NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	99		Excitement	3.8 [1038]		MVP	Stephen Jackson (SAS): +6.0%
Phoenix Suns	86		Comeback	1.1 [799]		LVP	Malik Rose (SAS): -10.8%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Stephen Jackson	0.06	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.10	-0.00	0.04	13	74%	0.10	2	-0.04	1	100%	0.00
Tony Parker	0.05	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.08,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	-0.01	0.01	-0.05	21	62%	0.13	6	-0.08	5	60%	-0.01
David Robinson	0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.00	0.01	-0.02	5	67%	0.05	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Kevin Willis	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Danny Ferry	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Speedy Claxton	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	3	33%	0.01	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Manu Ginobili	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	12	43%	-0.00	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.02
Steven Smith	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.05	-0.00	-0.02	3	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tim Duncan	-0.03	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.06	-0.00	-0.03	6	61%	0.03	4	-0.06	6	83%	0.01
Bruce Bowen	-0.06	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.07	0.00	-0.02	7	14%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Malik Rose	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.09	0.00	0.02	9	52%	-0.06	3	-0.05	11	64%	-0.02

Phoenix Suns
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jake Voskuhl	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.05	0.01	0.04	5	71%	0.02	0	0.00	4	100%	0.00
Scott Williams	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.01	3	67%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shawn Marion	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.02	15	50%	0.03	2	-0.04	6	67%	0.00
Bo Outlaw	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Casey Jacobsen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	0.00	-0.01	3	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Amar'e Stoudemire	0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	13	50%	-0.01	2	-0.04	8	62%	-0.02
Stephon Marbury	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.07	-0.01	0.02	26	45%	-0.05	3	-0.06	3	33%	-0.01
Joe Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.14	-0.00	-0.04	11	14%	-0.09	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Anfernee Hardaway	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.12	0.00	-0.01	10	37%	-0.05	3	-0.05	4	50%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.5	1.8	33.1	16.7	26.2	2.6	33.3	139.2
league avg	46.1	2.3	28.0	14.7	24.5	2.3	29.9	149.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +32.2%

SAS +4.9%

SAS +16.6%

PHX -5.2%

SAS +1.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	PHX	NBA	SAS	PHX	NBA
this game	16.4	14.5	15.5	106.5	92.5	101.6
season	15.7	15.0		102.5	101.1
opponent	15.9	15.4		100.1	96.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	15.3	17.0	16.6	16.9	16.4
PHX	16.7	15.1	14.1	12.4	14.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Manu Ginobili	63	64	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.18	12	1	11	16.5	16.2	0.31	14.1	15.5	-1.44
Tim Duncan	80	77	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.02	15	-2	17	16.5	16.3	0.15	15.1	11.6	3.50
Tony Parker	71	72	0.44	0.06	0.37	0.14	10	3	7	16.1	17.6	-1.51	14.3	15.2	-0.86
Malik Rose	49	51	0.41	0.09	0.32	-0.06	16	-3	19	15.7	17.3	-1.67	14.7	14.3	0.35
Stephen Jackson	52	53	0.25	0.25	0.01	-0.16	14	-1	15	16.6	16.3	0.27	15.1	13.8	1.28
Steven Smith	23	23	0.19	0.31	-0.12	-0.02	7	6	1	16.6	16.4	0.17	15.9	14.1	1.78
David Robinson	53	54	0.13	0.37	-0.25	0.21	-3	16	-19	17.4	15.1	2.31	14.1	15.1	-0.99
Speedy Claxton	22	21	0.06	0.44	-0.37	-0.02	3	10	-7	17.6	16.1	1.51	15.2	14.3	0.86
Bruce Bowen	48	46	0.03	0.47	-0.45	0.23	-7	20	-27	16.1	16.8	-0.65	13.8	15.2	-1.34
Kevin Willis	2	2	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.06	-2	15	-17	12.5	16.5	-4.03	6.5	14.7	-8.20
Danny Ferry	2	2	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.00	0	13	-13	12.5	16.5	-4.03	6.5	14.7	-8.20

Phoenix Suns
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Bo Outlaw	5	6	-0.01	-0.49	0.49	-0.04	1	-14	15	15.8	14.5	1.35	14.5	16.6	-2.07
Scott Williams	29	30	-0.02	-0.48	0.47	-0.13	4	-17	21	14.7	14.5	0.19	17.1	16.1	0.97
Casey Jacobsen	14	14	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	-0.02	-2	-11	9	14.4	14.6	-0.20	15.8	16.6	-0.77
Jake Voskuhl	43	41	-0.24	-0.26	0.01	-0.01	-8	-5	-3	14.7	14.3	0.40	16.0	16.8	-0.79
Anfernee Hardaway	70	72	-0.25	-0.25	-0.00	-0.19	-2	-11	9	13.7	17.0	-3.23	16.7	15.7	1.00
Shawn Marion	85	84	-0.45	-0.05	-0.41	-0.22	-8	-5	-3	14.2	18.0	-3.80	16.8	12.9	3.93
Joe Johnson	63	64	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.02	-15	2	-17	14.4	14.7	-0.30	16.0	17.4	-1.36
Stephon Marbury	85	83	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.06	-14	1	-15	14.8	11.7	3.04	16.3	17.8	-1.52
Amar'e Stoudemire	71	71	-0.52	0.02	-0.53	0.10	-21	8	-29	15.2	12.2	3.01	16.6	15.9	0.70

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.41,0.38,0.33,0.32,0.35,0.36,0.29,0.23,0.25,0.29,0.34,0.25,0.2,0.14,0.17,0.14,0.09,0.11,0.12,0.15,0.24,0.14,0.13,0.1,0.09,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.07,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
TOR 106, WAS 99	0.5,0.49,0.5,0.51,0.5,0.5,0.48,0.45,0.43,0.41,0.38,0.36,0.4,0.35,0.36,0.3,0.31,0.27,0.2,0.22,0.16,0.17,0.16,0.13,0.14,0.12,0.19,0.14,0.13,0.15,0.16,0.09,0.1,0.09,0.1,0.07,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0	95.9%
MEM 119, DEN 99	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.5,0.47,0.43,0.41,0.43,0.43,0.4,0.34,0.32,0.32,0.34,0.29,0.33,0.28,0.3,0.25,0.29,0.2,0.2,0.12,0.16,0.13,0.18,0.16,0.17,0.1,0.18,0.15,0.08,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.9%
NYK 95, MIA 75	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.41,0.4,0.41,0.39,0.37,0.37,0.34,0.3,0.3,0.32,0.32,0.33,0.31,0.31,0.28,0.25,0.24,0.19,0.2,0.11,0.09,0.14,0.12,0.13,0.11,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.07,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.8%