NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	100		Excitement	8.4 [187]		MVP	Cedric Ceballos (DAL): +27.0%
Toronto Raptors	96		Comeback	3.1 [145]		LVP	Michael Finley (DAL): -23.2%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Cedric Ceballos	0.27	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.1,0.12,0.14,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.15,0.25,0.25,0.22,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27	0.16	0.11	0.00	16	72%	0.27	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Greg Buckner	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.06	0.06	0.00	3	100%	0.12	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Erick Strickland	0.04	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.06,0.02,0.02,0,0.05,0.03,0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.02	12	64%	0.10	2	-0.06	4	50%	-0.04
Hubert Davis	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	6	33%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dennis Rodman	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	1	33%	-0.01	1	-0.04	1	100%	0.01
Steve Nash	-0.05	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.01	-0.03	0.01	3	50%	-0.01	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Sean Rooks	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08	-0.06	-0.03	-0.01	8	48%	-0.01	2	-0.07	5	40%	-0.06
Dirk Nowitzki	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,0,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.05	-0.04	0.01	9	46%	-0.03	1	-0.06	8	100%	0.10
Michael Finley	-0.23	0,0,0.01,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.22,-0.22,-0.18,-0.23	-0.08	-0.14	0.00	22	44%	-0.10	2	-0.13	8	62%	-0.05

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Charles Oakley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.02	0.02	-0.03	0.06	-0.00	4	50%	0.07	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Dell Curry	0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.04	-0.01	0.01	10	55%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Willis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.07,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	-0.01	-0.00	10	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Vince Carter	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,-0.04,0.01,0.07,0.08,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.02	0.01	21	55%	0.09	3	-0.08	2	50%	-0.01
Muggsy Bogues	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.02	6	50%	0.01	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Doug Christie	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.02	-0.02	0.01	4	75%	0.04	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Michael Stewart	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Tracy McGrady	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.1	-0.10	-0.04	-0.06	-0.00	14	45%	-0.03	1	-0.07	5	100%	0.03
Antonio Davis	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.09,-0.01,-0.21	-0.21	-0.00	-0.20	0.01	14	53%	-0.21	0	0.00	10	60%	-0.20

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.0	2.0	28.4	17.8	25.5	2.3	39.7	140.7
league avg	26.0	2.2	28.8	16.5	26.3	2.2	33.7	137.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +16.8%

DAL +35.5%

DAL +4.6%

TOR -8.3%

DAL +1.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	TOR	NBA	DAL	TOR	NBA
this game	15.6	15.7	15.2	108.7	104.3	101.7
season	14.8	15.5		104.2	101.8
opponent	14.9	14.8		102.1	104.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DAL	15.7	16.9	14.4	15.5	15.6
TOR	15.0	15.1	15.6	17.2	15.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dirk Nowitzki	61	62	0.66	-0.16	0.82	0.34	11	-7	18	16.4	14.1	2.31	15.9	15.4	0.50
Erick Strickland	58	57	0.63	-0.13	0.76	0.40	8	-4	12	15.1	16.5	-1.43	15.8	15.5	0.36
Greg Buckner	26	27	0.32	0.18	0.13	0.26	2	2	0	14.8	15.9	-1.05	15.4	15.8	-0.37
Michael Finley	76	74	0.27	0.23	0.03	0.33	-2	6	-8	15.7	15.0	0.72	15.4	17.0	-1.61
Dennis Rodman	66	66	0.23	0.27	-0.05	0.34	-4	8	-12	16.1	14.4	1.69	15.9	15.3	0.56
Hubert Davis	25	24	0.21	0.29	-0.08	0.00	7	-3	10	17.7	14.8	2.91	16.8	15.3	1.52
Sean Rooks	44	45	0.17	0.33	-0.17	0.02	5	-1	6	13.9	17.2	-3.28	15.6	15.9	-0.30
Cedric Ceballos	60	60	0.03	0.47	-0.45	0.26	-8	12	-20	16.5	13.9	2.55	16.4	14.4	1.99
Steve Nash	44	45	-0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.03	1	3	-2	14.0	17.0	-3.02	14.4	17.0	-2.60

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kevin Willis	42	41	0.09	-0.59	0.69	0.01	3	-7	10	16.9	14.7	2.20	16.0	15.3	0.64
Michael Stewart	13	14	0.06	-0.56	0.62	-0.09	5	-9	14	15.2	15.8	-0.55	14.9	15.7	-0.79
Vince Carter	68	68	-0.03	-0.47	0.43	-0.15	4	-8	12	16.2	14.4	1.75	16.4	13.3	3.06
Tracy McGrady	51	51	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.31	1	-5	6	15.2	16.3	-1.06	14.2	17.3	-3.15
Doug Christie	65	67	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.14	-7	3	-10	15.5	16.1	-0.63	15.7	15.4	0.27
Muggsy Bogues	49	48	-0.40	-0.10	-0.31	-0.38	-1	-3	2	15.7	15.7	0.02	15.6	15.6	0.01
Antonio Davis	77	76	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.32	-3	-1	-2	15.2	18.2	-2.98	15.6	15.7	-0.11
Dell Curry	44	43	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.20	-9	5	-14	15.7	15.7	-0.00	15.6	15.6	-0.03
Charles Oakley	51	52	-0.72	0.22	-0.93	-0.34	-13	9	-22	15.7	15.8	-0.09	15.8	15.4	0.39

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.45,0.43,0.45,0.48,0.49,0.5,0.51,0.55,0.6,0.62,0.58,0.5,0.55,0.58,0.51,0.56,0.49,0.44,0.42,0.48,0.56,0.67,0.73,0.63,0.63,0.63,0.55,0.52,0.42,0.45,0.38,0.48,0.56,0.6,0.48,0.34,0.48,0.4,0.33,0.37,0.47,0.29,0.34,0.32,0.46,0.45,0.16,0
Game		Similarity Score
DAL 112, MIL 110	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.45,0.42,0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.6,0.56,0.54,0.51,0.56,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.58,0.58,0.52,0.61,0.61,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.57,0.55,0.55,0.52,0.55,0.49,0.41,0.44,0.4,0.4,0.3,0.38,0.43,0.33,0.37,0.47,0.4,0.34,0.53,0.45,0.35,0.16,0	92.0%
SAS 91, DAL 86	0.5,0.51,0.47,0.52,0.5,0.56,0.58,0.55,0.61,0.63,0.65,0.65,0.6,0.63,0.6,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.58,0.65,0.61,0.64,0.64,0.67,0.64,0.67,0.66,0.64,0.52,0.64,0.58,0.52,0.52,0.66,0.59,0.67,0.48,0.5,0.52,0.47,0.42,0.37,0.31,0.29,0.33,0.38,0.46,0.32,0.16,0	91.1%
PHX 102, DAL 95	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.43,0.45,0.46,0.52,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.58,0.62,0.57,0.53,0.47,0.46,0.51,0.46,0.44,0.44,0.59,0.58,0.56,0.56,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.48,0.45,0.42,0.29,0.38,0.44,0.33,0.44,0.58,0.62,0.43,0.33,0.37,0.53,0.41,0.47,0.25,0.21,0.57,0.17,0	91.1%