NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	84		Excitement	4.6 [871]		MVP	Reggie Miller (IND): +16.6%
Indiana Pacers	94		Comeback	1.1 [994]		LVP	Jamal Mashburn (MIA): -17.5%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Otis Thorpe	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	-0.01	4	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
P.J. Brown	0.01	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	-0.01	-0.00	11	55%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Clar. Weatherspoon	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	0.01	1	100%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Mark Strickland	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	3	50%	-0.02	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Alonzo Mourning	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.01	-0.03	0.00	18	55%	0.01	1	-0.03	8	75%	-0.00
Anthony Carter	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.01	-0.01	0.04	6	50%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Voshon Lenard	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.01	6	17%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tim Hardaway	-0.09	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.09,-0.08,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.13	-0.00	-0.05	15	40%	-0.02	4	-0.07	5	80%	-0.00
Jamal Mashburn	-0.17	0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.03,-0.09,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.1,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.11,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.18	-0.17	-0.04	-0.04	21	34%	-0.05	4	-0.12	2	100%	0.00

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Reggie Miller	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.17,0.17,0.21,0.21,0.18,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.17,0.16,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.11	0.05	-0.01	22	59%	0.17	0	0.00	7	86%	0.01
Rik Smits	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.11	0.02	0.01	11	73%	0.12	0	0.00	8	100%	0.04
Mark Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.03	-0.00	0.01	5	64%	0.02	0	0.00	4	100%	0.01
Travis Best	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.03	5	42%	0.02	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Chris Mullin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jalen Rose	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	-0.00	-0.02	13	43%	-0.01	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.02
Sam Perkins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.10	0.01	-0.07	9	30%	0.01	2	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Dale Davis	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.02	-0.00	6	50%	0.01	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Austin Croshere	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.07	-0.02	-0.02	6	29%	-0.05	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.2	3.6	30.7	18.0	24.3	3.3	29.6	136.6
league avg	26.0	2.2	28.8	16.5	26.3	2.2	33.7	137.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

IND +33.8%

IND +14.5%

MIA -17.3%

IND +17.4%

IND +1.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	IND	NBA	MIA	IND	NBA
this game	15.7	18.0	15.2	97.7	110.6	101.7
season	15.7	15.4		101.2	106.5
opponent	15.1	15.9		101.8	98.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	15.8	16.9	14.5	15.8	15.7
IND	14.9	19.1	18.2	20.1	18.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Clar. Weatherspoon	11	11	0.04	-0.54	0.58	-0.08	4	-14	18	16.7	15.6	1.15	19.9	17.7	2.22
Mark Strickland	35	34	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	-0.03	0	-10	10	16.0	15.5	0.42	17.5	18.3	-0.75
P.J. Brown	57	57	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.06	-5	-5	0	15.3	16.6	-1.25	18.5	16.9	1.67
Anthony Carter	33	34	-0.30	-0.20	-0.09	-0.24	-2	-8	6	15.2	16.0	-0.83	19.0	17.3	1.75
Otis Thorpe	19	18	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.01	-10	0	-10	18.8	14.9	3.94	16.2	18.4	-2.23
Tim Hardaway	71	69	-0.31	-0.19	-0.13	-0.20	-4	-6	2	15.1	18.5	-3.41	17.6	19.7	-2.18
Voshon Lenard	55	57	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.23	-5	-5	0	15.8	15.6	0.12	18.8	16.4	2.41
Jamal Mashburn	70	68	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.05	-15	5	-20	15.7	15.6	0.12	17.6	19.5	-1.87
Alonzo Mourning	79	77	-0.53	0.03	-0.55	-0.15	-13	3	-16	15.7	15.6	0.16	17.5	22.1	-4.58

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jalen Rose	81	82	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.10	15	-5	20	18.1	16.2	1.81	15.8	14.5	1.28
Reggie Miller	81	83	0.53	-0.03	0.55	0.20	11	-1	12	17.8	21.7	-3.96	15.8	12.7	3.16
Mark Jackson	51	51	0.29	0.21	0.09	-0.00	10	0	10	16.6	20.0	-3.32	15.6	15.9	-0.33
Dale Davis	51	51	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.02	9	1	8	18.0	17.9	0.11	16.0	15.3	0.78
Rik Smits	51	51	0.28	0.22	0.05	0.07	7	3	4	16.8	19.8	-3.03	16.1	15.2	0.88
Sam Perkins	42	43	0.25	0.25	0.00	0.16	3	7	-4	18.8	17.2	1.60	15.1	16.3	-1.21
Travis Best	34	35	0.21	0.29	-0.09	0.21	0	10	-10	20.0	16.6	3.32	15.9	15.6	0.33
Austin Croshere	26	27	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.16	1	9	-8	19.0	17.5	1.42	15.4	15.9	-0.46
Chris Mullin	8	7	-0.06	0.56	-0.63	0.11	-6	16	-22	19.0	17.9	1.13	13.7	15.9	-2.18

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.53,0.56,0.58,0.62,0.64,0.67,0.69,0.69,0.79,0.82,0.84,0.78,0.79,0.75,0.78,0.82,0.79,0.84,0.89,0.83,0.78,0.8,0.74,0.69,0.64,0.76,0.73,0.79,0.74,0.78,0.76,0.78,0.79,0.81,0.81,0.75,0.86,0.92,0.97,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
OKC 79, LAL 87	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.55,0.54,0.56,0.58,0.55,0.63,0.6,0.67,0.69,0.75,0.77,0.8,0.72,0.71,0.75,0.81,0.86,0.83,0.82,0.82,0.83,0.75,0.73,0.71,0.74,0.75,0.78,0.83,0.82,0.81,0.84,0.83,0.8,0.79,0.81,0.82,0.85,0.91,0.95,0.9,0.94,0.97,0.93,0.93,0.98,1,1	95.1%
MIN 100, IND 110	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.58,0.52,0.6,0.62,0.66,0.63,0.67,0.64,0.71,0.74,0.72,0.7,0.75,0.75,0.78,0.76,0.79,0.84,0.87,0.9,0.89,0.86,0.84,0.79,0.78,0.83,0.76,0.71,0.77,0.87,0.79,0.77,0.68,0.78,0.81,0.75,0.86,0.93,0.96,1,1,0.98,1,0.98,1,1	94.5%
CHI 92, IND 104	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.54,0.6,0.66,0.66,0.71,0.72,0.69,0.7,0.74,0.74,0.75,0.77,0.77,0.73,0.84,0.84,0.85,0.82,0.87,0.84,0.75,0.81,0.82,0.75,0.73,0.76,0.8,0.85,0.84,0.76,0.71,0.72,0.84,0.93,0.88,0.89,0.93,0.94,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	94.5%