NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Seattle SuperSonics	83		Excitement	3.9 [1003]		MVP	Mark Strickland (MIA): +11.5%
Miami Heat	101		Comeback	1.3 [703]		LVP	Brent Barry (SEA): -9.2%

Seattle SuperSonics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ruben Patterson	0.09	0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.14	0.01	0.06	17	67%	0.09	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Vin Baker	0.03	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.01	15	56%	0.03	0	0.00	11	82%	-0.00
Shammond Williams	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rashard Lewis	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.01	-0.02	0.02	5	60%	0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Chuck Person	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	2	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Greg Foster	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Horace Grant	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.01	4	25%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gary Payton	-0.07	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.06,-0.08,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.13	-0.01	-0.08	23	38%	-0.05	2	-0.01	6	67%	-0.01
Emanual Davis	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.10	-0.01	-0.03	5	0%	-0.07	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Brent Barry	-0.09	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.06	-0.01	0.02	11	35%	-0.07	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mark Strickland	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.08	0.03	-0.01	6	87%	0.12	1	-0.01	3	100%	0.02
P.J. Brown	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.05	0.01	-0.01	11	64%	0.09	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Jamal Mashburn	0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.07,0.06,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.09	0.02	0.05	20	69%	0.14	4	-0.08	2	100%	0.01
Duane Causwell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.02	-0.00	1	75%	0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Tim Hardaway	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.04	0.01	0.03	13	62%	0.04	2	-0.03	3	100%	0.01
Bruce Bowen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.03	0.00	0.02	1	100%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Clar. Weatherspoon	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.05	-0.00	0.04	8	65%	0.01	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.01
Anthony Carter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.05	-0.00	-0.03	2	0%	-0.02	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Dan Majerle	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.05	-0.03	-0.00	8	41%	-0.03	2	-0.04	1	0%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.4	1.8	24.0	14.8	25.2	2.6	25.5	118.3
league avg	26.0	2.2	28.8	16.5	26.3	2.2	33.7	137.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +54.1%

SEA -0.6%

MIA +4.6%

SEA -7.5%

SEA -0.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SEA	MIA	NBA	SEA	MIA	NBA
this game	18.8	17.2	15.2	105.1	124.7	101.7
season	14.9	15.7		103.5	101.2
opponent	15.9	15.4		98.2	102.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SEA	21.4	17.8	16.6	19.4	18.8
MIA	14.6	21.0	16.9	16.6	17.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Seattle SuperSonics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Greg Foster	11	11	0.05	-0.55	0.59	-0.16	7	-25	32	19.1	18.7	0.34	19.4	16.9	2.48
Shammond Williams	0	1	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.00	0	-18	18	0.0	18.8	-18.80	2.0	17.4	-15.41
Chuck Person	17	19	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	0.17	-6	-12	6	14.8	19.9	-5.14	17.9	17.0	0.95
Rashard Lewis	22	23	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	-0.22	6	-24	30	19.1	18.7	0.41	17.4	17.2	0.24
Emanual Davis	24	25	-0.25	-0.25	-0.00	0.16	-14	-4	-10	19.1	18.7	0.41	16.4	17.6	-1.19
Horace Grant	48	50	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	0.08	-15	-3	-12	18.5	19.3	-0.76	17.0	17.6	-0.63
Brent Barry	71	72	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.01	-13	-5	-8	19.1	16.5	2.56	17.2	17.1	0.13
Ruben Patterson	49	49	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	0.02	-14	-4	-10	19.2	18.1	1.12	16.9	17.8	-0.92
Gary Payton	79	80	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	0.03	-18	0	-18	18.8	0.0	18.80	17.4	2.0	15.41
Vin Baker	74	75	-0.60	0.10	-0.71	0.07	-23	5	-28	19.2	13.4	5.76	17.3	15.8	1.50

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tim Hardaway	61	61	0.52	-0.02	0.54	-0.13	22	-4	26	17.3	17.0	0.23	19.4	16.7	2.76
Jamal Mashburn	67	64	0.48	0.02	0.47	-0.13	21	-3	24	16.6	20.2	-3.62	18.4	20.5	-2.14
P.J. Brown	64	63	0.46	0.04	0.41	-0.04	17	1	16	17.3	16.9	0.43	19.6	15.7	3.82
Clar. Weatherspoon	65	64	0.44	0.06	0.38	-0.17	21	-3	24	17.2	17.4	-0.27	18.8	18.7	0.08
Dan Majerle	66	63	0.41	0.09	0.32	-0.21	21	-3	24	17.0	18.0	-0.95	18.4	20.5	-2.13
Mark Strickland	28	29	0.08	0.42	-0.33	0.17	-3	21	-24	19.3	16.1	3.15	18.9	18.7	0.21
Anthony Carter	26	25	0.07	0.43	-0.36	0.19	-4	22	-26	17.1	17.3	-0.16	17.9	19.2	-1.34
Duane Causwell	19	17	0.04	0.46	-0.43	0.09	-2	20	-22	16.3	17.5	-1.25	17.2	19.2	-2.07
Bruce Bowen	9	9	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.09	-3	21	-24	18.4	17.1	1.37	20.1	18.6	1.48

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.48,0.46,0.48,0.55,0.6,0.66,0.69,0.74,0.78,0.81,0.82,0.87,0.88,0.9,0.83,0.85,0.8,0.79,0.78,0.83,0.83,0.82,0.78,0.71,0.77,0.75,0.89,0.88,0.91,0.93,0.93,0.92,0.86,0.87,0.81,0.78,0.79,0.91,0.92,0.97,0.97,0.96,0.99,0.98,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
UTA 92, LAL 106	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.58,0.68,0.7,0.75,0.8,0.79,0.79,0.81,0.81,0.84,0.84,0.88,0.85,0.79,0.71,0.74,0.74,0.77,0.7,0.75,0.74,0.8,0.82,0.83,0.86,0.85,0.9,0.89,0.88,0.81,0.84,0.81,0.78,0.67,0.86,0.91,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.2%
HOU 88, TOR 101	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.5,0.5,0.55,0.57,0.61,0.65,0.69,0.71,0.75,0.78,0.81,0.85,0.82,0.83,0.85,0.78,0.75,0.76,0.86,0.85,0.83,0.84,0.86,0.82,0.82,0.85,0.86,0.95,0.97,0.97,0.98,0.96,0.95,0.92,0.91,0.88,0.95,0.99,0.99,0.95,0.96,0.95,0.99,1,1,1	94.7%
ORL 77, DET 89	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.54,0.57,0.57,0.53,0.57,0.61,0.68,0.7,0.73,0.75,0.81,0.85,0.89,0.91,0.87,0.83,0.78,0.75,0.73,0.77,0.75,0.78,0.86,0.86,0.86,0.85,0.78,0.81,0.87,0.88,0.87,0.8,0.83,0.87,0.85,0.78,0.85,0.94,0.96,0.96,0.95,0.98,1,0.98,1,1,1	94.5%