NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	121		Excitement	7.0 [452]		MVP	Brent Barry (SAS): +44.4%
Phoenix Suns	114		Comeback	4.1 [167]		LVP	Bruce Bowen (SAS): -8.3%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Brent Barry	0.44	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.2,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.44	0.20	0.24	-0.01	12	87%	0.44	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Robert Horry	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.08	0.05	0.00	7	75%	0.13	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Tony Parker	0.12	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.03	0.06	-0.03	22	60%	0.23	4	-0.12	4	25%	-0.00
Tim Duncan	0.08	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08	-0.03	0.07	-0.04	21	54%	0.18	3	-0.10	10	80%	0.04
Rasho Nesterovic	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nazr Mohammed	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.00	-0.02	0.00	7	56%	0.01	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Manu Ginobili	-0.05	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.02	-0.02	0.02	10	61%	-0.01	2	-0.04	13	69%	-0.02
Beno Udrih	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.02	-0.00	3	0%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bruce Bowen	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.06	-0.02	-0.00	5	20%	-0.05	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Phoenix Suns
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Amar'e Stoudemire	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.12	0.09	0.03	21	68%	0.21	2	-0.04	18	83%	0.04
Jim Jackson	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.17,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.09	0.04	-0.02	16	62%	0.17	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Steven Hunter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.01	0.02	-0.01	6	56%	0.08	1	-0.05	4	75%	0.01
Steve Nash	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,0.04,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	0.01	0.01	22	59%	0.12	6	-0.15	5	100%	0.02
Quentin Richardson	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	0.02	9	39%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Leandro Barbosa	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.02	-0.05	-0.00	6	42%	-0.02	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Shawn Marion	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.09	0.00	-0.02	6	21%	-0.05	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.6	2.0	31.1	17.7	32.2	3.7	43.2	158.5
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +43.1%

PHX -2.0%

SAS +6.0%

SAS +2.0%

SAS +0.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	PHX	NBA	SAS	PHX	NBA
this game	15.5	13.3	15.5	119.8	115.2	104.0
season	16.3	13.5		105.8	112.9
opponent	16.0	15.6		106.2	98.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	14.1	15.9	16.8	15.0	15.5
PHX	14.7	14.1	11.3	13.2	13.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Brent Barry	72	69	0.80	-0.30	1.10	0.30	17	-10	27	15.0	16.8	-1.79	13.4	13.1	0.28
Robert Horry	59	56	0.71	-0.21	0.93	0.24	16	-9	25	15.5	15.4	0.14	12.9	13.8	-0.92
Beno Udrih	25	26	0.49	0.01	0.49	-0.00	17	-10	27	14.0	16.0	-2.03	13.7	13.2	0.54
Manu Ginobili	80	79	0.47	0.03	0.43	0.23	8	-1	9	15.0	17.1	-2.09	12.7	15.5	-2.77
Tim Duncan	80	78	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.34	4	3	1	16.2	12.7	3.56	14.1	10.4	3.70
Nazr Mohammed	47	48	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.09	3	4	-1	15.5	15.4	0.09	13.5	13.1	0.48
Tony Parker	76	74	-0.02	0.52	-0.53	0.28	-10	17	-27	16.0	14.0	2.03	13.0	14.2	-1.21
Rasho Nesterovic	10	9	-0.16	0.66	-0.82	-0.01	-5	12	-17	15.6	15.5	0.13	13.0	13.3	-0.32
Bruce Bowen	56	56	-0.26	0.76	-1.01	0.18	-15	22	-37	15.6	15.4	0.23	13.3	13.2	0.11

Phoenix Suns
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Steven Hunter	62	61	-0.15	-0.35	0.19	-0.13	-1	-6	5	14.1	11.9	2.15	15.7	15.2	0.43
Steve Nash	83	87	-0.16	-0.34	0.19	-0.27	4	-11	15	13.4	12.8	0.57	15.5	15.6	-0.18
Quentin Richardson	86	88	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.36	2	-9	11	13.0	15.2	-2.23	15.6	14.4	1.26
Leandro Barbosa	28	25	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.04	-12	5	-17	13.6	13.2	0.39	14.6	15.8	-1.12
Shawn Marion	80	83	-0.43	-0.07	-0.35	-0.16	-9	2	-11	13.0	14.6	-1.59	15.2	16.7	-1.51
Jim Jackson	85	87	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.20	-10	3	-13	12.9	15.8	-2.90	15.5	15.4	0.07
Amar'e Stoudemire	71	74	-0.58	0.08	-0.66	-0.31	-9	2	-11	13.6	12.6	0.96	15.8	14.7	1.02

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.43,0.41,0.39,0.41,0.46,0.49,0.55,0.47,0.4,0.3,0.38,0.3,0.33,0.35,0.37,0.44,0.41,0.44,0.44,0.39,0.4,0.33,0.38,0.48,0.58,0.61,0.64,0.58,0.55,0.52,0.52,0.67,0.75,0.66,0.48,0.48,0.42,0.38,0.41,0.35,0.33,0.07,0.07,0.01,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
CLE 95, CHI 87	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.45,0.46,0.46,0.51,0.46,0.47,0.43,0.42,0.44,0.46,0.44,0.45,0.34,0.38,0.31,0.39,0.46,0.44,0.42,0.39,0.39,0.37,0.42,0.43,0.51,0.58,0.64,0.71,0.65,0.55,0.56,0.63,0.64,0.62,0.62,0.49,0.33,0.27,0.21,0.29,0.1,0.14,0.1,0.09,0.01,0	92.2%
CLE 100, DEN 92	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.44,0.44,0.43,0.42,0.41,0.41,0.45,0.47,0.4,0.32,0.37,0.38,0.45,0.42,0.47,0.42,0.44,0.42,0.44,0.41,0.45,0.54,0.5,0.54,0.46,0.45,0.48,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.62,0.63,0.67,0.68,0.58,0.57,0.38,0.43,0.44,0.36,0.41,0.28,0.27,0.21,0.14,0.04,0	91.7%
CHI 127, DAL 124	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.43,0.42,0.29,0.36,0.37,0.32,0.31,0.37,0.42,0.36,0.35,0.38,0.36,0.33,0.38,0.42,0.47,0.39,0.46,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.42,0.45,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.64,0.62,0.62,0.59,0.63,0.7,0.75,0.81,0.62,0.51,0.38,0.37,0.47,0.59,0.46,0.19,0.26,0.07,0,0	91.7%