NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

New Jersey Nets	96		Excitement	7.3 [351]		MVP	Lucious Harris (NJN): +18.9%
Boston Celtics	88		Comeback	4.0 [215]		LVP	Antoine Walker (BOS): -35.5%

New Jersey Nets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Lucious Harris	0.19	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.12	0.07	0.00	5	120%	0.22	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Aaron Williams	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.01	0.00	2	100%	0.07	1	-0.04	1	100%	0.01
Anthony Johnson	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kerry Kittles	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0,0	-0.00	-0.00	-0.00	7	56%	0.07	1	-0.07	2	50%	-0.01
Keith Van Horn	-0.00	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0	-0.03	-0.00	-0.03	8	50%	0.03	1	-0.03	6	67%	0.01
Richard Jefferson	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	-0.00	-0.01	12	54%	0.04	2	-0.05	4	75%	0.01
Todd MacCulloch	-0.03	0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	6	69%	0.03	3	-0.06	4	75%	-0.01
Kenyon Martin	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.14,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05	-0.09	0.03	-0.01	17	38%	-0.05	0	0.00	8	75%	0.01
Jason Kidd	-0.14	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.13,-0.13,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.21,-0.21,-0.25,-0.15,-0.15,-0.14	-0.12	-0.04	-0.02	18	37%	-0.08	2	-0.07	5	60%	-0.04

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rodney Rogers	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.09,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.06	0.09	-0.00	8	72%	0.17	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.02
Eric Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.07	-0.00	0.01	4	100%	0.09	1	-0.03	3	67%	-0.00
Kenny Anderson	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	0.00	0.00	14	58%	0.07	2	-0.06	3	67%	-0.02
Tony Delk	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Walter McCarty	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Paul Pierce	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07	-0.07	-0.13	0.01	-0.06	16	39%	0.04	4	-0.11	4	50%	-0.01
Tony Battie	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.09	-0.02	-0.01	1	0%	-0.05	2	-0.05	2	0%	-0.04
Erick Strickland	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.07,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.00	-0.13	0.00	13	47%	-0.14	0	0.00	4	100%	0.04
Antoine Walker	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.14,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.35,-0.36	-0.35	-0.15	-0.21	-0.00	20	36%	-0.23	3	-0.13	4	25%	-0.14

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	484.1	3.5	28.6	19.5	27.4	3.6	45.4	612.1
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

NJN +28.2%

NJN +12.1%

NJN +1.8%

NJN +4.2%

NJN +3.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	NJN	BOS	NBA	NJN	BOS	NBA
this game	16.4	15.8	15.6	107.9	97.8	102.3
season	14.7	15.0		101.4	100.9
opponent	15.7	16.0		98.8	98.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
NJN	16.7	17.9	15.3	15.7	16.4
BOS	13.9	15.6	19.7	14.3	15.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

New Jersey Nets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Aaron Williams	56	56	0.60	-0.10	0.71	0.34	9	-1	10	16.2	16.7	-0.55	16.4	14.9	1.52
Kenyon Martin	76	78	0.57	-0.07	0.64	0.22	12	-4	16	16.2	17.2	-0.90	15.6	17.2	-1.58
Lucious Harris	31	33	0.54	-0.04	0.59	0.13	14	-6	20	17.0	16.1	0.90	17.7	14.7	3.04
Jason Kidd	77	79	0.48	0.02	0.47	0.28	7	1	6	16.3	16.7	-0.43	15.7	16.7	-1.06
Keith Van Horn	65	64	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.21	2	6	-4	16.1	17.0	-0.90	15.5	16.7	-1.20
Richard Jefferson	36	36	0.16	0.34	-0.18	0.10	2	6	-4	16.8	16.1	0.76	17.6	14.6	2.93
Anthony Johnson	12	11	0.02	0.48	-0.47	-0.01	1	7	-6	16.7	16.3	0.43	16.7	15.7	1.06
Kerry Kittles	59	59	-0.04	0.54	-0.59	0.13	-6	14	-20	16.2	16.7	-0.43	14.3	18.6	-4.34
Todd MacCulloch	33	34	-0.10	0.60	-0.71	-0.07	-1	9	-10	16.7	16.2	0.55	14.9	16.4	-1.52

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tony Delk	2	1	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.00	0	-8	8	3.5	16.1	-12.58	26.0	16.3	9.73
Eric Williams	55	59	-0.03	-0.47	0.45	0.00	-1	-7	6	14.6	17.6	-2.99	16.7	15.8	0.93
Walter McCarty	10	8	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	0.01	-2	-6	4	18.0	15.5	2.47	14.0	16.6	-2.62
Rodney Rogers	50	49	-0.19	-0.31	0.11	-0.28	3	-11	14	15.0	16.8	-1.84	15.9	16.9	-1.03
Tony Battie	40	40	-0.31	-0.19	-0.11	0.02	-11	3	-14	16.8	15.0	1.84	16.9	15.9	1.03
Kenny Anderson	74	72	-0.36	-0.14	-0.21	-0.30	-2	-6	4	16.1	14.5	1.58	17.7	10.7	7.02
Erick Strickland	51	49	-0.37	-0.13	-0.23	-0.19	-6	-2	-4	15.4	16.4	-1.03	15.1	18.0	-2.89
Antoine Walker	88	88	-0.50	-0.00	-0.50	-0.26	-8	0	-8	16.1	3.5	12.58	16.3	26.0	-9.73
Paul Pierce	80	79	-0.70	0.20	-0.90	-0.32	-13	5	-18	16.3	11.4	4.95	16.0	19.6	-3.63

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.41,0.4,0.34,0.32,0.4,0.45,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.65,0.56,0.51,0.55,0.53,0.54,0.51,0.54,0.56,0.54,0.64,0.66,0.78,0.74,0.77,0.75,0.76,0.7,0.68,0.71,0.75,0.66,0.6,0.62,0.46,0.48,0.49,0.38,0.37,0.32,0.12,0.13,0.25,0.26,0.09,0.09,0
Game		Similarity Score
IND 95, CHI 90	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.47,0.42,0.4,0.45,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.38,0.48,0.47,0.42,0.47,0.51,0.56,0.52,0.56,0.54,0.64,0.59,0.64,0.78,0.76,0.66,0.7,0.55,0.67,0.65,0.59,0.62,0.59,0.48,0.56,0.46,0.34,0.29,0.38,0.37,0.32,0.24,0.23,0.11,0.22,0.09,0.08,0	91.9%
CHI 121, NOP 116	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.43,0.45,0.41,0.42,0.43,0.43,0.45,0.49,0.58,0.54,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.58,0.67,0.69,0.59,0.58,0.61,0.61,0.69,0.78,0.75,0.81,0.79,0.72,0.67,0.58,0.62,0.65,0.59,0.56,0.52,0.44,0.46,0.52,0.53,0.43,0.27,0.21,0.24,0.17,0.32,0.45,0.16,0.01,0	91.9%
MIL 98, HOU 93	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.45,0.44,0.39,0.39,0.37,0.39,0.4,0.42,0.46,0.57,0.58,0.64,0.62,0.62,0.67,0.63,0.59,0.64,0.58,0.61,0.7,0.73,0.71,0.74,0.72,0.67,0.64,0.55,0.48,0.59,0.73,0.56,0.52,0.46,0.52,0.46,0.42,0.23,0.26,0.24,0.22,0.11,0.21,0.16,0.16,0	91.7%