NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	85		Excitement	6.5 [506]		MVP	Baron Davis (NOH): +12.2%
New Orleans Hornets	96		Comeback	2.2 [703]		LVP	Caron Butler (MIA): -22.4%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rasual Butler	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.02	0.01	-0.02	2	75%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eddie Jones	0.04	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.03	0.01	-0.01	14	53%	0.08	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Rafer Alston	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03	-0.03	0.05	-0.01	8	50%	0.09	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.02
Udonis Haslem	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.00	-0.00	-0.02	6	57%	0.02	1	-0.00	2	100%	0.01
Lamar Odom	0.02	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.17,0.12,0.12,0.05,0.02,0.02	0.04	-0.03	0.00	17	61%	0.11	2	-0.10	7	100%	0.05
Samaki Walker	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Wang Zhi-zhi	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brian Grant	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.01	-0.01	9	33%	-0.05	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Dwyane Wade	-0.15	0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.07	-0.08	-0.01	12	41%	-0.10	2	-0.04	3	100%	0.01
Caron Butler	-0.22	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.22,-0.22	-0.12	-0.10	0.00	11	29%	-0.15	2	-0.08	2	50%	-0.01

New Orleans Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Baron Davis	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.19,0.17,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.25,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.19,0.17,0.11,0.16,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.06	0.07	0.01	21	52%	0.12	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Darrell Armstrong	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.03	0.07	-0.01	3	87%	0.13	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.02
George Lynch	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.08	0.02	0.01	6	92%	0.11	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
David West	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09	0.09	0.04	0.05	0.00	6	71%	0.14	1	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Jamaal Magloire	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	8	60%	0.06	2	-0.04	4	100%	0.02
Stacey Augmon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.01	0.02	10	65%	0.06	3	-0.09	6	83%	-0.01
David Wesley	0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.02	-0.03	0.02	7	60%	-0.01	2	-0.06	6	100%	0.02
P.J. Brown	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.11	-0.02	-0.01	9	22%	-0.08	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.2	3.6	33.2	19.7	28.2	3.7	39.0	154.6
league avg	47.8	2.4	27.9	14.3	24.8	2.1	29.8	150.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

NOH +54.6%

MIA -9.8%

NOH +6.8%

MIA -4.3%

NOH +2.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	NOH	NBA	MIA	NOH	NBA
this game	16.0	17.3	15.7	98.8	110.3	100.5
season	16.2	16.0		99.3	99.3
opponent	15.7	15.9		99.4	98.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	17.8	16.6	13.9	15.9	16.0
NOH	15.8	16.1	18.0	19.1	17.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Brian Grant	60	60	0.14	-0.64	0.78	0.14	0	-11	11	15.1	18.2	-3.04	16.5	18.9	-2.32
Wang Zhi-zhi	0	2	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.03	1	-12	13	0.0	16.0	-16.03	9.5	17.4	-7.94
Eddie Jones	66	68	-0.10	-0.40	0.29	-0.08	-1	-10	9	14.8	19.9	-5.10	17.2	17.5	-0.28
Rasual Butler	19	19	-0.11	-0.39	0.29	0.13	-8	-3	-5	17.1	15.7	1.37	11.4	18.9	-7.46
Samaki Walker	3	2	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.01	-5	-6	1	7.0	16.4	-9.36	8.0	17.5	-9.47
Caron Butler	62	63	-0.25	-0.25	0.00	-0.19	-2	-9	7	15.5	17.3	-1.80	18.2	14.7	3.51
Dwyane Wade	69	70	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.31	-4	-7	3	16.9	12.4	4.52	19.0	10.0	9.01
Lamar Odom	74	77	-0.44	-0.06	-0.39	-0.21	-8	-3	-5	16.3	14.2	2.17	17.5	15.4	2.09
Udonis Haslem	35	33	-0.55	0.05	-0.59	-0.25	-10	-1	-9	17.7	14.9	2.88	19.0	16.2	2.86
Rafer Alston	42	41	-0.61	0.11	-0.72	-0.08	-18	7	-25	16.7	15.4	1.28	15.6	18.8	-3.20

New Orleans Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
David West	50	48	0.78	-0.28	1.07	0.17	21	-10	31	16.1	18.8	-2.62	16.7	15.2	1.52
Baron Davis	76	75	0.59	-0.09	0.67	0.23	12	-1	13	18.0	12.0	6.01	16.2	15.0	1.19
Darrell Armstrong	40	40	0.47	0.04	0.43	0.23	8	3	5	17.4	17.1	0.27	18.1	14.2	3.95
Stacey Augmon	59	58	0.35	0.15	0.19	0.14	7	4	3	17.0	17.7	-0.73	15.7	16.7	-1.06
P.J. Brown	58	58	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.22	4	7	-3	18.9	14.0	4.93	15.4	17.3	-1.85
George Lynch	33	33	0.24	0.26	-0.02	0.00	8	3	5	16.9	17.5	-0.60	17.1	15.4	1.71
David Wesley	58	57	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	-0.11	2	9	-7	16.2	19.4	-3.29	14.4	19.3	-4.99
Jamaal Magloire	61	61	-0.21	0.71	-0.91	-0.00	-7	18	-25	17.0	17.8	-0.74	15.8	16.5	-0.68

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.54,0.46,0.47,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.6,0.56,0.63,0.62,0.64,0.64,0.66,0.58,0.56,0.66,0.66,0.69,0.58,0.54,0.67,0.65,0.69,0.8,0.76,0.83,0.71,0.75,0.69,0.7,0.56,0.4,0.38,0.52,0.47,0.47,0.58,0.78,0.85,0.78,0.81,0.84,0.94,0.95,1
Game		Similarity Score
NYK 80, NJN 85	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.47,0.46,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.51,0.58,0.6,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.58,0.6,0.63,0.61,0.59,0.58,0.61,0.64,0.67,0.74,0.71,0.72,0.67,0.73,0.82,0.74,0.69,0.63,0.6,0.56,0.5,0.57,0.38,0.58,0.63,0.74,0.81,0.73,0.62,0.77,0.96,1,1	93.1%
OKC 90, ATL 97	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.57,0.58,0.55,0.58,0.53,0.53,0.57,0.53,0.53,0.57,0.56,0.6,0.6,0.65,0.65,0.65,0.7,0.66,0.67,0.77,0.7,0.67,0.71,0.77,0.72,0.67,0.71,0.71,0.68,0.59,0.59,0.56,0.56,0.54,0.54,0.57,0.57,0.63,0.64,0.71,0.87,0.86,0.93,0.86,0.96,1	91.9%
CHI 91, LAL 98	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.53,0.5,0.46,0.45,0.45,0.47,0.42,0.47,0.46,0.5,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.62,0.63,0.61,0.61,0.59,0.6,0.56,0.54,0.51,0.63,0.74,0.78,0.76,0.71,0.68,0.68,0.66,0.69,0.6,0.52,0.54,0.57,0.47,0.58,0.42,0.69,0.81,0.96,1,0.99,0.98,1,1	91.9%