NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	116		Excitement	10.1 [45]		MVP	Ray Allen (MIL): +26.3%
Orlando Magic	121		Comeback	2.2 [571]		LVP	Sam Cassell (MIL): -36.1%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ray Allen	0.26	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.08,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.3,0.3,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.26	0.09	0.19	0.02	20	63%	0.31	2	-0.04	3	100%	0.01
Glenn Robinson	0.16	0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.11,-0.11,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.16	-0.04	0.20	0.00	13	50%	0.24	3	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Darvin Ham	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.06	0.03	0.00	3	90%	0.09	0	0.00	4	75%	0.01
Scott Williams	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.02	0.01	6	62%	0.04	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.02
Mark Pope	0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Lindsey Hunter	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.05,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	6	42%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Caffey	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.00	-0.00	5	44%	-0.04	0	0.00	8	100%	0.05
Ervin Johnson	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	2	33%	-0.03	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Tim Thomas	-0.26	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.09,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.19,-0.26	-0.03	-0.21	0.02	13	50%	-0.12	1	-0.14	10	90%	0.06
Sam Cassell	-0.36	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.2,-0.2,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.22,-0.23,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.2,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.14,-0.32,-0.32,-0.36	-0.26	-0.16	-0.06	23	38%	-0.13	7	-0.24	9	78%	0.01

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dee Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.22	0.22	0.10	0.12	0.00	8	75%	0.22	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Pat Garrity	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0.12,0.12,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.20	0.08	0.10	-0.02	10	70%	0.22	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.02
Tracy McGrady	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.09,-0.09,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.04,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.32,0.26,0.14,0.06,0.23,0.17	0.17	-0.04	0.20	-0.00	32	51%	0.22	2	-0.05	18	78%	0.02
John Amaechi	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	3	67%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Monty Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	0	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.01
Andrew DeClercq	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.01	-0.01	0.01	5	60%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Michael Doleac	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	0.01	-0.00	4	50%	0.03	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Darrell Armstrong	0,0,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.02	-0.03	0.01	13	60%	0.05	4	-0.10	4	100%	0.02
Bo Outlaw	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.06	0.00	-0.00	8	44%	0.00	2	-0.05	2	0%	-0.02
Troy Hudson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.11	-0.03	-0.00	5	36%	-0.06	3	-0.08	4	75%	-0.00
Mike Miller	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.07	-0.08	-0.01	10	30%	-0.12	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	27.3	2.5	32.4	19.0	30.5	2.0	41.0	1.6	20.0	176.2
league avg	28.8	2.2	28.9	16.6	26.2	2.2	33.1	1.7	17.2	139.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +33.5%

MIL -6.9%

ORL +4.8%

ORL +13.7%

ORL +5.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	ORL	NBA	MIL	ORL	NBA
this game	13.0	15.1	15.5	101.8	108.0	100.9
season	14.9	14.6		105.9	101.6
opponent	15.8	15.8		100.8	102.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
MIL	11.4	13.1	14.3	14.3	11.1	13.0
ORL	13.4	15.7	14.5	17.0	16.2	15.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Darvin Ham	42	43	0.38	-0.88	1.26	-0.12	17	-22	39	12.7	13.2	-0.44	16.5	14.3	2.18
Lindsey Hunter	39	38	-0.01	-0.49	0.49	0.14	-5	0	-5	15.4	11.8	3.68	13.8	15.8	-2.05
Mark Pope	30	30	-0.06	-0.44	0.37	0.03	-3	-2	-1	11.1	13.7	-2.60	13.8	15.6	-1.83
Scott Williams	44	43	-0.25	-0.25	-0.01	-0.02	-8	3	-11	12.2	13.6	-1.40	14.0	15.8	-1.82
Tim Thomas	71	67	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.41	4	-9	13	13.7	11.9	1.86	16.0	13.9	2.13
Jason Caffey	35	34	-0.30	-0.20	-0.11	-0.07	-8	3	-11	16.1	11.7	4.39	14.4	15.4	-1.01
Sam Cassell	93	91	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.30	-3	-2	-1	12.6	14.9	-2.31	15.4	14.0	1.47
Ray Allen	107	106	-0.46	-0.04	-0.41	-0.40	-2	-3	1	12.8	17.0	-4.24	15.2	13.8	1.38
Ervin Johnson	25	22	-0.47	-0.03	-0.45	-0.36	-4	-1	-3	12.7	13.1	-0.38	15.1	15.1	-0.01
Glenn Robinson	84	86	-0.65	0.15	-0.79	-0.27	-13	8	-21	12.2	15.3	-3.10	15.3	14.5	0.79

