NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	84		Excitement	7.7 [309]		MVP	Chauncey Billups (DET): +27.5%
Cleveland Cavaliers	82		Comeback	1.9 [336]		LVP	Ben Wallace (DET): -12.8%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chauncey Billups	0.28	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.1,0.1,0.19,0.28,0.28	0.02	0.24	-0.01	8	60%	0.34	3	-0.07	9	89%	0.06
Rasheed Wallace	0.23	0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.06,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.17,0.18,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.24,0.24,0.3,0.3,0.47,0.47,0.42,0.23	0.12	0.10	-0.00	17	59%	0.23	0	0.00	7	29%	-0.15
Tayshaun Prince	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.03	0.03	0.00	12	54%	0.08	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.01
Maurice Evans	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Richard Hamilton	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.05	-0.05	0.02	16	53%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Delk	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.04	-0.00	-0.02	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Lindsey Hunter	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.05	-0.05	0.00	4	25%	-0.07	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Antonio McDyess	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.05	-0.07	0.00	6	50%	-0.02	3	-0.11	2	50%	-0.01
Ben Wallace	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.06	-0.06	0.01	4	29%	-0.09	1	-0.04	6	33%	-0.05

Cleveland Cavaliers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.11	0.04	0.01	11	73%	0.15	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Donyell Marshall	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.14,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.03	0.05	-0.00	6	64%	0.14	1	-0.06	2	100%	0.02
Anderson Varejao	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.04	0.02	0.00	3	75%	0.07	0	0.00	2	100%	0.03
Ira Newble	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Drew Gooden	0,0,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	-0.00	11	54%	0.04	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Ronald Murray	0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.09	0.03	-0.01	10	20%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eric Snow	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.05	-0.04	-0.02	3	33%	-0.05	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
LeBron James	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.15,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.02,-0.05,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.13,-0.07,0,-0.15,-0.04,-0.09	-0.09	-0.03	-0.00	0.06	20	55%	0.24	7	-0.33	18	83%	0.12
Damon Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.07	-0.03	-0.00	3	0%	-0.07	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.2	3.5	35.6	17.0	27.8	3.8	42.1	154.0
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DET +8.6%

CLE -11.6%

DET +20.9%

DET +26.1%

DET +6.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	CLE	NBA	DET	CLE	NBA
this game	18.5	17.5	15.6	103.7	103.8	104.4
season	16.9	16.2		108.3	105.6
opponent	15.5	15.8		103.9	101.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	17.0	15.2	21.3	21.6	18.5
CLE	14.9	18.4	19.8	17.4	17.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ben Wallace	70	66	0.68	-0.18	0.86	0.50	6	-4	10	18.9	15.7	3.22	17.4	18.1	-0.71
Chauncey Billups	67	65	0.56	-0.06	0.62	0.41	5	-3	8	18.9	16.4	2.51	17.4	17.7	-0.28
Rasheed Wallace	77	75	0.55	-0.05	0.60	0.46	3	-1	4	18.4	20.7	-2.36	17.4	18.2	-0.81
Tayshaun Prince	81	79	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.44	2	0	2	18.5	0.0	18.51	17.5	0.0	17.48
Richard Hamilton	56	54	0.48	0.02	0.47	0.31	6	-4	10	19.5	16.3	3.22	18.2	16.0	2.17
Maurice Evans	1	0	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.00	0	2	-2	1.0	18.7	-17.73	0.0	17.5	-17.48
Tony Delk	10	10	-0.00	0.50	-0.51	0.05	-2	4	-6	14.5	19.1	-4.57	19.2	17.2	1.97
Lindsey Hunter	28	29	-0.04	0.54	-0.57	0.11	-5	7	-12	17.5	19.0	-1.48	15.7	18.5	-2.78
Antonio McDyess	15	17	-0.23	0.73	-0.97	-0.09	-5	7	-12	17.1	18.8	-1.77	18.1	17.3	0.81

Cleveland Cavaliers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ira Newble	1	0	0.04	-0.54	0.58	0.04	0	-2	2	2.0	17.7	-15.68	0.0	18.5	-18.51
Damon Jones	31	31	0.01	-0.51	0.52	-0.20	7	-9	16	16.0	18.4	-2.38	17.4	19.2	-1.81
Drew Gooden	40	41	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.03	1	-3	4	17.7	17.3	0.44	18.9	18.1	0.75
Donyell Marshall	40	41	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.20	3	-5	8	16.4	18.6	-2.14	17.3	19.7	-2.41
Eric Snow	58	61	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.21	-5	3	-8	18.2	15.5	2.73	19.2	16.4	2.80
Anderson Varejao	35	36	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.27	-3	1	-4	17.0	17.9	-0.91	17.5	19.3	-1.76
LeBron James	78	81	-0.54	0.04	-0.58	-0.48	-2	0	-2	17.7	2.0	15.68	18.5	0.0	18.51
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	43	43	-0.54	0.04	-0.58	-0.39	-5	3	-8	18.7	16.1	2.62	20.5	16.2	4.27
Ronald Murray	69	71	-0.64	0.14	-0.78	-0.46	-6	4	-10	17.5	17.2	0.32	18.2	21.0	-2.85

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.54,0.49,0.55,0.61,0.61,0.61,0.61,0.59,0.57,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.47,0.45,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.54,0.61,0.56,0.46,0.5,0.45,0.43,0.42,0.48,0.52,0.62,0.65,0.58,0.52,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.43,0.52,0.38,0.58,0.47,0.54,0.4,0.38,0.37,0.14,0.15,0
Game		Similarity Score
LAL 89, HOU 88	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.53,0.52,0.61,0.63,0.65,0.64,0.68,0.65,0.58,0.51,0.46,0.42,0.44,0.38,0.38,0.46,0.48,0.56,0.54,0.57,0.64,0.61,0.5,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.61,0.55,0.52,0.48,0.52,0.41,0.44,0.4,0.42,0.38,0.3,0.43,0.47,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.55,0.36,0.16,0.04,0	91.8%
SAC 101, DEN 99	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.46,0.47,0.47,0.43,0.43,0.38,0.46,0.4,0.4,0.38,0.42,0.44,0.44,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.54,0.49,0.5,0.46,0.4,0.45,0.55,0.45,0.56,0.52,0.52,0.56,0.52,0.44,0.42,0.34,0.34,0.43,0.58,0.47,0.54,0.54,0.25,0.28,0.24,0.05,0	91.7%
NYK 87, TOR 80	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.48,0.5,0.54,0.55,0.55,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.61,0.58,0.65,0.73,0.56,0.48,0.48,0.58,0.48,0.47,0.24,0.42,0.47,0.35,0.39,0.39,0.37,0.43,0.15,0	91.3%