NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	98		Excitement	5.7 [677]		MVP	Alvin Williams (TOR): +10.4%
Milwaukee Bucks	95		Comeback	1.6 [314]		LVP	Ray Allen (MIL): -20.9%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Alvin Williams	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.12,0.11,0.1,0.1	0.06	0.03	-0.01	6	71%	0.10	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Dell Curry	0.09	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09	0.07	0.00	-0.01	13	62%	0.10	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Muggsy Bogues	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05	0.02	0.03	0.00	2	87%	0.08	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.02
John Thomas	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Antonio Davis	0.02	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.00	0.02	-0.00	11	55%	0.06	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Vince Carter	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.06	0.03	-0.02	23	51%	0.04	3	-0.06	13	77%	0.00
Kevin Willis	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.09	0.00	-0.04	5	20%	-0.03	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Charles Oakley	-0.07	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07	-0.07	-0.03	-0.03	4	25%	-0.00	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Tracy McGrady	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.11	0.00	-0.03	13	34%	-0.06	1	-0.02	6	50%	-0.03
Doug Christie	-0.10	0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1	-0.11	-0.01	-0.01	10	29%	-0.06	2	-0.05	1	0%	-0.01

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Glenn Robinson	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.06	0.06	0.12	-0.03	0.03	19	66%	0.09	1	-0.03	6	100%	0.03
Ervin Johnson	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.01	0.02	-0.02	4	50%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Vinny Del Negro	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Sam Cassell	0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02	-0.02	0.01	-0.01	0.02	15	68%	0.10	5	-0.12	7	100%	0.03
Danny Manning	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	4	50%	0.01	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Scott Williams	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.15	-0.00	-0.03	11	13%	-0.11	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Tim Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.18,-0.2,-0.21	-0.21	-0.15	-0.05	0.01	13	43%	-0.11	4	-0.10	11	73%	-0.02
Ray Allen	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.15,-0.15,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.14,-0.14,-0.18,-0.18,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21	-0.21	-0.20	-0.04	-0.03	19	29%	-0.16	3	-0.05	4	50%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.2	1.7	28.6	15.0	25.0	0.8	39.7	133.9
league avg	26.0	2.2	28.8	16.5	26.3	2.2	33.7	137.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

TOR +44.8%

MIL -1.1%

MIL -2.1%

TOR +9.3%

MIL -1.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	MIL	NBA	TOR	MIL	NBA
this game	14.9	13.9	15.2	98.0	95.0	101.7
season	15.5	14.9		101.8	105.5
opponent	15.4	14.9		105.1	102.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
TOR	13.4	15.7	16.1	14.4	14.9
MIL	17.1	14.9	12.7	11.4	13.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Vince Carter	86	87	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.35	4	-1	5	14.3	18.5	-4.17	13.6	15.6	-1.98
Tracy McGrady	56	56	0.33	0.17	0.17	0.19	5	-2	7	15.8	13.8	1.99	13.9	13.9	-0.03
Muggsy Bogues	42	43	0.29	0.21	0.09	0.15	5	-2	7	14.0	15.6	-1.53	12.4	15.0	-2.54
Charles Oakley	63	61	0.28	0.22	0.05	0.28	0	3	-3	15.3	14.2	1.10	14.3	13.2	1.08
Alvin Williams	24	23	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.17	3	0	3	16.8	14.3	2.53	13.4	14.0	-0.59
Doug Christie	62	63	0.25	0.25	-0.01	0.39	-5	8	-13	14.2	16.1	-1.89	15.0	12.0	3.00
Antonio Davis	70	70	0.21	0.29	-0.09	0.38	-6	9	-15	14.9	15.0	-0.18	13.7	14.2	-0.49
Kevin Willis	35	34	0.20	0.30	-0.10	0.11	3	0	3	15.7	14.5	1.15	13.7	14.0	-0.28
Dell Curry	54	53	0.12	0.38	-0.27	0.06	2	1	1	14.7	15.2	-0.45	13.8	14.0	-0.29
John Thomas	8	10	0.10	0.40	-0.31	-0.02	4	-1	5	14.9	14.9	-0.04	16.3	13.6	2.68

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Danny Manning	20	21	-0.13	-0.37	0.25	0.02	-5	2	-7	15.5	13.5	2.07	15.5	14.8	0.72
Scott Williams	49	47	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	0.08	-11	8	-19	15.7	12.2	3.54	14.9	14.9	0.01
Ervin Johnson	73	75	-0.29	-0.21	-0.09	-0.26	-1	-2	1	14.0	13.6	0.41	15.2	14.2	1.00
Vinny Del Negro	38	37	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.10	-7	4	-11	13.4	14.2	-0.84	14.4	15.2	-0.80
Tim Thomas	67	67	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.48	5	-8	13	12.4	16.9	-4.51	14.7	15.2	-0.50
Glenn Robinson	80	81	-0.35	-0.15	-0.21	-0.47	4	-7	11	14.0	13.2	0.80	15.1	13.9	1.25
Sam Cassell	84	84	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.43	1	-4	5	13.9	13.9	0.02	15.1	14.0	1.08
Ray Allen	89	88	-0.45	-0.05	-0.39	-0.42	-1	-2	1	13.6	16.0	-2.37	14.5	17.8	-3.32

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.57,0.57,0.6,0.55,0.55,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.38,0.42,0.38,0.4,0.33,0.37,0.34,0.39,0.34,0.28,0.2,0.14,0.09,0.11,0.13,0.06,0.07,0.05,0.09,0.08,0.11,0.14,0.15,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.15,0.17,0.07,0.08,0.1,0.05,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIA 87, UTA 80	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.53,0.58,0.6,0.61,0.57,0.55,0.53,0.56,0.5,0.44,0.51,0.42,0.43,0.35,0.37,0.41,0.41,0.39,0.28,0.18,0.18,0.16,0.12,0.11,0.15,0.14,0.13,0.09,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.08,0.03,0.07,0.14,0.11,0.07,0.11,0.12,0.06,0.13,0.15,0.03,0.02,0	94.9%
UTA 93, SAC 86	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.5,0.54,0.5,0.52,0.51,0.51,0.43,0.38,0.51,0.48,0.44,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.31,0.39,0.34,0.24,0.21,0.19,0.2,0.12,0.11,0.18,0.13,0.07,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.08,0.04,0.07,0.08,0.13,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.17,0.16,0.17,0.1,0.07,0.01,0.01,0	94.4%
TOR 107, ORL 85	0.5,0.49,0.56,0.59,0.57,0.58,0.53,0.45,0.43,0.45,0.47,0.49,0.42,0.46,0.42,0.45,0.49,0.42,0.37,0.39,0.36,0.34,0.28,0.22,0.16,0.1,0.08,0.1,0.11,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.08,0.13,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	94.2%