NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	85		Excitement	7.7 [288]		MVP	Dan Majerle (MIA): +27.0%
Charlotte Hornets	80		Comeback	2.1 [376]		LVP	P.J. Brown (MIA): -22.5%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dan Majerle	0.27	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.27,0.27,0.27	0.10	0.16	0.00	4	112%	0.27	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tim Hardaway	0.21	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.28,0.39,0.35,0.35,0.29,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.21	0.15	0.07	0.00	13	77%	0.28	1	-0.07	4	75%	-0.01
Anthony Carter	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Voshon Lenard	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	2	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Jamal Mashburn	-0.03	0,0,0,0.04,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.07	-0.09	0.01	17	56%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Otis Thorpe	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.06	-0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.02	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Alonzo Mourning	-0.12	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12	-0.07	-0.08	-0.02	18	46%	-0.11	1	-0.01	10	70%	-0.01
Clar. Weatherspoon	-0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.11	-0.06	-0.01	3	29%	-0.14	1	-0.02	8	50%	-0.08
P.J. Brown	-0.23	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.23	-0.16	-0.10	-0.03	13	23%	-0.13	3	-0.09	0	0%	0.00

Charlotte Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dale Ellis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	1	150%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Elden Campbell	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.03	0.01	-0.00	5	75%	0.05	1	-0.01	2	50%	-0.04
Anthony Mason	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.02	0.04	-0.02	9	48%	0.03	0	0.00	7	86%	0.01
Derrick Coleman	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,-0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.03	0.03	-0.02	14	50%	0.06	2	-0.04	4	75%	-0.01
Baron Davis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	-0.00	-0.00	2	87%	0.05	2	-0.04	4	100%	0.02
Chucky Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.04	-0.03	-0.00	5	20%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brad Miller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.03	-0.05	0.00	3	33%	-0.05	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
David Wesley	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.2	-0.20	-0.02	-0.19	-0.01	12	42%	-0.20	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Eddie Jones	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.09,0.15,0.15,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.1,-0.2,-0.2	-0.20	-0.03	-0.19	-0.02	18	49%	-0.04	3	-0.16	1	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.1	2.8	29.0	20.8	29.2	2.7	42.0	152.5
league avg	26.0	2.2	28.8	16.5	26.3	2.2	33.7	137.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +33.2%

CHH -9.8%

MIA +6.0%

MIA +15.6%

MIA +5.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	CHH	NBA	MIA	CHH	NBA
this game	16.8	17.5	15.2	101.2	95.2	101.7
season	15.7	14.9		101.2	101.5
opponent	15.1	15.9		99.2	98.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	13.5	20.9	17.6	16.1	16.8
CHH	17.2	16.1	19.3	17.4	17.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tim Hardaway	71	72	0.76	-0.26	1.03	0.32	15	-10	25	16.5	18.4	-1.91	17.2	19.5	-2.32
Dan Majerle	54	55	0.74	-0.24	0.98	0.12	21	-16	37	16.0	18.1	-2.11	18.2	16.3	1.89
P.J. Brown	56	58	0.70	-0.20	0.90	0.20	17	-12	29	16.2	18.0	-1.79	18.2	16.1	2.08
Alonzo Mourning	70	69	0.48	0.02	0.46	0.22	9	-4	13	16.8	16.9	-0.10	17.9	15.8	2.08
Jamal Mashburn	77	77	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.35	2	3	-1	16.8	17.0	-0.25	17.3	19.6	-2.25
Clar. Weatherspoon	31	30	0.05	0.45	-0.39	0.29	-8	13	-21	18.0	16.1	1.89	17.0	17.8	-0.74
Voshon Lenard	37	36	-0.15	0.65	-0.80	0.23	-13	18	-31	17.9	15.9	2.05	16.9	18.0	-1.04
Otis Thorpe	10	10	-0.21	0.71	-0.92	0.02	-8	13	-21	17.0	16.7	0.26	14.4	17.9	-3.53
Anthony Carter	14	13	-0.29	0.79	-1.08	0.00	-10	15	-25	17.9	16.5	1.39	18.0	17.4	0.58

Charlotte Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Brad Miller	28	28	0.04	-0.54	0.58	-0.08	4	-9	13	19.2	16.7	2.55	18.4	16.0	2.43
Chucky Brown	24	25	0.02	-0.52	0.54	-0.04	2	-7	9	19.6	16.7	2.90	18.2	16.2	2.03
Baron Davis	21	22	-0.09	-0.41	0.33	-0.09	0	-5	5	19.8	16.8	3.00	18.4	16.2	2.15
Dale Ellis	11	12	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.16	-1	-4	3	16.5	17.7	-1.22	17.1	16.7	0.36
Elden Campbell	63	62	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.18	-6	1	-7	17.1	18.7	-1.60	16.7	16.9	-0.18
David Wesley	63	62	-0.41	-0.09	-0.33	-0.27	-5	0	-5	16.8	19.8	-3.00	16.2	18.4	-2.15
Derrick Coleman	60	60	-0.49	-0.01	-0.49	-0.35	-5	0	-5	17.2	18.2	-0.92	16.4	17.6	-1.19
Eddie Jones	75	74	-0.50	-0.00	-0.50	-0.29	-7	2	-9	17.2	20.0	-2.79	16.3	20.2	-3.89
Anthony Mason	75	75	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	-0.31	-7	2	-9	17.2	20.0	-2.79	16.4	19.8	-3.36

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.43,0.36,0.33,0.26,0.28,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.32,0.34,0.34,0.36,0.34,0.36,0.42,0.42,0.44,0.44,0.36,0.33,0.41,0.44,0.5,0.46,0.49,0.39,0.39,0.42,0.48,0.41,0.38,0.37,0.33,0.36,0.5,0.52,0.52,0.67,0.63,0.41,0.34,0.48,0.25,0.45,0.22,0.23,0
Game		Similarity Score
ORL 110, CHH 106	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.43,0.36,0.32,0.37,0.36,0.31,0.24,0.19,0.2,0.3,0.32,0.38,0.45,0.51,0.42,0.48,0.41,0.38,0.44,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.41,0.31,0.36,0.42,0.42,0.48,0.52,0.38,0.41,0.48,0.36,0.42,0.48,0.47,0.67,0.63,0.47,0.59,0.47,0.47,0.28,0.09,0.04,0	91.0%
HOU 98, NJN 93	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.42,0.43,0.42,0.34,0.36,0.37,0.3,0.34,0.36,0.35,0.32,0.42,0.45,0.4,0.4,0.3,0.29,0.34,0.31,0.39,0.33,0.33,0.34,0.34,0.36,0.33,0.33,0.35,0.35,0.35,0.29,0.4,0.44,0.46,0.48,0.47,0.58,0.53,0.47,0.24,0.39,0.38,0.28,0.15,0.47,0	90.9%
ATL 105, DAL 101	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.42,0.38,0.33,0.37,0.38,0.37,0.39,0.33,0.27,0.3,0.34,0.3,0.29,0.25,0.33,0.26,0.28,0.36,0.31,0.36,0.33,0.44,0.5,0.43,0.37,0.42,0.39,0.42,0.48,0.45,0.31,0.34,0.3,0.28,0.46,0.57,0.57,0.62,0.58,0.64,0.71,0.46,0.45,0.45,0.15,0.13,0	90.6%