NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	92		Excitement	6.4 [505]		MVP	Dwight Howard (ORL): +14.2%
Orlando Magic	102		Comeback	2.1 [821]		LVP	Hedo Turkoglu (ORL): -13.5%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jose Calderon	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.13,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.04	0.02	-0.01	10	60%	0.10	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jamario Moon	0.05	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.01	0.01	6	67%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Carlos Delfino	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.1,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.04	-0.03	-0.02	11	50%	0.02	0	0.00	6	100%	0.04
Andrea Bargnani	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.01	0.00	4	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Parker	0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.04	0.01	0.04	8	55%	0.01	0	0.00	4	100%	0.03
Jason Kapono	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.05,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.03	-0.02	0.03	13	48%	-0.01	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.02
Rasho Nesterovic	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Chris Bosh	-0.07	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.01	0.02	19	38%	-0.07	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.04
T.J. Ford	-0.08	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.01,0.02,0.08,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.07	-0.01	0.00	14	47%	0.02	4	-0.10	2	100%	0.01

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dwight Howard	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.04,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.02	0.11	-0.02	12	62%	0.23	4	-0.09	10	70%	-0.01
Rashard Lewis	0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.07	0.05	0.02	12	58%	0.12	1	-0.02	7	100%	0.03
Keyon Dooling	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.06	0.02	0.00	5	69%	0.07	0	0.00	3	67%	0.00
Jameer Nelson	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.04	-0.00	0.01	13	63%	0.13	3	-0.10	4	75%	0.00
Maurice Evans	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.03	-0.01	0.00	12	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Keith Bogans	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.01	0.05	0.03	11	50%	0.07	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Marcin Gortat	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Hedo Turkoglu	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.09	-0.04	0.01	13	40%	-0.06	3	-0.07	4	100%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.5	1.7	31.5	15.8	27.1	1.7	32.0	133.3
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +43.9%

ORL +0.5%

ORL +16.3%

TOR -18.2%

ORL +7.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	ORL	NBA	TOR	ORL	NBA
this game	15.6	16.8	15.4	103.4	114.6	105.7
season	15.6	15.1		108.5	109.9
opponent	15.6	15.7		104.6	105.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
TOR	16.7	15.3	16.0	14.3	15.6
ORL	14.6	18.2	16.8	17.7	16.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Rasho Nesterovic	16	16	0.09	-0.59	0.68	-0.03	4	-14	18	14.8	15.7	-0.93	18.4	16.4	2.01
Jamario Moon	47	45	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	-0.04	0	-10	10	15.9	15.2	0.72	16.0	17.6	-1.68
Andrea Bargnani	30	28	-0.10	-0.40	0.31	0.05	-5	-5	0	17.6	14.5	3.11	16.2	17.0	-0.78
T.J. Ford	47	44	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	0.01	-7	-3	-4	16.2	14.9	1.36	16.5	17.1	-0.57
Jose Calderon	42	45	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.21	-3	-7	4	14.9	16.2	-1.36	17.1	16.5	0.57
Carlos Delfino	52	55	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.23	-4	-6	2	14.9	16.5	-1.52	17.2	16.1	1.18
Jason Kapono	56	58	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.21	-6	-4	-2	14.7	17.0	-2.27	17.1	16.2	0.91
Chris Bosh	73	73	-0.59	0.09	-0.68	-0.18	-14	4	-18	15.7	14.8	0.93	16.4	18.4	-2.01
Anthony Parker	82	81	-0.63	0.13	-0.75	-0.19	-15	5	-20	15.6	15.3	0.31	16.9	15.6	1.28

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Keith Bogans	66	63	0.55	-0.05	0.60	0.29	9	1	8	17.3	15.3	2.00	14.8	17.5	-2.78
Rashard Lewis	70	71	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.14	12	-2	14	16.4	18.1	-1.68	15.8	14.8	0.93
Dwight Howard	82	82	0.48	0.02	0.45	0.18	10	0	10	16.5	20.6	-4.11	15.6	15.4	0.16
Jameer Nelson	65	68	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.04	12	-2	14	16.7	17.1	-0.46	15.5	15.8	-0.31
Hedo Turkoglu	75	77	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.15	5	5	0	17.0	15.7	1.27	15.6	15.6	-0.01
Maurice Evans	52	52	0.17	0.33	-0.17	0.08	3	7	-4	16.3	17.4	-1.11	16.2	14.7	1.54
Keyon Dooling	28	25	0.10	0.40	-0.30	0.13	-1	11	-12	17.1	16.7	0.42	16.0	15.4	0.54
Marcin Gortat	7	7	0.02	0.48	-0.45	0.02	0	10	-10	20.6	16.5	4.11	15.4	15.6	-0.16

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.55,0.54,0.6,0.56,0.53,0.49,0.55,0.55,0.57,0.49,0.53,0.4,0.42,0.42,0.38,0.42,0.35,0.37,0.39,0.43,0.44,0.46,0.44,0.5,0.52,0.52,0.55,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.48,0.62,0.48,0.63,0.68,0.74,0.82,0.79,0.76,0.88,0.78,0.66,0.78,0.9,0.95,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
CLE 79, PHI 86	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.5,0.42,0.45,0.51,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.49,0.46,0.4,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.44,0.41,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.41,0.53,0.5,0.51,0.49,0.55,0.48,0.51,0.42,0.53,0.59,0.59,0.6,0.72,0.7,0.66,0.71,0.8,0.93,0.83,0.81,0.72,0.74,0.9,0.98,1,1	93.5%
DAL 97, PHX 109	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.55,0.62,0.62,0.56,0.53,0.53,0.49,0.49,0.55,0.49,0.48,0.43,0.4,0.38,0.38,0.42,0.46,0.36,0.31,0.36,0.39,0.41,0.5,0.42,0.45,0.51,0.48,0.61,0.48,0.48,0.58,0.56,0.57,0.64,0.66,0.81,0.71,0.72,0.68,0.83,0.76,0.78,0.75,0.96,0.99,1,1	93.5%
MIL 86, DET 96	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.53,0.57,0.53,0.52,0.49,0.53,0.48,0.42,0.4,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.42,0.44,0.56,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.57,0.57,0.53,0.52,0.52,0.45,0.48,0.62,0.56,0.71,0.82,0.87,0.78,0.75,0.75,0.81,0.83,0.84,0.9,0.9,0.84,0.98,1,1	93.3%