NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Portland Trail Blazers	103		Excitement	8.0 [251]		MVP	Zach Randolph (POR): +18.8%
Dallas Mavericks	99		Comeback	14.7 [34]		LVP	Bonzi Wells (POR): -27.5%

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Zach Randolph	0.19	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.19	0.10	0.09	0.00	12	69%	0.19	0	0.00	8	100%	0.09
Rasheed Wallace	0.17	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.06,0.02,-0.05,0.17,0.17	-0.03	0.18	-0.01	14	45%	0.19	1	-0.02	3	67%	-0.01
Damon Stoudamire	0.07	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.03	0.03	-0.01	15	61%	0.14	3	-0.07	1	100%	0.01
Scottie Pippen	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.03	0.01	0.00	6	75%	0.11	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Antonio Daniels	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ruben Patterson	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	8	50%	0.02	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Dale Davis	-0.00	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	-0.02	0.00	6	71%	0.05	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Arvydas Sabonis	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	0.00	1	75%	0.02	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Jeff McInnis	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.01	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Bonzi Wells	-0.27	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.19,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.18,-0.22,-0.18,-0.21,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.2,-0.24,-0.24,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27,-0.15,-0.15,-0.25,-0.27	-0.22	-0.07	-0.01	22	31%	-0.16	4	-0.11	5	60%	-0.01

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dirk Nowitzki	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,-0.03,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.18,0.18,0.21,0.29,0.24,0.17	0.17	0.06	0.10	-0.01	20	67%	0.26	4	-0.09	12	92%	0.01
Nick Van Exel	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.22,0.22,0.2,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.05	0.04	-0.02	18	60%	0.14	2	-0.03	6	83%	0.01
Michael Finley	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.07,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.07	0.01	-0.00	11	62%	0.08	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Shawn Bradley	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.01	-0.01	5	60%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Eduardo Najera	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	0.02	-0.08	-0.00	5	62%	-0.05	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.01
Raef LaFrentz	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	-0.00	3	37%	-0.03	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.02
Steve Nash	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.09,-0.11,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.2,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.18	-0.18	-0.16	-0.04	-0.02	11	27%	-0.07	3	-0.11	4	75%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.8	2.8	36.2	19.6	31.0	3.5	36.5	157.5
league avg	46.1	2.3	28.0	14.7	24.5	2.3	29.9	149.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

POR +12.7%

POR +6.7%

POR +49.1%

DAL -14.7%

DAL -3.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	POR	DAL	NBA	POR	DAL	NBA
this game	17.2	15.9	15.5	117.0	115.1	101.6
season	16.0	15.1		104.3	108.6
opponent	15.3	15.7		102.0	101.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
POR	17.4	16.9	16.7	17.9	17.2
DAL	13.9	15.1	15.3	19.9	15.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Scottie Pippen	27	25	0.70	-0.20	0.90	0.46	8	-4	12	16.8	17.4	-0.60	19.0	14.6	4.38
Zach Randolph	75	73	0.57	-0.07	0.65	0.31	9	-5	14	16.5	21.0	-4.47	15.4	18.6	-3.20
Dale Davis	67	66	0.55	-0.05	0.60	0.37	6	-2	8	17.1	17.6	-0.56	15.7	16.7	-1.05
Rasheed Wallace	56	57	0.51	-0.01	0.52	0.48	1	3	-2	19.0	14.0	4.97	16.8	14.2	2.60
Bonzi Wells	80	79	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.44	0	4	-4	17.8	11.1	6.68	15.6	18.9	-3.22
Arvydas Sabonis	18	16	0.02	0.48	-0.47	-0.01	1	3	-2	17.2	17.2	0.04	17.1	15.6	1.43
Antonio Daniels	12	10	0.01	0.49	-0.47	-0.02	1	3	-2	15.8	17.4	-1.57	17.5	15.7	1.82
Jeff McInnis	18	17	-0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.03	1	3	-2	13.1	18.3	-5.20	14.2	16.3	-2.14
Ruben Patterson	35	35	-0.09	0.59	-0.68	-0.09	0	4	-4	15.6	18.2	-2.60	16.0	15.8	0.22
Damon Stoudamire	52	52	-0.21	0.71	-0.91	-0.00	-7	11	-18	18.4	15.4	3.05	14.6	17.8	-3.19

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Raef LaFrentz	59	61	0.09	-0.59	0.67	-0.00	3	-7	10	15.5	16.7	-1.23	18.2	14.9	3.32
Shawn Bradley	58	56	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.07	-3	-1	-2	16.4	14.7	1.70	17.1	17.3	-0.19
Michael Finley	62	64	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.28	0	-4	4	14.8	18.7	-3.90	16.4	19.4	-3.06
Nick Van Exel	58	61	-0.48	-0.02	-0.47	-0.34	-5	1	-6	16.3	15.1	1.17	16.6	18.6	-2.07
Dirk Nowitzki	86	88	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.38	-4	0	-4	15.9	0.0	15.90	17.2	0.0	17.19
Steve Nash	55	55	-0.58	0.08	-0.66	-0.46	-4	0	-4	16.2	15.3	0.95	18.4	15.2	3.17
Eduardo Najera	52	55	-0.59	0.09	-0.67	-0.38	-7	3	-10	16.2	15.4	0.85	16.6	18.2	-1.53

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.57,0.57,0.58,0.59,0.61,0.66,0.65,0.63,0.64,0.65,0.6,0.55,0.62,0.66,0.67,0.68,0.66,0.71,0.69,0.69,0.67,0.7,0.63,0.69,0.69,0.64,0.55,0.58,0.59,0.52,0.56,0.6,0.72,0.74,0.7,0.79,0.71,0.81,0.89,0.91,0.94,0.76,0.71,0.76,0.31,0
Game		Similarity Score
ORL 104, LAC 101	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.56,0.62,0.64,0.68,0.71,0.67,0.63,0.65,0.71,0.64,0.63,0.56,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.54,0.56,0.56,0.69,0.74,0.79,0.79,0.73,0.66,0.77,0.72,0.67,0.58,0.55,0.62,0.62,0.59,0.71,0.82,0.81,0.84,0.79,0.86,0.81,0.83,0.81,0.9,0.69,0.55,0.67,0.41,0	92.2%
ATL 119, CHI 114	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.57,0.59,0.6,0.65,0.66,0.65,0.57,0.58,0.54,0.65,0.68,0.6,0.64,0.62,0.61,0.56,0.59,0.66,0.72,0.7,0.73,0.73,0.69,0.66,0.73,0.64,0.76,0.79,0.65,0.59,0.56,0.56,0.75,0.7,0.85,0.85,0.76,0.8,0.86,0.81,0.94,0.95,0.99,0.9,0.42,0	91.5%
UTA 92, NYK 89	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.53,0.53,0.58,0.63,0.67,0.66,0.63,0.6,0.56,0.5,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.62,0.67,0.68,0.68,0.61,0.64,0.75,0.67,0.67,0.61,0.58,0.55,0.67,0.73,0.74,0.74,0.66,0.69,0.8,0.72,0.78,0.85,0.79,0.76,0.85,0.86,0.81,0.87,0.75,0.74,0.65,0.16,0	91.4%