NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

New Jersey Nets	103		Excitement	7.3 [335]		MVP	Kerry Kittles (NJN): +9.8%
Milwaukee Bucks	101		Comeback	1.3 [579]		LVP	Gary Payton (MIL): -17.0%

New Jersey Nets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kerry Kittles	0.10	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1	0.07	0.02	-0.01	11	67%	0.12	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Jason Kidd	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.14,0.14,0.05	0.08	-0.04	-0.00	13	70%	0.16	2	-0.12	11	73%	-0.01
Aaron Williams	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.03	0.01	0.00	4	80%	0.08	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Anthony Johnson	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Lucious Harris	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	0.02	-0.00	4	50%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Kenyon Martin	0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.04	0.03	-0.02	17	53%	0.06	3	-0.06	9	100%	0.04
Dikembe Mutombo	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Rodney Rogers	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,-0.05,-0.04	-0.02	-0.03	-0.02	16	50%	0.08	2	-0.12	4	50%	-0.35
Jason Collins	-0.08	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.11	0.00	-0.02	5	20%	-0.03	3	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Richard Jefferson	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.08	-0.02	-0.01	7	29%	-0.03	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Toni Kukoc	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,0.09	0.09	-0.05	0.14	-0.00	8	35%	0.09	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.03
Tim Thomas	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	17	54%	0.03	1	-0.02	7	100%	0.04
Joel Przybilla	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ervin Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	1	100%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Michael Redd	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	6	42%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Desmond Mason	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.01	-0.04	0.02	10	59%	-0.00	1	-0.04	7	86%	0.03
Anthony Mason	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	0.00	0.00	3	50%	0.00	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.02
Sam Cassell	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,0,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.07	-0.07	0.04	-0.10	0.02	18	59%	-0.01	2	-0.06	5	100%	0.02
Gary Payton	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.05,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.11,-0.17	-0.17	-0.04	-0.12	0.01	20	48%	-0.12	2	-0.05	4	75%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.1	0.2	28.6	18.3	30.3	3.5	38.4	143.6
league avg	46.1	2.3	28.0	14.7	24.5	2.3	29.9	149.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

NJN +84.8%

MIL -21.2%

NJN +2.8%

MIL -21.4%

NJN +5.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	NJN	MIL	NBA	NJN	MIL	NBA
this game	15.5	15.0	15.5	109.6	106.3	101.6
season	15.0	15.4		101.1	106.3
opponent	15.8	15.9		106.5	96.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
NJN	14.5	15.8	14.4	17.4	15.5
MIL	16.1	17.7	13.3	13.3	15.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

New Jersey Nets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Lucious Harris	37	40	0.73	-0.23	0.96	0.41	11	-9	20	16.0	15.2	0.80	15.6	14.5	1.05
Kenyon Martin	79	80	0.53	-0.03	0.57	0.33	7	-5	12	15.3	16.5	-1.24	15.1	14.5	0.62
Jason Kidd	82	82	0.38	0.12	0.25	0.35	1	1	0	15.1	18.1	-2.97	14.5	17.8	-3.31
Rodney Rogers	46	47	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.42	-3	5	-8	16.7	14.3	2.45	14.5	15.5	-0.99
Kerry Kittles	59	58	0.19	0.31	-0.13	0.30	-4	6	-10	15.1	16.1	-0.95	14.8	15.2	-0.37
Richard Jefferson	63	63	0.14	0.36	-0.23	0.14	0	2	-2	14.8	16.8	-2.01	15.2	14.5	0.74
Dikembe Mutombo	9	9	0.12	0.38	-0.27	-0.03	5	-3	8	17.0	15.3	1.67	19.3	14.5	4.80
Anthony Johnson	10	11	0.10	0.40	-0.30	0.16	-2	4	-6	18.9	15.1	3.82	15.7	14.9	0.83
Jason Collins	45	46	0.03	0.47	-0.45	-0.00	1	1	0	14.5	16.4	-1.88	15.3	14.7	0.57
Aaron Williams	40	39	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	0.14	-6	8	-14	16.2	14.9	1.32	14.0	15.7	-1.72

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Joel Przybilla	25	25	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	0.07	-6	4	-10	15.4	14.8	0.61	14.1	16.0	-1.92
Desmond Mason	74	72	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.48	11	-13	24	14.2	17.9	-3.68	15.2	16.4	-1.20
Ervin Johnson	7	8	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	0.04	-7	5	-12	19.4	14.6	4.79	16.1	15.4	0.69
Tim Thomas	74	73	-0.21	-0.29	0.07	-0.30	3	-5	8	14.9	15.4	-0.56	15.3	16.1	-0.84
Sam Cassell	77	77	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.47	8	-10	18	14.4	17.6	-3.17	15.5	15.4	0.09
Toni Kukoc	55	54	-0.26	-0.24	-0.01	-0.29	1	-3	4	14.9	15.1	-0.23	17.0	13.5	3.51
Gary Payton	79	78	-0.27	-0.23	-0.03	-0.41	5	-7	12	14.8	15.9	-1.06	15.2	16.8	-1.59
Michael Redd	34	33	-0.50	-0.00	-0.49	0.00	-17	15	-32	16.8	14.0	2.76	16.1	15.2	0.93
Anthony Mason	50	50	-0.60	0.10	-0.70	-0.37	-8	6	-14	15.6	14.3	1.37	15.2	15.9	-0.70

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.47,0.44,0.48,0.45,0.39,0.37,0.33,0.36,0.29,0.3,0.28,0.24,0.23,0.16,0.18,0.24,0.17,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.14,0.12,0.11,0.18,0.2,0.24,0.27,0.23,0.35,0.31,0.34,0.17,0.25,0.19,0.16,0.09,0.08,0.05,0.03,0.06,0.13,0.05,0.11,0.1,0.15,0
Game		Similarity Score
LAC 90, MEM 77	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.5,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.43,0.35,0.35,0.29,0.23,0.22,0.24,0.21,0.17,0.24,0.24,0.23,0.19,0.14,0.1,0.08,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.15,0.22,0.24,0.26,0.38,0.25,0.31,0.19,0.32,0.26,0.16,0.15,0.09,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.05,0.01,0,0,0	95.4%
PHI 94, TOR 89	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.54,0.5,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.4,0.39,0.38,0.36,0.32,0.28,0.22,0.25,0.21,0.22,0.18,0.16,0.1,0.12,0.17,0.1,0.16,0.16,0.2,0.25,0.27,0.3,0.32,0.35,0.31,0.37,0.37,0.36,0.26,0.13,0.15,0.11,0.07,0.06,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.1,0.09,0.1,0	94.9%
ATL 95, MIL 80	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.52,0.5,0.5,0.46,0.39,0.37,0.34,0.35,0.35,0.32,0.28,0.28,0.26,0.21,0.19,0.22,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.18,0.16,0.22,0.24,0.21,0.18,0.22,0.25,0.23,0.14,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.11,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.03,0,0.01,0,0,0	94.7%