NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	101		Excitement	6.5 [547]		MVP	Beno Udrih (SAS): +11.3%
Phoenix Suns	95		Comeback	1.4 [499]		LVP	Steve Nash (PHX): -16.7%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Beno Udrih	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.10	0.01	0.00	3	133%	0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tim Duncan	0.08	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0,-0.03,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.03	0.06	0.01	24	60%	0.20	4	-0.12	4	75%	0.00
Bruce Bowen	0.07	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.02	0.03	-0.02	6	64%	0.11	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.00
Tony Massenburg	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.01	0.00	1	100%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Manu Ginobili	0.01	0,0,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.06	0.04	-0.02	15	53%	0.08	4	-0.07	6	83%	0.02
Brent Barry	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.03	0.02	-0.00	3	50%	0.04	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Tony Parker	-0.03	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,0,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03	-0.05	-0.00	-0.02	21	43%	-0.00	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Nazr Mohammed	-0.06	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.01	0.01	3	44%	-0.03	1	-0.03	3	67%	-0.00
Robert Horry	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.06	-0.03	0.00	11	30%	-0.10	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01

Phoenix Suns
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jim Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.15,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.05	0.03	-0.01	5	90%	0.17	2	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Amar'e Stoudemire	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.03,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.11,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.01	-0.01	0.04	-0.02	0.02	32	56%	0.08	3	-0.09	11	91%	0.05
Quentin Richardson	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.07	-0.00	-0.04	3	0%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Shawn Marion	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.02	0.02	8	50%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Steven Hunter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	2	17%	-0.06	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Joe Johnson	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	17	41%	-0.02	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Steve Nash	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.17	-0.17	-0.06	-0.11	-0.01	20	48%	-0.06	3	-0.11	4	75%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.0	3.5	31.5	17.8	30.2	3.8	42.3	155.1
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +34.2%

SAS +0.9%

SAS +7.4%

SAS +6.8%

SAS +0.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	PHX	NBA	SAS	PHX	NBA
this game	16.9	14.1	15.5	108.6	102.2	104.0
season	16.3	13.5		105.8	112.9
opponent	16.0	15.6		106.2	98.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	16.8	18.1	16.9	15.7	16.9
PHX	14.5	11.9	15.2	14.9	14.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Robert Horry	70	64	0.72	-0.22	0.94	0.25	16	-10	26	17.0	16.5	0.54	14.7	12.8	1.83
Manu Ginobili	72	74	0.59	-0.09	0.68	0.15	15	-9	24	16.1	19.6	-3.54	13.5	16.4	-2.87
Tim Duncan	79	81	0.51	-0.01	0.52	0.33	6	0	6	16.7	17.8	-1.06	14.4	12.2	2.20
Tony Parker	75	74	0.39	0.11	0.29	0.34	2	4	-2	16.8	17.4	-0.63	13.7	15.6	-1.94
Bruce Bowen	71	71	0.28	0.22	0.05	0.42	-5	11	-16	16.4	18.5	-2.12	13.6	15.7	-2.09
Brent Barry	43	41	0.13	0.37	-0.24	0.07	2	4	-2	19.0	15.0	4.03	16.0	12.6	3.42
Beno Udrih	18	19	0.11	0.39	-0.29	-0.01	4	2	2	17.4	16.8	0.63	15.6	13.7	1.94
Tony Massenburg	4	4	-0.06	0.56	-0.61	0.03	-3	9	-12	20.5	16.7	3.78	10.0	14.3	-4.27
Nazr Mohammed	33	37	-0.17	0.67	-0.85	0.03	-7	13	-20	16.5	17.1	-0.52	12.9	14.9	-1.94

Phoenix Suns
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Steven Hunter	24	23	-0.05	-0.45	0.41	-0.08	1	-7	8	15.5	13.6	1.96	18.9	16.2	2.64
Jim Jackson	50	50	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.21	-2	-4	2	14.1	14.0	0.12	17.6	16.1	1.47
Quentin Richardson	55	56	-0.32	-0.18	-0.13	-0.14	-6	0	-6	14.7	13.2	1.44	16.1	18.1	-1.99
Steve Nash	83	82	-0.39	-0.11	-0.29	-0.28	-4	-2	-2	13.5	18.6	-5.06	17.1	15.3	1.82
Amar'e Stoudemire	87	88	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.38	-2	-4	2	14.1	14.5	-0.44	17.0	15.4	1.57
Shawn Marion	83	82	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	-0.25	-9	3	-12	13.9	15.3	-1.36	16.5	19.9	-3.43
Joe Johnson	83	84	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	-0.29	-8	2	-10	14.0	15.1	-1.14	16.6	19.9	-3.33

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.49,0.46,0.5,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.47,0.4,0.34,0.4,0.42,0.46,0.44,0.46,0.46,0.54,0.54,0.5,0.46,0.43,0.39,0.42,0.29,0.21,0.17,0.14,0.18,0.26,0.21,0.19,0.15,0.11,0.16,0.12,0.14,0.15,0.27,0.08,0.16,0.1,0.02,0
Game		Similarity Score
BKN 107, MIL 98	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.51,0.47,0.45,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.49,0.46,0.44,0.42,0.42,0.46,0.46,0.42,0.39,0.44,0.42,0.42,0.46,0.49,0.4,0.37,0.34,0.3,0.3,0.32,0.29,0.13,0.15,0.22,0.25,0.3,0.15,0.1,0.11,0.15,0.08,0.15,0.22,0.14,0.07,0.03,0.01,0	94.2%
HOU 91, GSW 84	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.55,0.54,0.58,0.57,0.55,0.53,0.55,0.51,0.56,0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.39,0.36,0.39,0.4,0.46,0.5,0.45,0.43,0.42,0.45,0.36,0.35,0.25,0.24,0.2,0.23,0.18,0.15,0.19,0.18,0.21,0.12,0.13,0.15,0.22,0.07,0.07,0,0,0	93.7%
ORL 104, TOR 93	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.43,0.46,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.53,0.49,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.53,0.54,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.5,0.4,0.43,0.39,0.39,0.33,0.23,0.26,0.34,0.27,0.26,0.25,0.22,0.15,0.15,0.17,0.15,0.21,0.19,0.16,0.15,0.03,0.03,0.01,0	93.6%