NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	90		Excitement	5.5 [698]		MVP	Kobe Bryant (LAL): +29.5%
Los Angeles Lakers	98		Comeback	3.5 [639]		LVP	Tim Duncan (SAS): -10.9%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Manu Ginobili	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.07	0.00	0.01	12	70%	0.13	2	-0.07	6	83%	0.01
Malik Rose	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.01	0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Hedo Turkoglu	-0.00	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0	0.01	-0.01	0.00	14	53%	0.05	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Rasho Nesterovic	-0.01	0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01	-0.05	0.00	-0.04	14	43%	0.04	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Tony Parker	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01	-0.07	0.00	-0.06	18	47%	0.06	4	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Bruce Bowen	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	3	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Robert Horry	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	-0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Devin Brown	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	2	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tim Duncan	-0.11	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.07	-0.02	0.02	13	50%	-0.06	2	-0.05	12	75%	-0.00

Los Angeles Lakers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kobe Bryant	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.05,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.21,0.21,0.23,0.29,0.29,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.29	0.29	0.15	0.11	-0.03	27	63%	0.29	0	0.00	13	77%	0.01
Shaquille O'Neal	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,0.01,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11	0.11	0.02	0.08	-0.02	18	60%	0.17	2	-0.06	11	73%	0.02
Slava Medvedenko	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.02	-0.00	4	60%	0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Derek Fisher	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.02	-0.00	2	67%	0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Karl Malone	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.01	8	50%	0.02	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.00
Devean George	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	25%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Kareem Rush	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.02	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Gary Payton	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.05	-0.04	-0.00	11	36%	-0.05	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.4	3.6	34.0	20.8	31.1	4.6	34.3	154.8
league avg	47.8	2.4	27.9	14.3	24.8	2.1	29.8	150.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

LAL +28.3%

LAL +11.5%

LAL +0.5%

LAL +8.5%

LAL +1.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	LAL	NBA	SAS	LAL	NBA
this game	16.4	16.5	15.7	102.3	112.6	100.5
season	15.9	15.4		100.1	102.8
opponent	15.6	15.8		99.0	92.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	15.3	17.0	19.2	14.4	16.4
LAL	16.0	17.3	15.0	17.6	16.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Malik Rose	20	20	0.04	-0.54	0.57	-0.14	6	-14	20	15.9	16.6	-0.61	15.3	16.8	-1.49
Robert Horry	14	13	-0.03	-0.47	0.45	0.03	-2	-6	4	15.9	16.5	-0.67	13.8	17.0	-3.11
Manu Ginobili	57	55	-0.09	-0.41	0.31	-0.24	5	-13	18	16.0	17.2	-1.24	16.5	16.6	-0.11
Devin Brown	27	26	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.07	-8	0	-8	19.0	15.3	3.72	16.2	16.6	-0.49
Hedo Turkoglu	61	62	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.25	-3	-5	2	16.0	17.3	-1.21	16.7	16.0	0.69
Bruce Bowen	43	42	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.03	-11	3	-14	16.2	16.6	-0.46	17.1	15.9	1.16
Tony Parker	76	76	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.21	-7	-1	-6	16.3	17.4	-1.15	16.1	18.9	-2.76
Tim Duncan	80	82	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.29	-6	-2	-4	16.4	16.2	0.19	16.5	16.2	0.31
Rasho Nesterovic	62	59	-0.55	0.05	-0.60	-0.14	-14	6	-20	16.7	15.8	0.87	17.4	14.5	2.94

Los Angeles Lakers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Shaquille O'Neal	82	82	0.57	-0.07	0.65	0.31	9	-1	10	16.3	19.2	-2.87	16.7	12.5	4.21
Kobe Bryant	82	83	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.25	10	-2	12	16.3	19.6	-3.30	16.1	21.8	-5.70
Derek Fisher	34	33	0.39	0.11	0.29	0.16	8	0	8	15.6	17.1	-1.49	16.1	16.6	-0.53
Kareem Rush	23	24	0.39	0.11	0.27	0.12	9	-1	10	16.7	16.4	0.21	17.6	16.0	1.66
Karl Malone	76	76	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.12	6	2	4	16.2	18.2	-1.93	16.2	18.1	-1.93
Gary Payton	69	70	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.14	4	4	0	16.6	16.1	0.48	16.5	16.3	0.18
Slava Medvedenko	16	18	0.14	0.36	-0.23	0.11	1	7	-6	18.5	16.0	2.46	16.2	16.5	-0.25
Devean George	53	54	-0.08	0.58	-0.66	0.12	-7	15	-22	17.2	15.4	1.73	16.5	16.2	0.30

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.57,0.52,0.5,0.55,0.47,0.37,0.33,0.29,0.34,0.35,0.34,0.32,0.32,0.35,0.37,0.39,0.44,0.39,0.42,0.33,0.22,0.22,0.29,0.26,0.33,0.3,0.33,0.32,0.35,0.44,0.52,0.6,0.61,0.7,0.74,0.71,0.76,0.9,0.89,0.91,0.93,0.97,0.99,0.99,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIL 92, ORL 117	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.5,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.41,0.37,0.33,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.38,0.4,0.4,0.35,0.37,0.39,0.36,0.36,0.39,0.33,0.25,0.27,0.37,0.31,0.39,0.39,0.3,0.32,0.29,0.34,0.44,0.6,0.71,0.7,0.66,0.75,0.86,0.98,0.99,1,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	94.4%
MIN 86, MIL 91	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.5,0.42,0.39,0.41,0.39,0.45,0.37,0.36,0.34,0.36,0.38,0.32,0.38,0.42,0.42,0.32,0.34,0.28,0.28,0.3,0.25,0.32,0.4,0.36,0.39,0.42,0.39,0.48,0.45,0.44,0.48,0.64,0.62,0.74,0.71,0.72,0.85,0.92,0.94,0.93,0.9,0.98,0.94,0.92,1	93.3%
DAL 92, NOH 104	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.48,0.46,0.44,0.49,0.49,0.43,0.4,0.37,0.32,0.35,0.36,0.34,0.32,0.4,0.33,0.3,0.29,0.29,0.31,0.23,0.27,0.18,0.24,0.26,0.27,0.27,0.21,0.29,0.25,0.31,0.37,0.56,0.6,0.66,0.58,0.67,0.75,0.88,0.96,0.96,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	93.3%