NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Indiana Pacers	87		Excitement	6.3 [540]		MVP	Jamaal Tinsley (IND): +12.2%
Miami Heat	94		Comeback	1.8 [840]		LVP	Metta World Peace (IND): -34.2%

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jamaal Tinsley	0.12	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.13	0.01	0.02	8	100%	0.18	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Johnson	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	3	50%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jermaine O'Neal	-0.01	0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01	-0.03	0.01	-0.01	21	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	16	69%	-0.01
Jonathan Bender	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01	-0.02	-0.00	-0.01	4	40%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Reggie Miller	-0.03	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	0.01	2	80%	-0.00	2	-0.03	1	100%	0.01
Fred Jones	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.04	-0.03	0.00	2	17%	-0.07	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.03
Jeff Foster	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.05	-0.02	0.01	2	50%	-0.01	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01
Al Harrington	-0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.16,-0.16	-0.06	-0.07	0.03	12	46%	-0.12	2	-0.05	4	50%	-0.06
Metta World Peace	-0.34	0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.23,-0.23,-0.29,-0.34,-0.34,-0.34,-0.35,-0.34	-0.18	-0.18	-0.02	18	33%	-0.27	3	-0.07	7	57%	-0.04

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Malik Allen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.06	0.02	0.00	9	65%	0.08	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Rasual Butler	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.04	0.03	0.00	1	150%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Udonis Haslem	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.01	0.00	1	100%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dwyane Wade	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.03	0.03	-0.01	15	60%	0.14	4	-0.14	12	92%	0.02
Rafer Alston	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.00	4	62%	0.03	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Eddie Jones	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.06	0.01	-0.03	12	46%	0.06	3	-0.07	2	100%	0.02
Caron Butler	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.00	0.02	8	50%	-0.04	1	-0.02	8	100%	0.03
Brian Grant	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.07,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.05	-0.03	-0.01	7	43%	-0.01	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Lamar Odom	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07	-0.07	-0.11	0.00	-0.04	9	53%	0.05	4	-0.12	12	42%	-0.04

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.5	3.5	29.5	20.2	31.6	3.6	56.2	170.1
league avg	47.8	2.4	27.9	14.3	24.8	2.1	29.8	150.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +56.9%

IND -2.0%

MIA +11.8%

IND -16.0%

IND -0.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	IND	MIA	NBA	IND	MIA	NBA
this game	16.7	15.3	15.7	96.7	104.4	100.5
season	16.7	16.2		101.1	99.3
opponent	15.9	15.7		98.8	94.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
IND	16.3	19.3	16.4	15.0	16.7
MIA	17.2	15.0	17.1	12.7	15.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Fred Jones	37	37	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	-0.02	0	-7	7	17.4	16.1	1.27	16.6	14.5	2.12
Jonathan Bender	21	19	-0.13	-0.37	0.23	-0.05	-3	-4	1	16.1	16.8	-0.67	11.7	16.3	-4.57
Al Harrington	51	51	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.20	1	-8	9	16.8	16.4	0.43	15.6	15.1	0.52
Jamaal Tinsley	61	61	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.33	3	-10	13	15.7	18.6	-2.90	15.3	15.4	-0.10
Anthony Johnson	31	31	-0.29	-0.21	-0.09	0.09	-13	6	-19	18.0	15.9	2.10	14.4	15.8	-1.41
Metta World Peace	70	72	-0.33	-0.17	-0.17	-0.31	-1	-6	5	16.6	16.8	-0.25	16.2	12.1	4.04
Jermaine O'Neal	77	79	-0.38	-0.12	-0.27	-0.33	-2	-5	3	16.2	19.5	-3.28	15.3	15.8	-0.54
Jeff Foster	49	47	-0.44	-0.06	-0.39	-0.06	-13	6	-19	17.8	15.3	2.50	16.1	14.5	1.55
Reggie Miller	53	53	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.28	-7	0	-7	16.1	17.4	-1.27	14.5	16.6	-2.12

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Lamar Odom	67	69	0.77	-0.27	1.05	0.36	14	-7	21	14.8	16.8	-1.99	16.6	17.0	-0.39
Caron Butler	76	75	0.51	-0.01	0.51	0.24	9	-2	11	15.0	17.4	-2.47	17.1	14.4	2.71
Dwyane Wade	79	79	0.50	-0.00	0.51	0.24	9	-2	11	15.3	15.8	-0.54	16.4	18.7	-2.36
Brian Grant	60	60	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.35	-1	8	-9	15.3	15.3	0.02	16.5	16.9	-0.37
Rafer Alston	26	27	0.25	0.25	0.01	-0.01	9	-2	11	15.3	15.4	-0.11	18.8	15.7	3.08
Eddie Jones	75	74	0.24	0.26	-0.01	0.36	-4	11	-15	15.4	14.9	0.57	16.2	18.9	-2.70
Rasual Butler	5	5	0.07	0.43	-0.36	0.04	1	6	-5	13.4	15.5	-2.06	18.6	16.5	2.06
Malik Allen	54	53	-0.06	0.56	-0.62	-0.09	1	6	-5	16.0	14.4	1.55	16.8	16.4	0.42
Udonis Haslem	8	8	-0.11	0.61	-0.72	-0.02	-3	10	-13	20.2	14.9	5.38	11.7	17.1	-5.38

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.5,0.46,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.41,0.4,0.4,0.36,0.35,0.42,0.51,0.58,0.53,0.56,0.59,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.58,0.54,0.69,0.67,0.61,0.67,0.71,0.75,0.66,0.63,0.6,0.68,0.66,0.66,0.66,0.67,0.73,0.59,0.53,0.67,0.86,0.93,0.96,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
NYK 96, NOH 101	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.47,0.47,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.5,0.56,0.62,0.62,0.6,0.58,0.58,0.54,0.56,0.61,0.69,0.64,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.61,0.67,0.67,0.68,0.71,0.69,0.73,0.7,0.75,0.66,0.67,0.67,0.67,0.63,0.74,0.6,0.78,0.8,0.96,0.97,0.98,1	92.8%
NYK 81, MIA 87	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.48,0.44,0.37,0.37,0.36,0.33,0.37,0.32,0.38,0.43,0.4,0.45,0.42,0.47,0.46,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.56,0.67,0.58,0.6,0.52,0.55,0.58,0.68,0.74,0.72,0.73,0.78,0.75,0.66,0.7,0.59,0.58,0.72,0.6,0.54,0.77,0.86,0.9,0.9,0.96,1	92.8%
CHH 93, NJN 104	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.45,0.5,0.5,0.49,0.45,0.41,0.45,0.4,0.38,0.4,0.48,0.47,0.42,0.49,0.47,0.56,0.59,0.64,0.66,0.58,0.64,0.59,0.67,0.69,0.63,0.7,0.73,0.67,0.65,0.65,0.66,0.76,0.6,0.6,0.54,0.57,0.57,0.52,0.68,0.59,0.71,0.77,0.83,0.93,0.99,1,1	92.8%