NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	82		Excitement	8.1 [228]		MVP	Dell Curry (TOR): +15.9%
Detroit Pistons	85		Comeback	3.3 [402]		LVP	Antonio Davis (TOR): -26.9%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dell Curry	0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.01,0.06,0.15,0.15,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.26,0.21,0.24,0.24,0.12,0.16	0.11	0.05	-0.00	10	77%	0.28	1	-0.12	2	100%	0.03
Keon Clark	0.05	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.03	0.02	0.00	7	79%	0.11	3	-0.06	5	100%	0.03
Hakeem Olajuwon	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.00	-0.02	0.00	5	67%	0.03	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Morris Peterson	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	-0.00	5	30%	-0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jerome Williams	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.01	-0.11	0.00	4	50%	-0.07	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Alvin Williams	-0.21	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.18,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21	-0.14	-0.07	0.00	16	31%	-0.10	3	-0.11	0	0%	0.00
Chris Childs	-0.23	0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0,0,-0.13,-0.03,-0.03,-0.23	-0.04	-0.19	0.00	15	52%	-0.08	4	-0.16	1	100%	0.01
Antonio Davis	-0.27	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.14,-0.21,-0.21,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27	-0.19	-0.09	-0.01	10	29%	-0.20	2	-0.07	11	45%	-0.07

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Michael Curry	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.06	0.00	0.01	3	100%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Zeljko Rebraca	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.04	0.07	-0.00	4	50%	0.06	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.02
Clifford Robinson	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.00	0.03	-0.01	8	54%	0.03	0	0.00	8	87%	0.08
Corliss Williamson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.08,0.15,0.11,0.06,0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.02	0.02	0.04	-0.02	0.00	15	66%	0.20	3	-0.17	5	60%	-0.02
Damon Jones	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jon Barry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.01	-0.05	-0.02	9	67%	0.06	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Jerry Stackhouse	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.03,-0.07	-0.07	-0.14	0.01	-0.06	10	20%	-0.07	0	0.00	5	60%	-0.02
Chucky Atkins	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.01	-0.10	-0.00	17	41%	-0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ben Wallace	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.17,-0.16,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23	-0.23	-0.20	-0.04	-0.01	4	33%	-0.08	5	-0.15	10	40%	-0.04

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	528.7	3.4	29.5	18.8	27.4	3.6	40.4	651.6
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DET +24.2%

DET +9.5%

TOR -5.7%

DET +26.3%

TOR -4.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	DET	NBA	TOR	DET	NBA
this game	17.0	16.3	15.6	94.3	98.8	102.3
season	16.2	15.7		100.3	101.9
opponent	15.8	15.6		99.8	100.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
TOR	14.2	19.5	18.4	16.5	17.0
DET	16.5	14.8	18.6	15.5	16.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Morris Peterson	49	51	-0.04	-0.46	0.43	-0.33	10	-13	23	17.3	16.7	0.60	16.7	15.6	1.17
Alvin Williams	65	64	-0.20	-0.30	0.09	-0.06	-5	2	-7	17.0	17.0	0.09	17.0	14.0	2.99
Antonio Davis	66	65	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.33	1	-4	5	16.6	18.2	-1.60	16.5	15.7	0.79
Chris Childs	65	65	-0.33	-0.17	-0.17	-0.42	3	-6	9	16.4	18.9	-2.52	16.3	16.1	0.16
Jerome Williams	46	44	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.03	-11	8	-19	17.6	16.4	1.15	15.8	16.7	-0.87
Keon Clark	76	74	-0.38	-0.12	-0.25	-0.44	2	-5	7	16.5	20.5	-4.03	16.9	12.3	4.57
Hakeem Olajuwon	27	27	-0.38	-0.12	-0.27	-0.09	-10	7	-17	18.9	16.2	2.76	14.5	17.1	-2.55
Dell Curry	41	40	-0.51	0.01	-0.53	-0.37	-5	2	-7	17.4	16.7	0.69	14.5	17.8	-3.26

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ben Wallace	79	80	0.64	-0.14	0.78	0.43	7	-4	11	15.7	22.1	-6.40	17.4	12.9	4.53
Corliss Williamson	48	49	0.54	-0.04	0.57	0.30	8	-5	13	16.3	16.3	0.01	17.8	16.0	1.86
Chucky Atkins	63	63	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.48	-2	5	-7	16.7	15.2	1.43	17.2	16.7	0.49
Jerry Stackhouse	54	56	0.34	0.16	0.17	0.48	-5	8	-13	16.6	15.7	0.97	17.2	16.6	0.64
Clifford Robinson	50	52	0.30	0.20	0.09	0.44	-5	8	-13	18.0	13.9	4.09	16.9	17.2	-0.34
Zeljko Rebraca	35	35	0.11	0.39	-0.27	-0.12	8	-5	13	15.0	17.2	-2.19	15.9	17.8	-1.95
Jon Barry	40	38	0.09	0.41	-0.31	-0.02	4	-1	5	15.8	16.7	-0.87	17.2	16.9	0.29
Damon Jones	23	24	0.08	0.42	-0.34	-0.07	5	-2	7	15.2	16.7	-1.43	16.7	17.2	-0.49
Michael Curry	38	38	-0.02	0.52	-0.53	0.13	-5	8	-13	16.3	16.3	-0.01	16.0	17.8	-1.86

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.45,0.46,0.44,0.45,0.43,0.39,0.38,0.34,0.32,0.37,0.42,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.58,0.54,0.56,0.59,0.46,0.42,0.47,0.49,0.37,0.4,0.36,0.42,0.52,0.58,0.6,0.62,0.63,0.61,0.56,0.66,0.62,0.62,0.58,0.63,0.7,0.54,0.4,0.31,0.45,0.53,0.72,1
Game		Similarity Score
WAS 92, CHA 94	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.54,0.49,0.55,0.49,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.42,0.4,0.43,0.42,0.47,0.45,0.42,0.42,0.46,0.44,0.48,0.56,0.49,0.44,0.5,0.48,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.61,0.58,0.65,0.62,0.56,0.67,0.69,0.62,0.7,0.66,0.79,0.77,0.69,0.54,0.4,0.45,0.54,0.57,0.74,1	91.6%
CHI 107, DEN 110	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.4,0.42,0.4,0.38,0.36,0.31,0.3,0.29,0.25,0.26,0.32,0.45,0.58,0.67,0.67,0.61,0.56,0.56,0.58,0.58,0.59,0.5,0.48,0.46,0.42,0.44,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.56,0.66,0.67,0.72,0.62,0.52,0.62,0.53,0.63,0.74,0.66,0.6,0.53,0.64,0.55,0.84,1	91.2%
POR 113, DEN 116	0.5,0.49,0.44,0.48,0.48,0.47,0.4,0.36,0.45,0.39,0.45,0.49,0.56,0.54,0.54,0.58,0.64,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.56,0.58,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.4,0.37,0.39,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.41,0.52,0.63,0.63,0.75,0.7,0.66,0.52,0.58,0.63,0.69,0.59,0.6,0.55,0.45,0.57,0.73,1	91.0%