NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	91		Excitement	6.5 [525]		MVP	Luol Deng (CHI): +18.1%
Chicago Bulls	96		Comeback	1.6 [855]		LVP	Dwyane Wade (MIA): -18.0%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Udonis Haslem	0.14	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.14	0.07	0.07	-0.00	6	69%	0.14	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Antoine Walker	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.05,0.09,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.05,0.05,0.04,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.01	0.01	14	59%	0.10	1	-0.02	6	100%	0.05
James Posey	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	0.01	0.00	3	83%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shaquille O'Neal	0.01	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.06	-0.02	0.03	14	61%	0.07	2	-0.06	3	33%	-0.03
Jason Kapono	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	4	40%	0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Jason Williams	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.06,-0.09,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01	0.01	0.01	0.03	8	53%	0.01	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.01
Alonzo Mourning	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.04
Gary Payton	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.09	-0.02	-0.00	3	0%	-0.06	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Eddie Jones	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.06	-0.07	0.00	4	20%	-0.06	1	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Dwyane Wade	-0.18	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.19,-0.18,-0.15,-0.12,-0.18	-0.03	-0.15	0.01	16	54%	-0.00	5	-0.18	7	100%	0.04

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Luol Deng	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.18,0.18,0.15,0.19,0.19,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.21,0.23,0.18	0.18	0.19	0.02	0.03	22	67%	0.20	1	-0.02	5	100%	0.03
Thabo Sefolosha	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.05	0.02	0.00	6	64%	0.07	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Ben Gordon	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.05,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,0	-0.00	-0.07	0.07	0.00	19	49%	0.12	5	-0.12	11	91%	0.05
P.J. Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	0.01	2	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Duhon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	2	37%	-0.01	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Andres Nocioni	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,-0.02	-0.02	0.04	-0.04	0.01	15	52%	0.02	1	-0.03	3	100%	0.01
Tyrus Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	3	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ben Wallace	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.08	-0.04	0.00	6	29%	-0.04	2	-0.09	2	0%	-0.03
Kirk Hinrich	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.16	-0.02	-0.04	7	14%	-0.05	4	-0.09	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	32.8	3.7	32.7	17.7	29.3	3.5	39.5	159.1
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHI +3.9%

CHI +5.2%

CHI +35.2%

CHI +4.6%

CHI +1.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	CHI	NBA	MIA	CHI	NBA
this game	16.5	14.4	15.4	96.8	104.3	104.5
season	16.0	14.5		102.4	103.1
opponent	15.9	15.6		98.1	104.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	16.7	18.1	17.3	14.1	16.5
CHI	12.6	13.8	14.0	17.2	14.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Antoine Walker	58	56	0.12	-0.62	0.74	-0.29	14	-19	33	15.5	18.2	-2.72	16.0	11.9	4.13
Eddie Jones	47	46	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	0.01	-4	-1	-3	17.0	16.1	0.83	13.5	15.3	-1.72
Gary Payton	27	26	-0.18	-0.32	0.13	0.02	-7	2	-9	16.3	16.6	-0.29	15.0	14.2	0.89
Alonzo Mourning	29	26	-0.21	-0.29	0.07	0.05	-9	4	-13	15.6	17.0	-1.38	13.7	14.7	-1.04
Jason Williams	60	58	-0.23	-0.27	0.05	-0.31	3	-8	11	16.6	16.4	0.30	13.9	15.2	-1.27
Jason Kapono	31	31	-0.24	-0.26	0.03	-0.18	-2	-3	1	16.1	16.8	-0.71	15.0	14.1	0.85
James Posey	54	53	-0.24	-0.26	0.01	-0.36	4	-9	13	15.7	17.7	-2.01	15.4	13.1	2.34
Shaquille O'Neal	50	52	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.22	-6	1	-7	18.3	14.5	3.84	14.5	14.3	0.23
Dwyane Wade	64	62	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.27	-7	2	-9	17.1	15.4	1.63	14.1	15.1	-0.99
Udonis Haslem	50	50	-0.52	0.02	-0.55	-0.20	-11	6	-17	16.7	16.4	0.25	12.9	16.2	-3.33

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ben Gordon	83	86	0.67	-0.17	0.85	0.20	16	-11	27	13.5	22.6	-9.04	16.5	17.4	-0.91
Ben Wallace	87	87	0.56	-0.06	0.61	0.32	8	-3	11	14.3	15.6	-1.27	16.4	18.1	-1.73
Luol Deng	88	88	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.34	7	-2	9	14.4	15.2	-0.89	16.7	14.7	2.00
Andres Nocioni	58	61	0.35	0.15	0.20	0.32	1	4	-3	14.4	14.4	0.08	15.6	18.3	-2.71
Thabo Sefolosha	35	35	0.28	0.22	0.05	0.07	7	-2	9	14.2	14.5	-0.28	16.7	16.5	0.23
P.J. Brown	25	27	0.11	0.39	-0.28	0.05	2	3	-1	12.0	15.3	-3.24	19.6	15.3	4.28
Kirk Hinrich	37	39	0.10	0.40	-0.30	0.27	-6	11	-17	15.5	13.6	1.90	16.1	16.9	-0.80
Chris Duhon	29	29	-0.04	0.54	-0.59	0.16	-7	12	-19	15.7	13.8	1.88	17.0	16.4	0.61
Tyrus Thomas	18	18	-0.06	0.56	-0.62	0.03	-3	8	-11	18.1	13.5	4.61	15.6	16.8	-1.15

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.6,0.56,0.52,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.4,0.47,0.4,0.48,0.4,0.44,0.45,0.4,0.42,0.46,0.49,0.44,0.44,0.56,0.59,0.54,0.6,0.63,0.73,0.7,0.73,0.77,0.78,0.79,0.85,0.8,0.87,0.87,0.89,0.86,0.89,0.84,0.9,0.81,0.66,0.96,0.93,0.93,0.9,1
Game		Similarity Score
ORL 84, UTA 99	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.41,0.37,0.36,0.44,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.44,0.38,0.44,0.51,0.39,0.41,0.44,0.54,0.59,0.58,0.62,0.63,0.61,0.61,0.7,0.81,0.78,0.72,0.8,0.74,0.78,0.74,0.81,0.85,0.76,0.91,0.86,0.71,0.73,0.8,0.89,0.99,1,1	93.7%
PHI 96, IND 107	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.51,0.47,0.48,0.4,0.37,0.42,0.42,0.38,0.33,0.37,0.42,0.44,0.42,0.44,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.58,0.6,0.7,0.7,0.76,0.82,0.78,0.72,0.77,0.84,0.79,0.85,0.85,0.88,0.86,0.88,0.95,0.89,0.93,0.93,0.98,1,1,1	93.5%
MIL 112, WAS 121	0.5,0.49,0.5,0.51,0.53,0.54,0.45,0.45,0.43,0.45,0.45,0.49,0.46,0.43,0.49,0.42,0.49,0.42,0.44,0.41,0.36,0.39,0.56,0.54,0.44,0.49,0.52,0.63,0.61,0.64,0.7,0.77,0.75,0.78,0.79,0.71,0.72,0.78,0.84,0.85,0.92,0.9,0.94,0.85,0.82,0.86,0.84,0.91,0.91,1	93.4%