NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	107		Excitement	4.1 [974]		MVP	Terry Porter (SAS): +18.2%
Vancouver Grizzlies	99		Comeback	2.9 [724]		LVP	Michael Dickerson (VAN): -9.5%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Terry Porter	0.18	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.18,0.22,0.22,0.2,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.18,0.18	0.07	0.04	-0.07	14	67%	0.21	2	-0.03	5	100%	0.03
Tim Duncan	0.11	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.06	0.00	-0.04	17	70%	0.15	4	-0.04	10	70%	0.01
David Robinson	0.08	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.06	0.02	-0.01	8	79%	0.11	2	-0.03	8	62%	-0.02
Antonio Daniels	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.00	0.00	4	100%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Malik Rose	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.00	0.00	-0.01	3	67%	0.02	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Sean Elliott	0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.00	0.01	-0.00	5	58%	0.04	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Avery Johnson	-0.01	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.00	-0.00	0.01	8	56%	0.02	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.00
Jaren Jackson	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	6	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Samaki Walker	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jerome Kersey	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	5	20%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Vancouver Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mike Bibby	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.12	0.03	0.04	19	63%	0.13	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	-0.00	-0.01	17	57%	0.06	3	-0.05	6	100%	0.01
Cherokee Parks	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	0.00	0.01	0	100%	0.01	0	0.00	4	100%	0.01
Felipe Lopez	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Milt Palacio	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bryant Reeves	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.00	5	60%	0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Othella Harrington	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.01	-0.01	0.02	11	66%	0.05	3	-0.07	7	100%	0.03
Dennis Scott	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.01	0.01	6	25%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Dickerson	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.05,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.1	-0.10	-0.05	-0.07	-0.02	23	42%	-0.06	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.2	2.4	24.5	16.4	25.1	1.8	27.0	118.4
league avg	26.0	2.2	28.8	16.5	26.3	2.2	33.7	137.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +43.9%

SAS +0.3%

VAN -3.0%

SAS +6.4%

SAS +2.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	VAN	NBA	SAS	VAN	NBA
this game	15.0	17.0	15.2	118.9	110.0	101.7
season	15.5	15.9		101.6	99.5
opponent	15.0	15.4		105.9	95.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	13.9	15.2	13.1	17.9	15.0
VAN	15.5	19.0	18.8	14.8	17.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Terry Porter	57	58	0.76	-0.26	1.02	-0.06	28	-20	48	13.6	17.4	-3.85	18.9	13.6	5.35
Sean Elliott	49	48	0.71	-0.21	0.93	-0.11	28	-20	48	13.0	17.4	-4.41	19.5	14.2	5.33
David Robinson	45	46	0.45	0.05	0.41	0.13	11	-3	14	13.8	16.2	-2.33	18.4	15.6	2.82
Tim Duncan	85	84	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.21	8	0	8	14.6	20.8	-6.15	17.0	17.8	-0.88
Avery Johnson	59	58	0.35	0.15	0.20	0.29	2	6	-4	14.2	16.6	-2.43	17.0	17.0	0.07
Malik Rose	40	41	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.11	6	2	4	16.9	13.4	3.48	16.7	17.3	-0.65
Antonio Daniels	31	32	0.15	0.35	-0.20	-0.03	6	2	4	16.6	14.2	2.43	17.0	17.0	-0.07
Samaki Walker	10	9	-0.19	0.69	-0.89	0.07	-9	17	-26	15.4	14.9	0.46	12.1	17.6	-5.44
Jerome Kersey	37	37	-0.22	0.72	-0.94	0.31	-18	26	-44	17.6	13.1	4.52	14.2	18.9	-4.70
Jaren Jackson	37	37	-0.26	0.76	-1.01	0.39	-22	30	-52	17.2	13.5	3.69	13.6	19.4	-5.85

Vancouver Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Felipe Lopez	3	4	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	0.01	-2	-6	4	16.3	17.0	-0.70	14.7	15.0	-0.25
Milt Palacio	7	6	-0.06	-0.44	0.39	0.00	-2	-6	4	15.7	17.1	-1.41	16.7	14.9	1.80
Cherokee Parks	27	28	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	0.01	-7	-1	-6	16.0	17.5	-1.50	13.7	15.6	-1.85
Othella Harrington	76	77	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.42	7	-15	22	16.7	18.9	-2.19	14.9	15.4	-0.46
Bryant Reeves	34	33	-0.29	-0.21	-0.09	-0.03	-9	1	-10	18.5	16.1	2.44	13.7	15.8	-2.09
Dennis Scott	45	44	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.11	-8	0	-8	17.1	17.0	0.11	16.4	13.6	2.82
Mike Bibby	83	84	-0.44	-0.06	-0.39	-0.27	-6	-2	-4	17.1	15.7	1.41	14.9	16.7	-1.80
Michael Dickerson	87	86	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.27	-6	-2	-4	17.0	16.3	0.70	15.0	14.7	0.25
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	88	88	-0.46	-0.04	-0.41	-0.25	-7	-1	-6	17.0	17.0	0.01	15.2	4.5	10.73

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.55,0.54,0.55,0.55,0.47,0.45,0.45,0.51,0.62,0.63,0.62,0.69,0.73,0.67,0.65,0.54,0.54,0.51,0.44,0.46,0.46,0.49,0.45,0.34,0.36,0.36,0.27,0.2,0.12,0.08,0.09,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.09,0.06,0.05,0.01,0.04,0.01,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
WAS 96, CLE 85	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.62,0.65,0.66,0.64,0.64,0.67,0.6,0.59,0.56,0.49,0.49,0.44,0.41,0.42,0.4,0.37,0.31,0.3,0.3,0.29,0.23,0.16,0.08,0.14,0.11,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.07,0.1,0.06,0.04,0.05,0,0,0,0,0	95.2%
PHX 105, GSW 97	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.52,0.5,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.6,0.6,0.6,0.64,0.66,0.6,0.54,0.42,0.49,0.44,0.46,0.54,0.49,0.5,0.45,0.4,0.34,0.33,0.27,0.16,0.1,0.09,0.07,0.08,0.12,0.08,0.04,0.07,0.11,0.04,0.06,0.09,0.07,0.1,0.05,0.01,0.01,0	94.9%
MIA 97, CHI 90	0.5,0.49,0.56,0.55,0.58,0.56,0.48,0.47,0.45,0.49,0.5,0.55,0.62,0.57,0.55,0.6,0.62,0.6,0.56,0.48,0.48,0.46,0.51,0.44,0.49,0.5,0.4,0.43,0.39,0.36,0.39,0.32,0.25,0.14,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.05,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0	94.6%