NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	83		Excitement	3.7 [1072]		MVP	Jeff Foster (IND): +12.5%
Indiana Pacers	94		Comeback	1.4 [926]		LVP	Al Harrington (IND): -14.0%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Malik Allen	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.05	-0.00	0.01	9	67%	0.04	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eddie Jones	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.05	-0.00	0.02	10	62%	0.02	1	-0.00	4	100%	0.01
Caron Butler	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	0.03	0.01	7	55%	0.03	1	-0.02	6	100%	0.00
Rasual Butler	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.04	0.00	0.04	2	100%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Udonis Haslem	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brian Grant	-0.05	0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	10	45%	0.02	2	-0.07	2	100%	-0.00
Dwyane Wade	-0.05	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.06	-0.01	-0.02	13	50%	-0.02	3	-0.04	6	67%	-0.00
Rafer Alston	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.08	-0.01	-0.00	3	14%	-0.04	2	-0.04	1	100%	0.00
Lamar Odom	-0.13	0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.10	-0.03	0.00	15	41%	-0.07	3	-0.06	4	50%	-0.02

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jeff Foster	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.11	0.01	-0.01	10	91%	0.16	3	-0.03	2	100%	0.00
Reggie Miller	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.09	0.02	0.00	4	93%	0.11	0	0.00	6	100%	0.03
Anthony Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	-0.00	3	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Austin Croshere	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	2	60%	0.01	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Jermaine O'Neal	0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.01	0.01	18	54%	0.03	2	-0.04	5	40%	-0.02
Jonathan Bender	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	0.02	5	50%	-0.03	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jamaal Tinsley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.09	-0.00	-0.07	9	37%	0.02	3	-0.05	1	100%	0.01
Metta World Peace	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.00	0.01	12	52%	-0.02	4	-0.05	3	67%	-0.00
Al Harrington	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.13	-0.01	-0.00	7	35%	-0.08	3	-0.06	6	50%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	30.6	3.6	31.3	0.2	35.3	3.5	29.6	134.1
league avg	47.8	2.4	27.9	14.3	24.8	2.1	29.8	150.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

IND +23.4%

IND +5.6%

IND +16.8%

IND +3.1%

IND +1.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	IND	NBA	MIA	IND	NBA
this game	16.6	17.3	15.7	98.8	109.3	100.5
season	16.2	16.7		99.3	101.1
opponent	15.7	15.9		94.7	98.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	15.3	17.9	19.6	13.8	16.6
IND	16.0	17.2	14.7	21.2	17.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Malik Allen	34	36	0.05	-0.55	0.59	-0.13	6	-17	23	16.8	16.5	0.29	18.7	16.2	2.43
Rasual Butler	5	6	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.23	8	-19	27	7.4	17.2	-9.80	24.8	16.7	8.15
Udonis Haslem	5	6	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.23	8	-19	27	7.4	17.2	-9.80	24.8	16.7	8.15
Rafer Alston	23	24	-0.05	-0.45	0.41	0.04	-3	-8	5	18.2	16.0	2.20	16.8	17.4	-0.59
Eddie Jones	72	72	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.26	-5	-6	1	15.8	21.3	-5.50	17.3	16.9	0.48
Lamar Odom	75	75	-0.49	-0.01	-0.49	0.04	-18	7	-25	17.0	13.1	3.93	16.6	22.0	-5.44
Caron Butler	79	80	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	0.06	-19	8	-27	17.2	7.4	9.80	16.7	24.8	-8.15
Dwyane Wade	73	76	-0.54	0.04	-0.58	-0.13	-14	3	-17	16.9	14.8	2.07	17.3	16.8	0.52
Brian Grant	54	55	-0.55	0.05	-0.61	-0.03	-18	7	-25	16.8	16.3	0.44	16.5	18.7	-2.22

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Reggie Miller	61	60	0.64	-0.14	0.79	-0.15	27	-16	43	16.5	19.2	-2.74	17.6	14.2	3.43
Jermaine O'Neal	61	60	0.63	-0.13	0.76	-0.07	24	-13	37	16.6	18.8	-2.18	18.0	13.2	4.78
Jeff Foster	64	62	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.10	12	-1	13	17.2	17.4	-0.21	15.7	19.3	-3.60
Jamaal Tinsley	56	56	0.42	0.08	0.33	0.18	8	3	5	16.8	18.1	-1.25	16.6	16.6	0.07
Metta World Peace	74	73	0.36	0.14	0.21	0.27	3	8	-5	17.0	18.7	-1.74	16.2	19.5	-3.37
Anthony Johnson	34	32	0.08	0.42	-0.33	0.17	-3	14	-17	19.1	16.1	3.03	15.5	17.3	-1.86
Jonathan Bender	33	31	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.06	-2	13	-15	18.1	16.7	1.40	16.9	16.5	0.45
Al Harrington	35	36	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	0.31	-11	22	-33	18.5	16.4	2.17	17.6	15.9	1.69
Austin Croshere	12	10	-0.07	0.57	-0.64	0.02	-3	14	-17	17.0	17.3	-0.30	10.8	17.4	-6.61

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.54,0.48,0.51,0.53,0.55,0.61,0.55,0.49,0.47,0.46,0.42,0.51,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.56,0.56,0.49,0.55,0.61,0.67,0.63,0.62,0.69,0.73,0.76,0.84,0.84,0.93,0.96,0.93,0.95,0.94,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIN 100, UTA 117	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.53,0.49,0.53,0.55,0.55,0.51,0.47,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.56,0.51,0.56,0.56,0.54,0.56,0.56,0.59,0.54,0.57,0.63,0.75,0.83,0.81,0.85,0.93,0.97,0.95,0.97,0.97,0.99,1,1,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.2%
HOU 91, DAL 101	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.48,0.51,0.5,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.47,0.44,0.51,0.49,0.56,0.52,0.53,0.48,0.46,0.56,0.61,0.7,0.71,0.72,0.75,0.73,0.84,0.91,0.95,0.94,0.96,0.96,0.93,0.92,0.95,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.1%
BKN 99, CHA 113	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.5,0.44,0.45,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.51,0.52,0.47,0.44,0.51,0.56,0.59,0.48,0.51,0.54,0.59,0.7,0.69,0.75,0.85,0.81,0.84,0.87,0.95,0.97,0.96,0.97,0.97,0.99,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.7%