NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	96		Excitement	11.8 [20]		MVP	Robert Horry (SAS): +103.4%
Detroit Pistons	95		Comeback	8.8 [108]		LVP	Tim Duncan (SAS): -54.4%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Robert Horry	1.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.04,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.19,0.24,0.63,0.63,0.63,0.63,0.63,0.61,1.03	0.10	0.94	-0.00	12	78%	1.21	3	-0.18	3	67%	-0.02
Nazr Mohammed	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.00	0.01	4	75%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brent Barry	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	-0.01	0.00	3	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Devin Brown	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	0	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Bruce Bowen	-0.02	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.02	-0.00	8	62%	0.08	3	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Tony Parker	-0.13	0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.11	-0.03	-0.01	15	47%	0.06	6	-0.19	0	0%	0.00
Manu Ginobili	-0.45	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.04,-0.05,-0.32,-0.38,-0.38,-0.45,-0.45,-0.45	-0.09	-0.36	-0.01	16	41%	-0.36	2	-0.09	5	100%	0.03
Tim Duncan	-0.54	0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.28,-0.42,-0.48,-0.54,-0.54,-0.54,-0.54	-0.11	-0.42	0.01	24	44%	-0.48	2	-0.06	11	36%	-0.43

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tayshaun Prince	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	-0.00	0.12	-0.00	10	50%	0.17	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Rasheed Wallace	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.12,-0.12,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.1,0.1	0.10	-0.02	0.12	0.00	15	40%	0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chauncey Billups	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.03,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.16,0.18,0.18,0.11,0.15,0.08,0.05	0.05	0.03	0.01	-0.01	26	54%	0.08	1	-0.03	11	91%	0.10
Antonio McDyess	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.1,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.00	0.00	6	64%	0.06	1	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Ben Wallace	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	9	54%	0.00	2	-0.03	6	83%	0.00
Lindsey Hunter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.01	3	25%	-0.03	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.02
Richard Hamilton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.37	-0.37	-0.10	-0.27	-0.00	15	47%	-0.23	5	-0.14	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	28.3	3.4	35.5	19.7	30.0	3.6	41.3	1.5	20.1	183.3
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	1.9	17.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +93.4%

DET -29.5%

SAS +15.0%

DET -36.1%

SAS +7.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	DET	NBA	SAS	DET	NBA
this game	16.8	19.3	15.5	109.1	108.0	104.0
season	16.3	16.7		105.8	103.5
opponent	15.9	15.6		98.9	98.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
SAS	16.5	16.0	19.3	16.3	15.5	16.8
DET	18.6	17.5	17.7	21.6	25.1	19.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Manu Ginobili	73	75	0.87	-0.37	1.25	0.46	14	-13	27	16.2	20.1	-3.89	19.7	16.8	2.87
Tim Duncan	78	80	0.61	-0.11	0.73	0.47	5	-4	9	16.8	16.9	-0.07	19.3	19.1	0.19
Bruce Bowen	72	72	0.49	0.01	0.49	0.46	1	0	1	17.8	12.5	5.31	19.5	18.4	1.13
Robert Horry	53	56	0.22	0.28	-0.07	0.33	-4	5	-9	15.9	18.3	-2.35	18.6	20.6	-1.99
Nazr Mohammed	45	40	0.17	0.33	-0.16	0.14	1	0	1	18.0	15.7	2.28	20.3	18.5	1.80
Tony Parker	76	74	0.15	0.35	-0.19	0.54	-13	14	-27	17.1	15.0	2.13	18.5	23.5	-5.00
Devin Brown	7	7	0.09	0.41	-0.32	0.00	3	-2	5	14.3	17.1	-2.78	19.1	19.3	-0.17
Brent Barry	36	36	-0.11	0.61	-0.72	-0.05	-2	3	-5	16.1	17.3	-1.19	19.7	19.0	0.63

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chauncey Billups	73	76	0.12	-0.62	0.73	-0.09	7	-8	15	19.5	18.1	1.48	16.9	16.3	0.59
Ben Wallace	81	79	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.45	8	-9	17	19.1	21.3	-2.16	16.8	16.8	0.07
Antonio McDyess	28	29	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	0.13	-14	13	-27	19.9	19.0	0.88	16.6	17.0	-0.43
Richard Hamilton	79	82	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.53	3	-4	7	19.4	18.4	0.95	17.2	11.5	5.73
Rasheed Wallace	67	68	-0.50	-0.00	-0.50	-0.62	4	-5	9	19.3	19.4	-0.17	17.0	16.4	0.51
Lindsey Hunter	32	27	-0.57	0.07	-0.65	-0.31	-9	8	-17	18.1	20.0	-1.94	16.1	17.2	-1.05
Tayshaun Prince	80	79	-0.61	0.11	-0.71	-0.49	-4	3	-7	19.5	17.6	1.84	16.6	18.9	-2.28

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.45,0.46,0.51,0.56,0.61,0.61,0.59,0.57,0.63,0.58,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.47,0.4,0.4,0.35,0.3,0.29,0.36,0.44,0.39,0.46,0.5,0.54,0.46,0.45,0.42,0.3,0.34,0.29,0.35,0.34,0.37,0.52,0.46,0.38,0.47,0.58,0.53,0.53,0.47,0.67,0.68,0.63,0.68,0.4,0.46,0.55,0.72,0.77,0.73,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIN 95, NYK 92	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.53,0.53,0.41,0.43,0.41,0.39,0.42,0.45,0.43,0.42,0.45,0.38,0.35,0.29,0.32,0.36,0.34,0.33,0.42,0.36,0.27,0.29,0.37,0.37,0.39,0.45,0.35,0.38,0.38,0.41,0.56,0.52,0.5,0.52,0.53,0.43,0.38,0.41,0.65,0.54,0.61,0.55,0.57,0.26,0.54,0.69,0.72,0.45,0.73,0	88.3%
BOS 101, PHI 98	0.5,0.51,0.56,0.54,0.53,0.5,0.45,0.41,0.39,0.33,0.38,0.44,0.43,0.52,0.44,0.42,0.36,0.42,0.33,0.28,0.36,0.41,0.46,0.58,0.67,0.54,0.62,0.57,0.49,0.45,0.48,0.55,0.38,0.45,0.34,0.29,0.36,0.46,0.57,0.62,0.53,0.47,0.47,0.54,0.46,0.45,0.45,0.57,0.42,0.5,0.61,0.78,0.66,0.91,0	88.0%
UTA 112, DAL 107	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.43,0.38,0.4,0.44,0.57,0.53,0.47,0.38,0.4,0.42,0.37,0.42,0.44,0.42,0.44,0.39,0.37,0.34,0.42,0.39,0.25,0.29,0.38,0.35,0.52,0.37,0.37,0.36,0.34,0.38,0.38,0.29,0.47,0.53,0.54,0.53,0.62,0.63,0.33,0.42,0.46,0.52,0.54,0.77,0.28,0	87.5%