NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	88		Excitement	9.8 [66]		MVP	Hersey Hawkins (CHI): +32.3%
Chicago Bulls	90		Comeback	1.5 [272]		LVP	Chris Carr (CHI): -32.7%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Glenn Robinson	0.07	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.11,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.05,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.05	0.01	-0.01	23	51%	0.07	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.03
Ray Allen	-0.00	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.02,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.16,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.21,0	-0.11	0.10	-0.01	19	42%	0.05	3	-0.05	7	86%	0.11
Tim Thomas	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.01,-0.01	-0.04	0.03	-0.00	8	37%	-0.01	0	0.00	3	100%	0.03
Danny Manning	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Darvin Ham	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	0.00	4	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Vinny Del Negro	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	4	50%	0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Scott Williams	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.00	-0.00	7	31%	-0.03	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Ervin Johnson	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.01	-0.06	0.01	5	57%	-0.06	1	-0.03	4	50%	-0.02
Sam Cassell	-0.28	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.18,-0.18,-0.21,-0.21,-0.26,-0.21,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.28	-0.08	-0.19	0.01	19	44%	-0.19	3	-0.09	3	67%	-0.01

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Hersey Hawkins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.15,0.15,0.32,0.32	0.32	0.07	0.26	0.01	7	87%	0.41	3	-0.09	9	100%	0.23
Dickey Simpkins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.02	0.04	0.00	1	100%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Elton Brand	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	0.00	0.00	15	57%	0.05	1	-0.02	5	80%	0.00
Metta World Peace	0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.09,-0.11,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.14,-0.21,-0.2,-0.16,0.01	0.01	-0.08	0.09	-0.00	16	44%	0.07	2	-0.06	7	29%	-0.17
Michael Ruffin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	-0.01	0.00	2	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Anstey	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	0.00	7	60%	0.02	1	-0.04	6	67%	-0.01
Corey Benjamin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	4	37%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Matt Maloney	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19	-0.19	-0.15	-0.05	-0.01	5	30%	-0.01	6	-0.17	0	0%	0.00
Chris Carr	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.15,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.33	-0.33	-0.15	-0.19	-0.01	13	37%	-0.22	4	-0.10	4	50%	-0.10

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.3	2.3	26.6	16.3	26.4	2.6	38.8	135.4
league avg	26.0	2.2	28.8	16.5	26.3	2.2	33.7	137.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHI +67.5%

MIL -9.3%

CHI +14.7%

MIL -32.2%

CHI +9.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	CHI	NBA	MIL	CHI	NBA
this game	15.3	18.0	15.2	101.1	104.7	101.7
season	14.9	16.5		105.5	91.8
opponent	14.9	15.4		102.3	105.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	14.5	17.0	13.6	16.2	15.3
CHI	17.5	16.5	17.7	20.8	18.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Vinny Del Negro	26	26	0.02	-0.52	0.54	-0.21	8	-10	18	18.1	14.0	4.07	18.8	17.7	1.09
Danny Manning	8	9	-0.04	-0.46	0.43	-0.04	0	-2	2	18.2	15.0	3.29	19.9	17.8	2.06
Scott Williams	29	28	-0.14	-0.36	0.23	-0.22	3	-5	8	17.9	14.0	3.90	19.3	17.4	1.84
Tim Thomas	47	45	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.33	4	-6	10	16.3	14.0	2.29	19.3	16.7	2.65
Darvin Ham	50	49	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.16	-4	2	-6	14.0	16.9	-2.93	17.1	19.3	-2.20
Glenn Robinson	72	72	-0.32	-0.18	-0.15	-0.21	-4	2	-6	15.0	16.3	-1.29	17.7	19.6	-1.82
Ervin Johnson	54	54	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.23	-7	5	-12	13.9	17.6	-3.72	17.6	18.8	-1.22
Sam Cassell	74	75	-0.53	0.03	-0.55	-0.35	-6	4	-10	15.0	16.9	-1.95	18.0	18.4	-0.36
Ray Allen	75	72	-0.58	0.08	-0.66	-0.46	-4	2	-6	14.6	19.2	-4.53	17.6	20.4	-2.76

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Metta World Peace	66	66	0.63	-0.13	0.76	0.43	7	-5	12	18.0	18.0	-0.00	14.9	16.5	-1.60
Matt Maloney	54	54	0.58	-0.08	0.65	0.25	11	-9	20	19.0	16.4	2.56	16.3	13.6	2.67
Elton Brand	66	66	0.51	-0.01	0.52	0.25	9	-7	16	18.3	17.1	1.17	15.0	16.2	-1.28
Hersey Hawkins	62	63	0.43	0.07	0.37	0.43	0	2	-2	17.0	20.6	-3.58	14.4	17.5	-3.14
Chris Carr	56	57	0.25	0.25	0.01	0.37	-4	6	-10	18.2	17.7	0.53	15.3	15.3	-0.00
Chris Anstey	44	47	0.10	0.40	-0.29	0.05	2	0	2	17.5	18.6	-1.12	16.2	14.1	2.06
Dickey Simpkins	20	20	0.09	0.41	-0.32	0.12	-1	3	-4	18.1	18.0	0.13	15.2	15.3	-0.08
Michael Ruffin	42	41	0.03	0.47	-0.44	0.29	-9	11	-20	18.1	18.0	0.19	14.7	15.8	-1.05
Corey Benjamin	20	21	-0.13	0.63	-0.76	0.02	-5	7	-12	18.0	18.0	0.00	16.5	14.9	1.60

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.42,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.43,0.51,0.58,0.57,0.6,0.56,0.58,0.55,0.53,0.58,0.58,0.65,0.61,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.58,0.65,0.68,0.73,0.67,0.79,0.77,0.85,0.86,0.73,0.77,0.68,0.74,0.81,0.67,0.71,0.63,0.59,0.59,0.67,0.61,0.64,0.85,0.9,1
Game		Similarity Score
IND 97, TOR 105	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.44,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.55,0.53,0.6,0.51,0.52,0.53,0.47,0.5,0.56,0.61,0.56,0.61,0.52,0.58,0.54,0.51,0.5,0.57,0.6,0.64,0.73,0.79,0.68,0.74,0.76,0.7,0.67,0.72,0.74,0.7,0.67,0.67,0.58,0.53,0.6,0.66,0.61,0.79,0.98,1,1	93.6%
IND 88, ORL 92	0.5,0.49,0.5,0.48,0.45,0.5,0.48,0.53,0.53,0.45,0.43,0.47,0.51,0.6,0.58,0.55,0.6,0.58,0.56,0.66,0.69,0.61,0.61,0.64,0.67,0.7,0.71,0.72,0.78,0.81,0.79,0.74,0.78,0.84,0.8,0.81,0.79,0.66,0.7,0.62,0.62,0.73,0.59,0.59,0.55,0.53,0.71,0.85,0.85,1	93.4%
PHI 90, DEN 93	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.5,0.47,0.42,0.43,0.43,0.51,0.55,0.49,0.49,0.43,0.47,0.53,0.56,0.6,0.56,0.63,0.61,0.54,0.58,0.61,0.61,0.58,0.68,0.66,0.64,0.64,0.67,0.68,0.71,0.72,0.7,0.71,0.79,0.87,0.82,0.71,0.67,0.53,0.63,0.59,0.6,0.55,0.55,0.85,0.83,1	93.0%