NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	111		Excitement	7.8 [276]		MVP	Jason Terry (ATL): +16.0%
Atlanta Hawks	116		Comeback	1.7 [648]		LVP	Raef LaFrentz (DEN): -13.1%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
George McCloud	0.10	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.01,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.15,0.1	0.07	0.02	-0.01	13	71%	0.18	3	-0.08	2	100%	0.01
James Posey	0.10	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.04	0.06	0.00	7	68%	0.12	1	-0.03	5	80%	0.01
Keon Clark	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.03	-0.01	-0.00	8	71%	0.10	2	-0.08	5	60%	-0.00
Antonio McDyess	0.01	0,0,0.02,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01	0.01	-0.01	-0.01	23	54%	0.06	2	-0.05	6	67%	-0.03
Popeye Jones	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Herren	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ryan Bowen	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nick Van Exel	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.03,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.19,0.19,0.15,0.12,0.09,0.05,0.05,-0.08	-0.02	-0.07	-0.01	21	50%	-0.01	2	-0.07	6	67%	-0.02
Chris Gatling	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.06	-0.02	0.00	6	17%	-0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Raef LaFrentz	-0.13	0,0,0,0.01,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.05	-0.07	0.01	9	45%	-0.04	2	-0.09	2	50%	-0.01

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jason Terry	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.07	0.10	0.01	6	86%	0.18	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Lorenzen Wright	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.05	0.00	0.00	6	67%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
LaPhonso Ellis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05	0.05	0.01	0.04	-0.00	16	47%	0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Jim Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.01	0.03	-0.00	11	58%	0.10	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Dion Glover	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.03	0.03	0.00	4	37%	0.04	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Dikembe Mutombo	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.06,-0.01	-0.01	0.05	-0.04	0.02	10	89%	0.23	6	-0.24	7	86%	0.02
Alan Henderson	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.02	-0.00	15	60%	0.08	5	-0.14	10	80%	0.01
Bimbo Coles	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.09,-0.08	-0.08	-0.07	-0.04	-0.02	6	45%	-0.06	1	-0.03	8	62%	-0.00
Roshown McLeod	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.06	-0.03	0.01	8	37%	-0.05	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.9	1.6	27.7	15.8	26.2	2.6	34.4	133.2
league avg	26.0	2.2	28.8	16.5	26.3	2.2	33.7	137.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ATL +22.1%

ATL +12.7%

ATL +31.6%

DEN -18.0%

ATL +1.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	ATL	NBA	DEN	ATL	NBA
this game	15.5	14.6	15.2	116.8	120.8	101.7
season	14.8	15.4		101.5	99.3
opponent	15.2	15.0		105.1	103.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	14.8	16.8	16.0	14.5	15.5
ATL	12.9	14.5	14.0	17.4	14.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ryan Bowen	18	19	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	-0.04	0	-5	5	17.1	15.1	1.97	18.1	13.8	4.31
Chris Gatling	28	28	-0.10	-0.40	0.31	-0.04	-2	-3	1	15.8	15.4	0.38	13.1	15.3	-2.12
Chris Herren	14	13	-0.18	-0.32	0.15	-0.00	-6	1	-7	18.2	15.0	3.16	21.1	13.6	7.44
George McCloud	79	80	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.38	5	-10	15	15.4	16.2	-0.88	14.2	17.1	-2.90
Raef LaFrentz	54	55	-0.29	-0.21	-0.07	-0.05	-8	3	-11	16.0	14.9	1.04	15.3	13.8	1.47
Antonio McDyess	82	83	-0.29	-0.21	-0.09	-0.38	3	-8	11	14.9	19.2	-4.21	13.8	20.0	-6.19
Nick Van Exel	81	83	-0.32	-0.18	-0.15	-0.35	1	-6	7	15.0	18.2	-3.16	13.6	21.1	-7.44
James Posey	66	67	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.29	-5	0	-5	15.5	15.6	-0.15	13.7	16.8	-3.03
Keon Clark	53	52	-0.57	0.07	-0.63	-0.27	-10	5	-15	15.5	15.5	0.07	16.8	12.1	4.67

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
LaPhonso Ellis	53	52	0.68	-0.18	0.86	0.27	14	-9	23	15.9	13.1	2.77	15.2	16.0	-0.80
Dion Glover	40	40	0.62	-0.12	0.75	0.27	12	-7	19	14.7	14.6	0.14	15.1	15.8	-0.72
Lorenzen Wright	31	30	0.47	0.03	0.45	0.18	10	-5	15	16.9	13.6	3.29	16.1	15.2	0.85
Bimbo Coles	34	34	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.27	6	-1	7	15.7	14.1	1.64	14.5	16.1	-1.63
Dikembe Mutombo	87	85	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.27	3	2	1	14.2	19.0	-4.80	15.5	15.4	0.13
Alan Henderson	74	75	0.17	0.33	-0.16	0.26	-3	8	-11	14.2	16.0	-1.76	15.3	16.4	-1.18
Jason Terry	62	61	0.06	0.44	-0.38	0.09	-1	6	-7	14.1	15.7	-1.64	16.1	14.5	1.63
Jim Jackson	56	55	-0.12	0.62	-0.75	0.08	-7	12	-19	14.6	14.7	-0.14	15.8	15.1	0.72
Roshown McLeod	43	43	-0.18	0.68	-0.86	0.08	-9	14	-23	13.1	15.9	-2.77	16.0	15.2	0.80

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.51,0.52,0.45,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.38,0.4,0.5,0.5,0.58,0.67,0.6,0.56,0.61,0.64,0.69,0.79,0.72,0.78,0.75,0.65,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.64,0.68,0.59,0.59,0.63,0.63,0.6,0.62,0.7,0.75,0.67,0.63,0.64,0.85,0.9,0.9,0.89,0.85,0.91,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIN 95, DAL 102	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.58,0.55,0.53,0.45,0.43,0.45,0.46,0.54,0.56,0.53,0.62,0.62,0.63,0.65,0.68,0.76,0.77,0.64,0.7,0.75,0.66,0.63,0.61,0.55,0.61,0.71,0.62,0.59,0.56,0.56,0.68,0.54,0.62,0.47,0.62,0.68,0.79,0.91,0.93,0.81,0.95,1,1,1	92.9%
ATL 100, NOK 107	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.57,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.43,0.43,0.49,0.47,0.51,0.43,0.38,0.44,0.53,0.51,0.54,0.56,0.54,0.66,0.74,0.75,0.75,0.75,0.74,0.6,0.55,0.58,0.53,0.58,0.65,0.56,0.7,0.63,0.56,0.54,0.62,0.62,0.52,0.63,0.79,0.85,0.95,0.96,0.95,0.93,1,1	92.8%
CHI 117, ATL 129	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.5,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.43,0.37,0.4,0.43,0.42,0.4,0.49,0.58,0.71,0.77,0.71,0.69,0.74,0.72,0.78,0.63,0.57,0.55,0.64,0.64,0.67,0.68,0.55,0.65,0.7,0.7,0.6,0.62,0.7,0.75,0.71,0.81,0.64,0.7,0.87,0.86,0.85,0.91,1,1	92.8%