NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	97		Excitement	4.0 [987]		MVP	A.J. Guyton (CHI): +14.3%
Chicago Bulls	90		Comeback	2.0 [883]		LVP	Jamal Crawford (CHI): -12.0%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Cedric Ceballos	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.07,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.09	0.01	-0.01	6	81%	0.10	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Anthony Mason	0.08	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.05	0.02	-0.00	8	78%	0.11	2	-0.04	7	57%	-0.02
Bruce Bowen	0.07	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07	0.05	0.02	-0.01	3	80%	0.07	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.01
Tim Hardaway	0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05	-0.00	0.01	-0.04	20	52%	0.07	3	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Dan Majerle	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.07	-0.01	0.03	7	71%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Alonzo Mourning	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.05	6	67%	0.05	3	-0.03	6	67%	-0.01
A.C. Green	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eddie House	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04	-0.06	0.00	-0.01	4	50%	0.01	3	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Brian Grant	-0.08	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.09	-0.02	-0.02	10	48%	-0.02	4	-0.07	3	100%	0.02

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
A.J. Guyton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.22	0.00	0.09	8	119%	0.14	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marcus Fizer	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	-0.00	-0.00	8	61%	0.04	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Jake Voskuhl	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	-0.01	0.00	2	100%	0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Elton Brand	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	17	50%	0.03	1	-0.02	6	67%	-0.02
Corey Benjamin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	1	100%	0.01	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Steve Goodrich	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Fred Hoiberg	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.01	0.03	5	50%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Metta World Peace	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06	-0.06	-0.07	0.00	-0.00	12	45%	-0.01	2	-0.05	5	40%	-0.02
Ron Mercer	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.03,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.06	-0.03	0.00	16	37%	-0.06	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jamal Crawford	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.12	-0.04	-0.04	10	19%	-0.09	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.2	2.4	24.4	16.7	25.2	2.5	31.4	129.8
league avg	28.8	2.2	28.9	16.6	26.2	2.2	33.1	139.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +33.0%

MIA +6.8%

MIA +4.9%

MIA +4.4%

MIA +0.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	CHI	NBA	MIA	CHI	NBA
this game	15.3	18.6	15.5	114.1	105.9	100.9
season	16.3	16.4		98.4	95.2
opponent	15.1	16.1		104.9	96.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	15.0	15.3	15.6	15.3	15.3
CHI	17.0	20.7	20.2	16.7	18.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dan Majerle	60	59	0.59	-0.09	0.68	-0.06	22	-15	37	14.7	16.8	-2.06	18.3	19.2	-0.89
Brian Grant	58	58	0.55	-0.05	0.61	0.11	15	-8	23	14.8	16.4	-1.67	18.7	18.3	0.36
Tim Hardaway	66	65	0.54	-0.04	0.59	0.22	11	-4	15	15.3	15.2	0.19	18.1	20.2	-2.12
Anthony Mason	66	67	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.22	8	-1	9	15.2	15.6	-0.42	19.1	16.7	2.42
Bruce Bowen	71	72	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.32	3	4	-1	15.2	15.6	-0.40	18.5	19.1	-0.59
A.C. Green	19	18	0.05	0.45	-0.40	0.08	-1	8	-9	15.6	15.2	0.42	16.7	19.1	-2.42
Cedric Ceballos	35	36	0.03	0.47	-0.44	0.15	-4	11	-15	16.1	14.7	1.42	19.6	17.8	1.75
Alonzo Mourning	27	27	-0.05	0.55	-0.61	0.18	-8	15	-23	16.4	14.8	1.67	18.3	18.7	-0.36
Eddie House	23	23	-0.07	0.57	-0.65	0.25	-11	18	-29	15.7	15.2	0.53	19.4	18.3	1.12

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
A.J. Guyton	37	37	0.07	-0.57	0.64	-0.14	7	-14	21	18.4	18.7	-0.30	16.3	14.6	1.71
Fred Hoiberg	52	52	0.03	-0.53	0.56	-0.29	11	-18	29	17.9	19.6	-1.63	15.3	15.3	0.00
Steve Goodrich	10	9	0.03	-0.53	0.56	-0.15	6	-13	19	15.1	19.0	-3.94	18.9	14.9	4.01
Corey Benjamin	10	10	0.03	-0.53	0.55	-0.12	5	-12	17	15.1	19.0	-3.94	18.3	14.9	3.39
Jake Voskuhl	28	26	-0.25	-0.25	-0.00	-0.08	-6	-1	-5	21.2	17.3	3.93	16.3	14.9	1.44
Elton Brand	68	68	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.25	-1	-6	5	18.2	20.1	-1.93	15.4	15.1	0.31
Marcus Fizer	44	45	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	0.03	-16	9	-25	19.8	17.3	2.53	14.5	16.2	-1.74
Ron Mercer	67	67	-0.52	0.02	-0.53	-0.19	-11	4	-15	18.7	18.2	0.45	15.0	16.6	-1.59
Jamal Crawford	48	48	-0.57	0.07	-0.64	-0.16	-14	7	-21	18.7	18.4	0.30	14.6	16.3	-1.71
Metta World Peace	61	63	-0.60	0.10	-0.70	-0.13	-16	9	-25	18.5	18.8	-0.30	14.8	16.8	-2.04

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.56,0.55,0.58,0.56,0.48,0.47,0.45,0.49,0.5,0.55,0.62,0.57,0.55,0.6,0.62,0.6,0.56,0.48,0.48,0.46,0.51,0.44,0.49,0.5,0.4,0.43,0.39,0.36,0.39,0.32,0.25,0.14,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.05,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
NJN 111, MIL 98	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.5,0.54,0.5,0.47,0.43,0.45,0.47,0.45,0.54,0.52,0.58,0.6,0.68,0.69,0.65,0.51,0.54,0.49,0.54,0.49,0.46,0.5,0.49,0.4,0.39,0.36,0.42,0.29,0.23,0.16,0.14,0.08,0.11,0.08,0.07,0.03,0.05,0.12,0.08,0.11,0.02,0,0,0,0,0	95.0%
LAL 122, LAC 98	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.5,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.63,0.62,0.58,0.53,0.56,0.49,0.49,0.39,0.39,0.49,0.49,0.59,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.42,0.39,0.33,0.32,0.29,0.21,0.14,0.19,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.0%
GSW 105, NJN 97	0.5,0.49,0.55,0.55,0.52,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.43,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.52,0.55,0.62,0.55,0.53,0.46,0.44,0.52,0.49,0.46,0.44,0.33,0.5,0.4,0.46,0.31,0.33,0.33,0.29,0.23,0.22,0.15,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0	94.9%