NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	90		Excitement	4.4 [949]		MVP	Ben Gordon (CHI): +14.5%
Chicago Bulls	109		Comeback	1.2 [1157]		LVP	Shaquille O'Neal (MIA): -12.9%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jason Williams	0.12	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.01	0.01	9	77%	0.15	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.02
James Posey	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	-0.00	0.00	6	50%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Antoine Walker	0.01	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.03	0.01	-0.03	11	46%	0.03	2	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Derek Anderson	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.05	-0.00	0.05	6	67%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shandon Anderson	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Wayne Simien	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	2	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Udonis Haslem	-0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	5	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	10	60%	-0.04
Gary Payton	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	2	75%	0.03	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Michael Doleac	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dwyane Wade	-0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.01	0.01	22	49%	0.05	4	-0.11	9	89%	0.01
Alonzo Mourning	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	0.00	0	0%	0.00	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Shaquille O'Neal	-0.13	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.13,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.17	-0.00	-0.04	8	36%	-0.03	7	-0.09	6	0%	-0.06

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ben Gordon	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.02	0.04	-0.09	18	55%	0.21	3	-0.06	8	62%	0.00
Kirk Hinrich	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.05,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.02	0.03	-0.06	17	51%	0.11	1	-0.00	9	89%	0.03
Andres Nocioni	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.06	-0.01	0.02	11	59%	0.05	2	-0.02	10	90%	0.02
Luol Deng	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	0.01	0.02	16	52%	0.04	0	0.00	8	62%	-0.02
Luke Schenscher	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.01	0.00	1	100%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tyson Chandler	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	67%	0.02	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.01
Michael Sweetney	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.04	-0.01	0.02	5	62%	0.05	1	-0.03	6	33%	-0.06
Malik Allen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.01	0.00	1	100%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Eric Piatkowski	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Othella Harrington	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Duhon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.05	0.00	-0.03	3	30%	-0.01	1	-0.00	4	75%	0.00
Jannero Pargo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	4	50%	-0.01	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	32.1	3.7	33.2	18.7	35.0	2.8	36.2	161.6
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHI +17.7%

CHI +9.3%

CHI +0.8%

CHI +21.2%

CHI +0.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	CHI	NBA	MIA	CHI	NBA
this game	16.6	13.7	15.6	93.8	116.0	104.4
season	15.5	14.4		106.1	102.6
opponent	16.1	15.5		102.1	102.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	16.2	17.0	16.8	16.3	16.6
CHI	12.6	16.4	12.5	13.7	13.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Wayne Simien	6	5	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.06	2	-21	23	14.7	16.7	-2.02	16.4	13.6	2.83
Derek Anderson	20	18	-0.03	-0.47	0.45	-0.06	1	-20	21	16.1	16.7	-0.58	16.5	13.1	3.43
Alonzo Mourning	16	13	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	0.02	-2	-17	15	16.4	16.6	-0.23	15.1	13.5	1.57
Shandon Anderson	11	10	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	0.06	-4	-15	11	14.5	16.8	-2.28	13.8	13.7	0.09
Michael Doleac	28	26	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.13	0	-19	19	17.3	16.2	1.07	15.7	13.0	2.67
Gary Payton	30	27	-0.17	-0.33	0.15	0.24	-14	-5	-9	16.6	16.6	0.01	13.3	13.9	-0.55
James Posey	41	41	-0.20	-0.30	0.11	0.01	-7	-12	5	16.6	16.5	0.08	13.0	14.2	-1.20
Shaquille O'Neal	50	52	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	0.17	-16	-3	-13	16.5	16.7	-0.17	12.5	15.2	-2.65
Udonis Haslem	63	63	-0.33	-0.17	-0.15	-0.03	-10	-9	-1	17.4	14.9	2.52	13.5	14.1	-0.56
Jason Williams	71	73	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	0.10	-16	-3	-13	16.4	17.1	-0.70	13.5	14.5	-0.97
Antoine Walker	63	63	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.01	-14	-5	-9	15.7	18.3	-2.61	13.7	13.8	-0.08
Dwyane Wade	81	79	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.02	-15	-4	-11	17.1	13.8	3.27	13.7	13.9	-0.25

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ben Gordon	84	86	0.49	0.01	0.47	-0.13	21	-2	23	13.4	16.4	-3.00	16.9	13.3	3.64
Kirk Hinrich	80	80	0.48	0.02	0.45	-0.08	19	0	19	13.4	15.8	-2.42	16.8	15.6	1.20
Andres Nocioni	65	67	0.38	0.12	0.26	-0.06	15	4	11	13.4	14.5	-1.15	16.4	16.9	-0.48
Michael Sweetney	54	55	0.37	0.13	0.23	0.04	11	8	3	13.6	13.8	-0.18	17.2	15.7	1.49
Luol Deng	64	65	0.25	0.25	-0.00	-0.07	11	8	3	13.7	13.7	0.08	16.9	15.9	1.02
Malik Allen	35	36	0.20	0.30	-0.11	-0.04	8	11	-3	13.6	13.8	-0.24	16.2	16.8	-0.59
Chris Duhon	24	24	0.10	0.40	-0.29	-0.01	4	15	-11	14.4	13.5	0.93	15.7	16.8	-1.14
Tyson Chandler	20	20	0.10	0.40	-0.29	-0.04	5	14	-9	12.4	14.1	-1.68	17.9	16.2	1.69
Luke Schenscher	15	13	0.08	0.42	-0.33	0.03	2	17	-15	15.9	13.3	2.55	13.8	17.0	-3.14
Othella Harrington	12	14	0.04	0.46	-0.43	0.04	0	19	-19	16.8	13.3	3.57	19.1	16.1	3.02
Jannero Pargo	13	15	0.02	0.48	-0.46	0.02	0	19	-19	14.9	13.5	1.39	11.6	17.5	-5.88
Eric Piatkowski	4	5	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.03	-1	20	-21	16.5	13.6	2.90	13.6	16.7	-3.13

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.56,0.59,0.53,0.61,0.57,0.6,0.62,0.66,0.58,0.6,0.62,0.65,0.69,0.68,0.73,0.66,0.67,0.61,0.67,0.67,0.69,0.74,0.72,0.67,0.67,0.79,0.8,0.85,0.88,0.89,0.88,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
POR 91, DET 111	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.47,0.48,0.47,0.53,0.53,0.57,0.6,0.61,0.6,0.59,0.54,0.58,0.6,0.67,0.65,0.67,0.72,0.77,0.69,0.69,0.59,0.59,0.67,0.63,0.69,0.72,0.76,0.67,0.79,0.83,0.91,0.96,0.92,0.94,0.92,0.96,0.94,0.96,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.0%
HOU 95, SAS 103	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.53,0.57,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.57,0.63,0.62,0.62,0.65,0.64,0.66,0.75,0.71,0.7,0.7,0.68,0.69,0.74,0.67,0.67,0.67,0.59,0.69,0.64,0.58,0.71,0.77,0.85,0.86,0.85,0.91,0.89,0.95,0.98,0.98,0.97,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.96,0.99,1,0.99,0.99,1	95.8%
ATL 86, LAC 109	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.54,0.62,0.57,0.55,0.57,0.55,0.55,0.51,0.65,0.63,0.58,0.6,0.6,0.65,0.7,0.73,0.71,0.69,0.69,0.7,0.78,0.79,0.74,0.7,0.7,0.79,0.77,0.83,0.78,0.89,0.88,0.93,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.8%