback	19.2 [27]		LVP	Jamal Crawford (ATL): -22.4%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Luke Ridnour	0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.21,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.11	0.07	0.00	7	83%	0.20	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.03
Ersan Ilyasova	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.13,0.13	0.05	0.09	0.00	5	70%	0.13	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Carlos Delfino	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,0.1,0.1	-0.02	0.12	-0.00	7	44%	0.13	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.03
John Salmons	0.04	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,0.02,-0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	-0.01	0.06	0.01	17	47%	0.11	2	-0.07	6	83%	0.04
Luc Mbah a Moute	0.01	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	-0.00	0.00	8	47%	0.01	0	0.00	3	33%	-0.03
Dan Gadzuric	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.01	-0.00	5	40%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Primoz Brezec	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jerry Stackhouse	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.05	-0.00	-0.01	3	42%	-0.01	2	-0.03	6	83%	0.01
Kurt Thomas	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.02	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Brandon Jennings	-0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.07,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.21,-0.16	0.03	-0.12	0.07	20	52%	-0.10	2	-0.06	8	87%	0.02

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Marvin Williams	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.23,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26	0.26	0.21	0.06	0.01	10	85%	0.26	0	0.00	6	100%	0.03
Maurice Evans	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.00	0.00	-0.02	3	67%	0.06	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jeff Teague	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joe Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Zaza Pachulia	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	75%	0.02	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Al Horford	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.09,-0.03	-0.03	0.08	-0.10	0.02	21	57%	0.00	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Josh Smith	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.04,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	0.00	-0.08	-0.01	8	41%	-0.07	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Mike Bibby	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.06	-0.02	-0.00	5	17%	-0.08	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Joe Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.18	-0.10	-0.07	0.01	16	39%	0.02	4	-0.20	1	100%	0.00
Jamal Crawford	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.09,-0.11,-0.09,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.22	-0.22	-0.18	-0.05	-0.01	18	28%	-0.13	4	-0.10	3	67%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	29.2	2.8	34.2	19.7	27.2	3.7	46.2	163.0
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +27.5%

MIL +9.5%

MIL +6.3%

MIL +11.7%

ATL -5.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	ATL	NBA	MIL	ATL	NBA
this game	15.8	17.2	15.3	103.4	100.0	106.0
season	15.5	16.0		103.3	109.4
opponent	15.8	15.5		106.0	101.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	14.2	17.5	15.9	15.4	15.8
ATL	15.8	15.9	17.6	19.6	17.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kurt Thomas	39	39	1.01	-0.51	1.51	0.39	21	-17	38	14.8	16.5	-1.76	18.8	15.8	3.03
Ersan Ilyasova	42	41	0.51	-0.01	0.53	0.54	-1	5	-6	15.7	15.8	-0.07	15.0	19.1	-4.15
Brandon Jennings	77	77	0.49	0.01	0.47	0.34	5	-1	6	16.0	13.9	2.10	17.1	17.9	-0.82
John Salmons	82	81	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.43	1	3	-2	16.0	12.3	3.67	17.5	12.5	5.02
Carlos Delfino	62	61	0.44	0.06	0.39	0.56	-4	8	-12	16.4	14.3	2.05	16.8	18.0	-1.24
Jerry Stackhouse	26	26	0.06	0.44	-0.39	-0.18	8	-4	12	14.3	16.4	-2.05	18.0	16.8	1.24
Primoz Brezec	7	6	-0.00	0.50	-0.51	-0.03	1	3	-2	14.3	15.9	-1.59	15.8	17.3	-1.44
Luke Ridnour	33	31	-0.05	0.55	-0.61	-0.11	2	2	0	14.9	16.3	-1.39	18.3	16.6	1.69
Luc Mbah a Moute	51	52	-0.08	0.58	-0.66	-0.05	-1	5	-6	16.1	15.3	0.78	18.2	15.7	2.54
Dan Gadzuric	21	21	-0.33	0.83	-1.16	0.02	-12	16	-28	16.8	15.4	1.33	13.6	18.3	-4.68

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Joe Johnson	64	65	0.14	-0.64	0.79	-0.00	5	-9	14	18.3	14.0	4.37	16.6	13.3	3.31
Joe Smith	7	7	0.03	-0.53	0.56	-0.00	1	-5	6	19.6	17.0	2.61	17.0	15.6	1.36
Maurice Evans	24	28	-0.00	-0.50	0.49	-0.03	1	-5	6	16.7	17.3	-0.58	12.7	17.2	-4.50
Zaza Pachulia	15	15	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	0.04	-2	-2	0	16.7	17.3	-0.53	13.8	16.2	-2.35
Jeff Teague	3	4	-0.07	-0.43	0.35	0.04	-4	0	-4	15.7	17.2	-1.56	10.0	16.0	-6.02
Mike Bibby	50	48	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.31	3	-7	10	16.4	18.3	-1.91	16.0	15.4	0.60
Al Horford	72	73	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.42	-2	-2	0	17.3	16.7	0.53	16.2	13.8	2.35
Marvin Williams	70	69	-0.54	0.04	-0.58	-0.39	-5	1	-6	16.8	18.9	-2.13	16.1	14.5	1.63
Jamal Crawford	63	65	-0.58	0.08	-0.66	-0.46	-4	0	-4	16.6	18.7	-2.06	15.4	16.7	-1.22
Josh Smith	67	66	-0.76	0.26	-1.02	-0.38	-13	9	-22	17.6	15.7	1.91	16.2	14.5	1.67

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.54,0.56,0.47,0.43,0.51,0.53,0.55,0.51,0.54,0.48,0.47,0.46,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.51,0.56,0.54,0.54,0.46,0.54,0.57,0.55,0.48,0.58,0.61,0.68,0.85,0.9,0.83,0.81,0.87,0.81,0.9,0.85,0.87,0.81,0.9,0.84,0.78,0.95,0.79,0.55,0.08,0
Game		Similarity Score
LAC 89, MIN 85	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.47,0.45,0.53,0.57,0.51,0.48,0.47,0.42,0.44,0.44,0.37,0.39,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.5,0.48,0.54,0.49,0.48,0.61,0.65,0.65,0.65,0.66,0.78,0.79,0.85,0.84,0.86,0.77,0.93,0.87,0.85,0.78,0.86,0.84,0.67,0.26,0	91.8%
DET 100, MIN 97	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.57,0.6,0.61,0.58,0.61,0.64,0.65,0.57,0.55,0.58,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.38,0.38,0.37,0.39,0.46,0.54,0.58,0.67,0.61,0.58,0.55,0.51,0.52,0.61,0.64,0.77,0.78,0.79,0.77,0.84,0.85,0.85,0.78,0.88,0.89,0.81,0.86,0.88,0.83,0.75,0.78,0.57,0.31,0	91.7%
LAC 112, PHX 108	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.49,0.52,0.56,0.6,0.57,0.53,0.53,0.45,0.4,0.38,0.37,0.4,0.42,0.36,0.38,0.42,0.48,0.54,0.56,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.58,0.48,0.7,0.74,0.86,0.88,0.88,0.94,0.94,0.94,0.94,0.89,0.87,0.85,0.83,0.67,0.78,0.75,0.64,0.55,0.16,0	91.6%