NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Los Angeles Lakers	100		Excitement	5.9 [623]		MVP	Robert Horry (LAL): +20.8%
Miami Heat	89		Comeback	6.9 [251]		LVP	Tim Hardaway (MIA): -6.1%

Los Angeles Lakers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Robert Horry	0.21	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21	0.11	0.10	0.00	6	92%	0.21	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Kobe Bryant	0.05	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.05,0.05	-0.04	0.09	-0.01	25	45%	0.13	2	-0.08	1	100%	0.01
Shaquille O'Neal	0.03	0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.01	0.02	-0.01	22	56%	0.11	3	-0.08	6	67%	-0.00
Glen Rice	0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.03	0.03	0.04	15	67%	0.13	4	-0.11	12	92%	0.02
Brian Shaw	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Travis Knight	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Devean George	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
John Salley	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ron Harper	-0.02	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.00	-0.01	0.00	5	69%	0.06	2	-0.07	3	100%	0.02
A.C. Green	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Rick Fox	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Derek Fisher	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	0.00	2	0%	-0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Alonzo Mourning	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.06,0.06,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.06,0.07,0.1,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	-0.00	-0.00	25	55%	0.08	1	-0.04	10	90%	0.05
Mark Strickland	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	-0.01	0.00	7	62%	0.05	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Clar. Weatherspoon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.02	-0.01	9	54%	0.02	1	-0.04	6	83%	0.01
Anthony Carter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.07	0.04	-0.02	0	50%	0.04	3	-0.07	2	50%	0.04
Bruce Bowen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	2	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rodney Buford	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.03	0.00	5	40%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dan Majerle	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	2	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jamal Mashburn	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	17	38%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tim Hardaway	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.02	-0.01	14	47%	-0.02	2	-0.04	4	50%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.1	3.0	32.2	19.5	27.2	3.0	41.2	151.2
league avg	26.0	2.2	28.8	16.5	26.3	2.2	33.7	137.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

LAL +61.6%

MIA -0.3%

LAL +3.3%

MIA -19.1%

LAL +4.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	LAL	MIA	NBA	LAL	MIA	NBA
this game	14.7	16.1	15.2	106.4	95.7	101.7
season	15.3	15.7		105.6	101.2
opponent	15.9	15.1		98.2	98.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
LAL	15.4	16.6	11.8	15.5	14.7
MIA	15.3	15.4	17.0	16.5	16.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Los Angeles Lakers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Shaquille O'Neal	78	79	0.69	-0.19	0.87	0.16	18	-7	25	14.4	16.1	-1.69	16.5	13.6	2.88
A.C. Green	39	37	0.62	-0.12	0.74	0.06	19	-8	27	12.9	16.0	-3.16	15.4	16.5	-1.13
Glen Rice	82	81	0.56	-0.06	0.62	0.12	15	-4	19	14.5	16.5	-2.04	16.3	14.9	1.34
Kobe Bryant	86	86	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.11	13	-2	15	14.2	20.9	-6.72	16.0	17.1	-1.14
Ron Harper	48	46	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.04	14	-3	17	13.5	16.0	-2.54	16.3	15.8	0.52
Brian Shaw	31	30	0.04	0.46	-0.43	0.10	-2	13	-15	16.3	14.0	2.34	16.6	15.9	0.71
Derek Fisher	23	24	0.03	0.47	-0.45	0.11	-3	14	-17	17.3	13.9	3.47	15.3	16.4	-1.07
Travis Knight	2	1	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.06	2	9	-7	4.0	15.0	-10.96	17.0	16.1	0.92
John Salley	5	2	-0.01	0.51	-0.53	0.10	-4	15	-19	21.6	14.3	7.26	14.0	16.1	-2.13
Robert Horry	55	55	-0.10	0.60	-0.70	0.14	-8	19	-27	16.0	12.9	3.16	16.8	15.0	1.79
Devean George	2	3	-0.12	0.62	-0.75	-0.03	-3	14	-17	17.5	14.7	2.84	10.3	16.3	-5.94
Rick Fox	19	21	-0.13	0.63	-0.76	0.04	-6	17	-23	16.1	14.4	1.67	14.0	16.7	-2.63

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Clar. Weatherspoon	56	53	0.04	-0.54	0.59	-0.31	12	-23	35	15.9	16.4	-0.49	15.7	13.4	2.28
Rodney Buford	26	26	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	-0.11	2	-13	15	15.9	16.2	-0.28	15.8	14.3	1.45
Anthony Carter	25	25	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	-0.15	3	-14	17	14.4	16.7	-2.25	16.1	14.2	1.85
Bruce Bowen	46	47	-0.17	-0.33	0.17	-0.25	3	-14	17	15.9	16.2	-0.30	15.2	14.3	0.89
Jamal Mashburn	80	80	-0.29	-0.21	-0.07	-0.05	-8	-3	-5	16.2	15.3	0.90	14.7	15.0	-0.32
Dan Majerle	48	49	-0.33	-0.17	-0.17	0.14	-16	5	-21	16.2	15.9	0.34	13.9	15.7	-1.81
Tim Hardaway	68	69	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.03	-14	3	-17	16.7	14.4	2.25	14.2	16.1	-1.85
Alonzo Mourning	79	82	-0.57	0.07	-0.64	-0.19	-13	2	-15	16.4	14.4	2.04	14.7	15.0	-0.32
Mark Strickland	37	39	-0.64	0.14	-0.78	0.07	-24	13	-37	15.6	16.4	-0.86	13.4	15.7	-2.24

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.46,0.45,0.47,0.47,0.39,0.45,0.42,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.58,0.62,0.67,0.65,0.7,0.68,0.66,0.75,0.75,0.78,0.84,0.84,0.76,0.67,0.64,0.58,0.45,0.41,0.41,0.48,0.4,0.4,0.26,0.13,0.18,0.24,0.15,0.14,0.15,0.22,0.19,0.11,0.14,0.01,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIL 113, GSW 104	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.47,0.41,0.42,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.53,0.54,0.56,0.54,0.55,0.66,0.66,0.71,0.76,0.72,0.66,0.66,0.64,0.62,0.75,0.73,0.71,0.63,0.61,0.58,0.58,0.52,0.38,0.48,0.48,0.56,0.56,0.3,0.22,0.21,0.2,0.19,0.17,0.12,0.22,0.19,0.11,0.05,0.08,0	93.1%
MIL 91, MIA 84	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.39,0.41,0.47,0.47,0.55,0.55,0.58,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.62,0.6,0.61,0.65,0.73,0.76,0.72,0.79,0.73,0.73,0.68,0.69,0.61,0.61,0.55,0.58,0.45,0.41,0.34,0.4,0.44,0.3,0.26,0.21,0.14,0.12,0.1,0.08,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.02,0	92.9%
MIL 101, CLE 100	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.42,0.47,0.46,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.45,0.6,0.56,0.58,0.6,0.67,0.65,0.65,0.68,0.72,0.74,0.67,0.75,0.75,0.79,0.8,0.75,0.64,0.58,0.42,0.38,0.38,0.44,0.44,0.48,0.42,0.34,0.29,0.38,0.32,0.26,0.11,0.22,0.07,0.03,0.04,0.04,0	92.8%