NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Utah Jazz	100		Excitement	3.8 [1057]		MVP	Trevor Ariza (LAL): +12.2%
Los Angeles Lakers	113		Comeback	1.3 [1242]		LVP	Ronnie Brewer (UTA): -6.3%

Utah Jazz
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Matt Harpring	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.03	0.00	-0.01	6	57%	0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Jarron Collins	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	-0.00	0.00	-0.04	5	44%	0.04	0	0.00	6	83%	0.01
Carlos Boozer	0.03	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.10	-0.01	0.06	16	71%	0.11	4	-0.08	6	83%	0.01
Kyle Korver	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	0.01	6	50%	-0.01	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Andrei Kirilenko	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.05	-0.00	-0.01	10	36%	-0.03	1	-0.01	2	50%	-0.00
Paul Millsap	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	0.01	-0.00	0.06	13	50%	-0.03	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.01
Brevin Knight	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.06	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
CJ Miles	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	0.00	9	30%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Deron Williams	-0.06	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.00	-0.01	14	44%	-0.03	3	-0.02	8	100%	0.02
Ronnie Brewer	-0.06	0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.00	0.00	7	35%	-0.02	2	-0.04	3	67%	-0.00

Los Angeles Lakers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Trevor Ariza	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.17	0.00	0.05	10	91%	0.13	2	-0.01	3	67%	0.00
Shannon Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.06	0.00	-0.02	4	112%	0.12	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Pau Gasol	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.11	0.00	0.04	11	71%	0.10	1	-0.02	6	100%	0.01
Derek Fisher	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.03	0.00	-0.02	4	67%	0.06	1	-0.01	4	100%	0.02
Lamar Odom	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.02	0.03	-0.00	8	62%	0.07	2	-0.02	5	60%	0.01
Kobe Bryant	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.01	0.01	-0.04	17	59%	0.12	6	-0.07	7	86%	0.01
Josh Powell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	0.00	-0.00	4	60%	0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Andrew Bynum	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.03	0.00	-0.02	5	47%	0.02	2	-0.03	5	60%	-0.01
Luke Walton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	0.01	6	42%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Sasha Vujacic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.02	2	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jordan Farmar	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.3	2.8	34.7	19.0	33.1	2.8	33.4	151.9
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

LAL +55.5%

LAL +6.0%

UTA -12.2%

LAL +1.5%

UTA -0.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	UTA	LAL	NBA	UTA	LAL	NBA
this game	15.7	14.1	15.5	104.2	116.5	106.4
season	15.3	14.9		107.7	110.6
opponent	15.4	15.0		102.6	105.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
UTA	16.1	17.2	15.4	14.2	15.7
LAL	13.9	12.8	14.6	15.2	14.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Utah Jazz
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jarron Collins	31	31	-0.07	-0.43	0.37	-0.13	2	-15	17	15.3	15.9	-0.65	14.4	14.0	0.39
Brevin Knight	8	6	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	0.06	-5	-8	3	17.6	15.6	2.07	9.0	14.5	-5.46
Matt Harpring	30	29	-0.16	-0.34	0.19	-0.04	-4	-9	5	15.6	15.8	-0.19	13.8	14.3	-0.47
Ronnie Brewer	44	45	-0.17	-0.33	0.15	-0.11	-2	-11	9	15.8	15.6	0.21	14.2	14.1	0.06
CJ Miles	34	32	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.01	-8	-5	-3	16.8	15.2	1.60	13.9	14.2	-0.37
Paul Millsap	47	48	-0.25	-0.25	-0.01	-0.08	-6	-7	1	16.8	14.7	2.16	14.8	13.5	1.32
Carlos Boozer	78	81	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.16	-5	-8	3	15.0	18.9	-3.89	14.5	12.1	2.39
Kyle Korver	68	70	-0.32	-0.18	-0.15	-0.09	-8	-5	-3	15.2	17.1	-1.89	13.9	14.7	-0.86
Deron Williams	88	91	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.18	-8	-5	-3	15.6	17.6	-2.07	14.5	9.0	5.46
Andrei Kirilenko	52	52	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	0.14	-21	8	-29	16.1	15.3	0.84	13.4	15.0	-1.63

Los Angeles Lakers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Lamar Odom	68	66	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.03	15	-2	17	14.1	14.3	-0.22	16.0	15.1	0.87
Shannon Brown	44	43	0.45	0.05	0.41	-0.13	20	-7	27	13.8	14.4	-0.64	15.8	15.7	0.15
Kobe Bryant	83	80	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.05	13	0	13	14.0	14.6	-0.52	15.3	18.1	-2.80
Pau Gasol	72	72	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.13	8	5	3	14.0	14.4	-0.32	16.5	13.5	2.97
Trevor Ariza	69	68	0.29	0.21	0.09	0.12	6	7	-1	14.0	14.5	-0.58	15.6	15.9	-0.28
Sasha Vujacic	22	23	0.23	0.27	-0.04	-0.01	8	5	3	13.8	14.2	-0.45	17.3	15.2	2.01
Andrew Bynum	40	40	0.09	0.41	-0.32	0.06	1	12	-11	15.2	13.4	1.87	15.8	15.7	0.08
Luke Walton	22	23	0.07	0.43	-0.36	0.07	0	13	-13	14.5	14.0	0.49	16.0	15.6	0.36
Jordan Farmar	7	8	0.05	0.45	-0.39	0.02	1	12	-11	11.4	14.3	-2.90	19.5	15.4	4.11
Josh Powell	12	12	0.05	0.45	-0.41	0.02	1	12	-11	12.7	14.3	-1.57	9.7	16.6	-6.83
Derek Fisher	46	45	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	0.23	-8	21	-29	14.9	13.5	1.42	15.0	16.4	-1.41

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.45,0.45,0.48,0.52,0.56,0.59,0.64,0.6,0.61,0.65,0.64,0.72,0.76,0.78,0.82,0.77,0.74,0.78,0.77,0.85,0.87,0.88,0.92,0.96,0.95,0.93,0.87,0.87,0.88,0.92,0.88,0.88,0.85,0.88,0.91,0.94,0.96,0.94,0.95,0.96,0.99,0.97,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
DAL 84, UTA 99	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.47,0.5,0.56,0.53,0.59,0.59,0.61,0.64,0.71,0.8,0.8,0.82,0.77,0.75,0.74,0.8,0.81,0.82,0.9,0.87,0.92,0.91,0.86,0.88,0.89,0.88,0.84,0.91,0.93,0.91,0.93,0.95,0.94,0.94,0.98,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.3%
DEN 89, ORL 102	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.63,0.63,0.6,0.64,0.7,0.72,0.74,0.73,0.82,0.75,0.76,0.8,0.83,0.78,0.83,0.85,0.89,0.96,0.95,0.94,0.92,0.89,0.85,0.89,0.85,0.84,0.83,0.89,0.82,0.87,0.93,0.96,0.97,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.2%
MEM 86, CLE 103	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.53,0.59,0.57,0.51,0.6,0.64,0.66,0.74,0.78,0.76,0.81,0.81,0.76,0.8,0.83,0.85,0.9,0.95,0.93,0.88,0.86,0.88,0.89,0.9,0.88,0.92,0.94,0.91,0.93,0.91,0.94,0.96,0.92,0.88,0.93,0.94,0.94,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.2%