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tracy McGrady	104	105	0.66	-0.16	0.82	0.31	12	-7	19	15.0	16.6	-1.60	13.4	8.3	5.09
Dee Brown	46	48	0.64	-0.14	0.77	0.34	10	-5	15	15.8	14.7	1.05	14.1	12.2	1.95
Pat Garrity	64	67	0.63	-0.13	0.75	0.51	4	1	3	16.2	13.8	2.40	13.7	12.1	1.59
Bo Outlaw	92	92	0.59	-0.09	0.68	0.41	6	-1	7	15.1	15.2	-0.13	12.7	14.5	-1.78
Darrell Armstrong	103	106	0.55	-0.05	0.60	0.32	8	-3	11	15.0	16.9	-1.90	13.0	13.5	-0.52
Mike Miller	52	52	0.39	0.11	0.29	0.31	3	2	1	14.4	15.8	-1.38	12.5	13.4	-0.88
Andrew DeClercq	33	33	0.03	0.47	-0.44	0.06	-1	6	-7	13.9	15.7	-1.75	12.4	13.3	-0.92
John Amaechi	13	14	0.01	0.49	-0.48	-0.05	2	3	-1	15.2	15.1	0.10	14.8	12.8	2.02
Monty Williams	5	6	-0.09	0.59	-0.67	0.06	-5	10	-15	16.4	15.1	1.32	9.3	13.2	-3.89
Troy Hudson	25	25	-0.43	0.93	-1.37	-0.23	-7	12	-19	15.5	15.0	0.43	11.1	13.6	-2.43
Michael Doleac	23	22	-0.48	0.98	-1.46	-0.28	-7	12	-19	15.1	15.2	-0.07	12.4	13.2	-0.75

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.52,0.53,0.56,0.55,0.45,0.45,0.43,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.44,0.42,0.46,0.44,0.44,0.51,0.59,0.56,0.51,0.41,0.33,0.35,0.34,0.39,0.36,0.42,0.48,0.59,0.61,0.63,0.71,0.79,0.74,0.78,0.75,0.86,0.81,0.87,0.97,0.99,0.97,0.96,0.94,0.84,0.54,0.53,0.46,0.55,0.96,1
Game		Similarity Score
POR 111, DEN 115	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.59,0.6,0.62,0.6,0.59,0.59,0.57,0.57,0.45,0.42,0.46,0.38,0.36,0.44,0.44,0.4,0.41,0.51,0.56,0.49,0.44,0.44,0.46,0.4,0.4,0.48,0.58,0.48,0.62,0.71,0.62,0.66,0.63,0.68,0.7,0.87,0.88,0.83,0.81,0.74,0.71,0.78,0.93,0.93,0.91,0.74,0.54,0.54,0.54,0.77,0.73,1	90.1%
LAL 111, MIA 114	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.54,0.49,0.43,0.53,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.46,0.51,0.54,0.44,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.43,0.45,0.52,0.45,0.52,0.52,0.45,0.66,0.73,0.67,0.62,0.74,0.74,0.85,0.86,0.77,0.74,0.81,0.66,0.8,0.89,0.85,0.58,0.46,0.45,0.45,0.68,0.83,1	90.0%
WAS 120, CLE 121	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.43,0.43,0.45,0.47,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.53,0.42,0.4,0.42,0.46,0.44,0.39,0.46,0.54,0.46,0.5,0.51,0.54,0.66,0.61,0.55,0.45,0.59,0.41,0.56,0.67,0.68,0.66,0.82,0.79,0.76,0.77,0.87,0.85,0.82,0.92,0.85,0.96,0.96,0.46,0.69,0.66,0.45,0.83,1	89.6%