NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	102		Excitement	6.2 [620]		MVP	Juan Dixon (WAS): +12.6%
Washington Wizards	95		Comeback	3.0 [215]		LVP	Gilbert Arenas (WAS): -22.2%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Udonis Haslem	0.10	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.1,0.1	0.05	0.05	0.01	9	67%	0.13	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Damon Jones	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07	0.03	0.05	0.00	11	62%	0.13	2	-0.05	4	75%	-0.00
Keyon Dooling	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.04	0.02	-0.02	8	56%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eddie Jones	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.02,0,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	0.02	-0.00	9	64%	0.07	1	-0.02	7	86%	0.02
Alonzo Mourning	0.05	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.03	0.02	-0.00	8	70%	0.09	2	-0.04	4	100%	0.02
Michael Doleac	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	0.02	-0.00	3	33%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shandon Anderson	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dwyane Wade	-0.05	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.14,-0.14,-0.12,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.18,-0.2,-0.17,-0.14,-0.14,-0.11,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.03,-0.04,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05	-0.10	0.03	-0.03	27	53%	0.14	8	-0.19	4	75%	-0.01

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Juan Dixon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.12,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.07	0.04	-0.01	11	73%	0.18	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Larry Hughes	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.06	0.05	0.00	13	59%	0.11	0	0.00	6	100%	0.02
Brendan Haywood	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.07	0.01	0.02	11	62%	0.05	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Antawn Jamison	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	-0.02	-0.04	22	48%	0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Michael Ruffin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	1	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jared Jeffries	0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.07	-0.02	-0.01	6	33%	-0.01	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Gilbert Arenas	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.03,-0.07,-0.1,-0.13,-0.1,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.18,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.24,-0.24,-0.27,-0.27,-0.28,-0.27,-0.22,-0.22	-0.22	-0.17	-0.07	-0.02	19	43%	-0.06	6	-0.16	8	50%	-0.05

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	30.3	3.6	29.6	18.8	30.1	3.5	33.3	149.2
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +24.1%

MIA +10.4%

MIA +17.6%

WAS -1.2%

WAS -0.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	WAS	NBA	MIA	WAS	NBA
this game	16.8	15.5	15.5	112.1	109.2	104.0
season	15.7	14.7		107.9	104.7
opponent	15.5	15.5		105.5	101.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	15.8	17.0	16.6	18.0	16.8
WAS	14.8	14.3	17.7	15.3	15.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Damon Jones	77	74	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.31	7	0	7	16.2	20.2	-3.99	15.9	13.4	2.48
Dwyane Wade	83	78	0.49	0.01	0.47	0.25	8	-1	9	16.7	18.2	-1.55	15.6	14.8	0.80
Udonis Haslem	77	72	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.34	4	3	1	16.6	17.9	-1.21	15.6	15.0	0.60
Alonzo Mourning	66	63	0.44	0.06	0.37	0.14	10	-3	13	16.8	16.8	0.05	16.1	13.9	2.18
Eddie Jones	78	75	0.42	0.08	0.35	0.22	7	0	7	17.5	13.1	4.38	15.1	18.2	-3.10
Keyon Dooling	32	32	0.09	0.41	-0.32	0.06	1	6	-5	17.7	16.4	1.36	15.9	15.3	0.65
Michael Doleac	25	24	0.06	0.44	-0.37	0.15	-3	10	-13	16.8	16.8	-0.05	13.9	16.1	-2.18
Shandon Anderson	17	17	0.02	0.48	-0.46	-0.01	1	6	-5	16.6	16.9	-0.30	14.2	15.8	-1.64

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jared Jeffries	38	40	0.18	-0.68	0.86	-0.03	7	-14	21	14.4	16.3	-1.95	16.5	17.1	-0.55
Brendan Haywood	60	65	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.25	3	-10	13	15.5	15.4	0.07	16.0	19.0	-3.08
Juan Dixon	52	53	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.26	-3	-4	1	15.8	15.0	0.87	18.2	14.9	3.33
Gilbert Arenas	87	91	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.29	-7	0	-7	15.5	0.0	15.49	16.8	0.0	16.84
Larry Hughes	87	91	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.29	-7	0	-7	15.5	0.0	15.49	16.8	0.0	16.84
Antawn Jamison	80	84	-0.54	0.04	-0.59	-0.28	-9	2	-11	15.5	15.3	0.23	16.7	19.0	-2.35
Michael Ruffin	31	31	-0.62	0.12	-0.75	-0.07	-19	12	-31	16.2	15.1	1.04	17.2	16.6	0.54

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.55,0.52,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.56,0.57,0.62,0.53,0.51,0.44,0.49,0.52,0.58,0.59,0.54,0.49,0.44,0.51,0.6,0.69,0.72,0.62,0.45,0.42,0.38,0.31,0.17,0.23,0.18,0.15,0.11,0.07,0.17,0.28,0.21,0.2,0.07,0.01,0.05,0.06,0.02,0
Game		Similarity Score
HOU 109, DEN 99	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.46,0.41,0.47,0.55,0.51,0.51,0.6,0.57,0.56,0.6,0.62,0.53,0.46,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.46,0.46,0.5,0.48,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.35,0.45,0.41,0.27,0.26,0.19,0.13,0.18,0.15,0.23,0.28,0.3,0.15,0.07,0.01,0,0,0,0	93.3%
GSW 110, CHA 103	0.5,0.49,0.56,0.54,0.52,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.49,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.54,0.6,0.66,0.58,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.44,0.44,0.51,0.54,0.46,0.5,0.48,0.52,0.67,0.58,0.55,0.45,0.32,0.18,0.17,0.16,0.11,0.19,0.18,0.15,0.2,0.09,0.17,0.08,0.05,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0	93.0%
HOU 108, GSW 107	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.54,0.47,0.5,0.42,0.41,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.51,0.54,0.45,0.42,0.45,0.42,0.49,0.54,0.49,0.54,0.56,0.46,0.64,0.78,0.71,0.69,0.61,0.52,0.43,0.38,0.38,0.31,0.24,0.2,0.16,0.26,0.15,0.12,0.2,0.27,0.17,0.24,0.07,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.02,0	93.0%