NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	69		Excitement	5.2 [822]		MVP	Chauncey Billups (DET): +11.4%
San Antonio Spurs	84		Comeback	2.5 [807]		LVP	Antonio McDyess (DET): -15.6%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chauncey Billups	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.10	0.03	0.01	16	66%	0.13	1	-0.02	6	100%	0.01
Ben Wallace	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.02	0.02	-0.01	6	50%	0.04	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Darvin Ham	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	0.00	0.02	1	100%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ronald Dupree	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Carlos Arroyo	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	3	33%	-0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Rasheed Wallace	-0.07	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	5	40%	-0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Lindsey Hunter	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.01	-0.00	5	20%	-0.04	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Richard Hamilton	-0.10	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.14	0.02	-0.02	21	33%	-0.07	2	-0.03	1	0%	-0.01
Tayshaun Prince	-0.14	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.12,-0.13,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.11	-0.04	-0.02	12	39%	-0.07	3	-0.06	4	75%	0.01
Antonio McDyess	-0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.12	-0.05	-0.02	8	12%	-0.12	1	-0.04	1	0%	-0.02

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Manu Ginobili	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.12,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,0.01,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.08	0.08	0.05	16	72%	0.20	4	-0.10	4	100%	0.03
Nazr Mohammed	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.03	0.01	-0.02	8	56%	0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Glenn Robinson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rasho Nesterovic	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tim Duncan	0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.05	-0.01	-0.03	22	49%	0.03	3	-0.06	5	80%	0.01
Robert Horry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.01	-0.01	0.03	6	50%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Beno Udrih	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Brent Barry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Devin Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Tony Parker	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.14,-0.14,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.11	-0.01	-0.05	17	42%	0.04	4	-0.11	2	50%	-0.00
Bruce Bowen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.11	-0.02	-0.06	6	0%	-0.08	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	31.7	3.4	31.2	20.8	28.4	3.6	35.4	154.6
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +30.6%

SAS +6.6%

SAS +13.7%

DET -7.8%

SAS +7.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	SAS	NBA	DET	SAS	NBA
this game	16.7	17.1	15.5	81.2	98.8	104.0
season	16.7	16.3		103.5	105.8
opponent	15.6	15.9		98.4	98.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	15.3	18.6	18.2	15.1	16.7
SAS	16.0	18.3	16.1	18.3	17.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Darvin Ham	3	3	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.03	-1	-14	13	8.7	17.0	-8.37	15.3	17.2	-1.87
Ronald Dupree	3	3	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.03	-1	-14	13	8.7	17.0	-8.37	15.3	17.2	-1.87
Carlos Arroyo	26	24	-0.06	-0.44	0.37	-0.03	-1	-14	13	15.8	17.2	-1.40	17.0	17.2	-0.25
Rasheed Wallace	59	59	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	0.01	-3	-12	9	16.4	17.5	-1.09	17.5	16.3	1.15
Richard Hamilton	72	69	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	0.03	-11	-4	-7	16.5	18.2	-1.76	16.6	19.4	-2.75
Lindsey Hunter	26	29	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.01	-11	-4	-7	16.8	16.7	0.10	19.1	16.1	2.93
Antonio McDyess	41	42	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.09	-9	-6	-3	16.5	16.9	-0.40	17.9	16.4	1.42
Chauncey Billups	73	74	-0.37	-0.13	-0.23	-0.10	-9	-6	-3	17.1	14.5	2.61	17.6	13.9	3.71
Tayshaun Prince	55	56	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.10	-12	-3	-9	17.5	15.4	2.07	16.3	18.7	-2.40
Ben Wallace	67	66	-0.56	0.06	-0.63	-0.07	-17	2	-19	17.5	13.8	3.69	16.5	19.5	-3.07

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tony Parker	73	73	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.08	14	1	13	17.2	16.5	0.75	16.4	18.7	-2.24
Tim Duncan	74	76	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.17	10	5	5	16.7	19.8	-3.07	17.0	14.7	2.32
Manu Ginobili	68	68	0.45	0.05	0.40	-0.02	16	-1	17	17.1	17.1	0.03	17.1	15.5	1.59
Glenn Robinson	11	11	0.29	0.21	0.09	-0.03	11	4	7	14.6	17.5	-2.88	19.4	16.4	3.01
Robert Horry	52	52	0.28	0.22	0.07	-0.10	13	2	11	16.4	18.3	-1.85	16.9	16.5	0.42
Nazr Mohammed	43	41	0.26	0.24	0.01	0.14	4	11	-7	18.6	15.6	2.96	16.4	17.0	-0.63
Bruce Bowen	64	64	0.20	0.30	-0.11	0.02	6	9	-3	16.8	18.1	-1.27	16.0	19.1	-3.19
Brent Barry	17	17	0.07	0.43	-0.37	0.10	-1	16	-17	17.7	17.0	0.71	15.2	17.1	-1.88
Beno Udrih	12	12	0.01	0.49	-0.48	-0.02	1	14	-13	16.5	17.2	-0.75	18.7	16.4	2.24
Rasho Nesterovic	1	1	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.09	3	12	-9	21.0	17.1	3.90	3.0	16.9	-13.90
Devin Brown	10	10	-0.01	0.51	-0.51	0.05	-2	17	-19	20.9	16.6	4.26	19.3	16.4	2.90

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.46,0.45,0.44,0.42,0.35,0.29,0.31,0.33,0.31,0.4,0.43,0.42,0.42,0.44,0.44,0.38,0.37,0.39,0.44,0.49,0.44,0.46,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.54,0.55,0.62,0.63,0.56,0.68,0.66,0.66,0.71,0.75,0.88,0.96,0.99,1,0.99,0.95,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
SAC 87, POR 95	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.46,0.47,0.43,0.39,0.35,0.38,0.37,0.3,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.36,0.38,0.42,0.38,0.4,0.35,0.33,0.36,0.39,0.42,0.39,0.51,0.54,0.48,0.55,0.58,0.55,0.45,0.45,0.62,0.69,0.67,0.75,0.66,0.7,0.79,0.84,0.9,0.96,0.96,0.97,1,0.98,1,1,1	94.6%
CHH 84, CHI 93	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.48,0.45,0.42,0.42,0.37,0.34,0.35,0.32,0.34,0.36,0.43,0.36,0.4,0.47,0.44,0.49,0.46,0.47,0.54,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.58,0.54,0.48,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.52,0.59,0.52,0.52,0.56,0.6,0.62,0.62,0.7,0.71,0.77,0.83,0.88,0.9,0.96,0.98,0.98,0.99,1	94.2%
BOS 87, CHH 99	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.46,0.51,0.51,0.44,0.4,0.39,0.39,0.38,0.38,0.36,0.35,0.36,0.4,0.49,0.4,0.44,0.42,0.42,0.46,0.36,0.33,0.36,0.42,0.45,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.62,0.65,0.61,0.73,0.67,0.64,0.7,0.78,0.75,0.76,0.85,0.94,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,1	93.9%