NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	101		Excitement	4.9 [834]		MVP	Dirk Nowitzki (DAL): +15.0%
Sacramento Kings	114		Comeback	1.2 [853]		LVP	Nick Van Exel (DAL): -10.1%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dirk Nowitzki	0.15	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.09,0.15,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.16,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.11	0.05	0.01	25	59%	0.18	1	-0.03	4	75%	0.00
Greg Buckner	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shawn Bradley	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eduardo Najera	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Wang Zhi-zhi	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	1	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Michael Finley	-0.03	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.03	-0.02	0.04	18	60%	0.03	3	-0.06	7	86%	0.00
Adrian Griffin	-0.04	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	0.02	-0.03	0.03	11	58%	-0.00	1	-0.03	2	0%	-0.04
Raef LaFrentz	-0.07	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.08	-0.01	-0.02	10	32%	-0.05	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.00
Steve Nash	-0.09	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.03	-0.04	0.02	9	57%	-0.04	3	-0.05	3	100%	0.02
Nick Van Exel	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.06	-0.03	0.02	9	33%	-0.08	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Hedo Turkoglu	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.06	0.02	-0.00	19	53%	0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mike Bibby	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.04	0.01	-0.01	17	57%	0.09	1	-0.03	6	100%	0.02
Chris Webber	0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	0.01	0.01	14	61%	0.06	1	-0.03	10	70%	0.01
Doug Christie	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	10	58%	0.06	2	-0.05	6	67%	-0.00
Gerald Wallace	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bobby Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.01	-0.00	0.03	12	58%	0.03	2	-0.06	2	50%	0.00
Vlade Divac	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.01	0.01	10	64%	0.04	3	-0.07	8	100%	0.04
Scot Pollard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	543.4	2.6	35.2	19.5	26.4	2.7	27.3	657.2
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAC +20.0%

SAC +15.6%

SAC +14.9%

DAL -1.3%

SAC +0.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	SAC	NBA	DAL	SAC	NBA
this game	14.9	16.1	15.6	107.4	123.9	102.3
season	14.8	14.2		109.6	106.6
opponent	15.5	15.5		99.6	105.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DAL	14.0	17.1	15.2	13.3	14.9
SAC	14.2	13.6	16.8	20.3	16.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Shawn Bradley	2	1	-0.02	-0.48	0.45	0.03	-2	-11	9	8.0	15.1	-7.07	20.0	16.0	3.98
Greg Buckner	20	21	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.06	-2	-11	9	14.8	14.9	-0.08	18.0	15.5	2.51
Wang Zhi-zhi	11	11	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.01	-4	-9	5	14.4	15.0	-0.62	19.6	15.6	4.06
Steve Nash	74	71	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.09	-2	-11	9	13.7	19.3	-5.57	16.8	13.6	3.17
Adrian Griffin	61	59	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.05	-5	-8	3	15.7	13.5	2.20	14.6	18.6	-3.96
Eduardo Najera	16	16	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.07	-5	-8	3	16.6	14.6	1.99	14.4	16.4	-2.05
Raef LaFrentz	48	48	-0.23	-0.27	0.03	0.00	-8	-5	-3	15.5	14.3	1.11	15.7	16.5	-0.79
Nick Van Exel	54	53	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.10	-11	-2	-9	15.4	14.2	1.24	16.0	16.2	-0.24
Dirk Nowitzki	94	92	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.12	-13	0	-13	14.9	0.0	14.91	16.1	0.0	16.07
Michael Finley	90	88	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.12	-13	0	-13	14.7	19.7	-5.05	16.1	16.2	-0.19

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Doug Christie	88	90	0.57	-0.07	0.64	0.10	16	-3	19	15.7	24.7	-9.08	15.2	8.5	6.70
Chris Webber	64	66	0.53	-0.03	0.55	0.09	15	-2	17	16.5	15.1	1.43	15.3	13.9	1.40
Hedo Turkoglu	91	92	0.50	-0.00	0.50	0.15	12	1	11	16.1	14.0	2.09	14.8	19.0	-4.17
Mike Bibby	84	87	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.12	11	2	9	16.5	11.0	5.55	14.3	22.0	-7.66
Vlade Divac	57	56	0.37	0.13	0.24	-0.01	13	0	13	14.1	19.3	-5.29	16.0	13.3	2.73
Bobby Jackson	62	65	0.24	0.26	-0.01	0.13	4	9	-5	16.5	15.2	1.28	14.9	14.9	0.03
Scot Pollard	9	8	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	0.01	-2	15	-17	18.3	15.8	2.51	11.2	15.3	-4.01
Gerald Wallace	5	6	-0.10	0.60	-0.71	0.01	-4	17	-21	22.6	15.7	6.91	10.2	15.2	-5.07

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.45,0.48,0.51,0.57,0.58,0.58,0.63,0.55,0.6,0.62,0.58,0.65,0.53,0.58,0.55,0.62,0.67,0.63,0.61,0.71,0.64,0.64,0.73,0.67,0.74,0.75,0.69,0.73,0.73,0.62,0.55,0.69,0.79,0.81,0.85,0.94,0.95,0.94,0.96,0.94,0.98,0.99,1,1,0.99,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
LAL 98, POR 107	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.57,0.52,0.54,0.63,0.57,0.61,0.55,0.55,0.62,0.6,0.65,0.55,0.51,0.53,0.58,0.58,0.63,0.66,0.69,0.67,0.75,0.8,0.82,0.79,0.72,0.7,0.73,0.67,0.62,0.62,0.65,0.7,0.67,0.82,0.87,0.96,0.94,0.95,0.97,1,1,1,1,1,0.99,1,1	95.0%
PHI 92, MIA 113	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.59,0.6,0.62,0.64,0.65,0.65,0.63,0.56,0.52,0.58,0.62,0.6,0.65,0.67,0.65,0.66,0.66,0.58,0.61,0.67,0.7,0.62,0.65,0.64,0.73,0.73,0.74,0.71,0.66,0.72,0.8,0.87,0.92,0.92,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1	94.7%
WAS 82, NYK 102	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.49,0.58,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.62,0.58,0.56,0.54,0.53,0.49,0.62,0.6,0.65,0.68,0.68,0.61,0.61,0.64,0.61,0.7,0.71,0.69,0.64,0.7,0.64,0.68,0.63,0.75,0.76,0.78,0.82,0.81,0.87,0.9,0.95,0.93,0.96,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	94.7%