NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Houston Rockets	98		Excitement	5.4 [714]		MVP	George McCloud (DEN): +10.6%
Denver Nuggets	104		Comeback	1.7 [829]		LVP	Steve Francis (HOU): -18.8%

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Matt Bullard	0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03	0.05	-0.01	0.01	18	50%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Hakeem Olajuwon	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	-0.00	4	58%	0.01	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.01
Kelvin Cato	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01	0.02	-0.00	0.02	3	70%	-0.01	0	0.00	4	25%	-0.04
Walt Williams	-0.01	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.03	-0.01	0.04	7	57%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Miller	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	3	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bryce Drew	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Cuttino Mobley	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.08	-0.02	-0.01	10	43%	-0.04	3	-0.06	3	33%	-0.04
Shandon Anderson	-0.10	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.07	-0.02	0.01	11	50%	-0.00	4	-0.10	2	100%	0.01
Kenny Thomas	-0.12	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.11	-0.01	0.00	6	44%	-0.04	4	-0.08	4	75%	-0.01
Steve Francis	-0.19	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.14,-0.16,-0.12,-0.07,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.18,-0.18,-0.19,-0.19	-0.14	-0.05	-0.00	25	47%	-0.06	6	-0.13	8	100%	0.02

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
George McCloud	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.10	0.01	0.00	9	74%	0.11	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.01
Antonio McDyess	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.05	0.02	-0.03	11	69%	0.14	2	-0.04	4	50%	-0.01
Ron Mercer	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.02	0.01	-0.02	18	55%	0.06	1	-0.01	8	87%	0.01
Raef LaFrentz	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.00	-0.01	13	54%	0.05	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Nick Van Exel	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.05,0.05,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	15	57%	0.08	3	-0.08	7	86%	0.02
Popeye Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	0.01	-0.00	5	40%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bryant Stith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Herren	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.07	-0.00	-0.02	2	0%	-0.03	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Keon Clark	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07	-0.07	-0.11	-0.00	-0.04	5	20%	-0.01	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
James Posey	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.06	-0.02	-0.00	6	43%	-0.01	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.2	2.4	25.4	16.4	27.4	2.3	28.7	124.7
league avg	26.0	2.2	28.8	16.5	26.3	2.2	33.7	137.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +44.6%

DEN +9.2%

HOU -13.8%

DEN +9.8%

DEN +0.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	HOU	DEN	NBA	HOU	DEN	NBA
this game	14.2	14.4	15.2	98.0	103.0	101.7
season	15.4	14.8		102.4	101.5
opponent	15.0	14.6		103.7	103.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
HOU	14.7	16.1	13.7	12.5	14.2
DEN	12.5	15.9	14.0	15.7	14.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Bryce Drew	17	17	0.04	-0.54	0.59	-0.04	3	-9	12	15.1	14.0	1.09	16.9	13.9	3.00
Kelvin Cato	31	31	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	-0.25	5	-11	16	12.9	14.8	-1.89	16.5	13.5	3.03
Hakeem Olajuwon	31	33	-0.16	-0.34	0.19	-0.10	-2	-4	2	13.6	14.5	-0.82	14.2	14.6	-0.35
Anthony Miller	19	19	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.01	-5	-1	-4	15.7	13.9	1.88	13.6	14.6	-1.07
Walt Williams	62	61	-0.25	-0.25	-0.00	-0.25	0	-6	6	13.7	15.1	-1.44	14.0	15.1	-1.08
Matt Bullard	65	65	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.23	-1	-5	4	14.3	14.0	0.28	14.8	13.7	1.12
Shandon Anderson	77	78	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.15	-5	-1	-4	14.6	12.9	1.68	14.4	14.7	-0.27
Kenny Thomas	54	54	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.06	-9	3	-12	14.6	13.7	0.91	13.2	15.9	-2.67
Cuttino Mobley	61	63	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.24	-7	1	-8	14.3	14.1	0.18	14.9	13.6	1.30
Steve Francis	83	84	-0.54	0.04	-0.59	-0.28	-9	3	-12	14.0	15.1	-1.09	13.9	16.9	-3.00

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ron Mercer	90	89	0.71	-0.21	0.91	0.27	15	-9	24	13.8	20.1	-6.34	14.3	13.4	0.95
Raef LaFrentz	68	68	0.54	-0.04	0.59	0.25	10	-4	14	14.2	15.0	-0.87	14.6	13.3	1.32
George McCloud	69	68	0.54	-0.04	0.57	0.19	12	-6	18	14.5	14.3	0.15	14.5	13.5	1.04
Nick Van Exel	73	74	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.22	7	-1	8	13.8	16.1	-2.30	14.3	14.0	0.23
Antonio McDyess	51	54	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.09	11	-5	16	13.5	15.4	-1.93	15.6	12.5	3.09
Chris Herren	28	26	0.08	0.42	-0.34	0.11	-1	7	-8	16.1	13.8	2.30	14.0	14.3	-0.23
Keon Clark	54	51	0.05	0.45	-0.40	0.26	-7	13	-20	15.4	13.3	2.15	12.5	16.0	-3.55
Popeye Jones	29	27	-0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.06	-2	8	-10	14.9	14.2	0.68	13.6	14.4	-0.85
James Posey	32	32	-0.04	0.54	-0.57	0.14	-6	12	-18	14.3	14.5	-0.15	13.5	14.5	-1.04
Bryant Stith	11	11	-0.21	0.71	-0.91	0.06	-9	15	-24	20.1	13.8	6.34	13.4	14.3	-0.95

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.5,0.54,0.49,0.42,0.42,0.43,0.49,0.53,0.6,0.6,0.56,0.58,0.51,0.51,0.44,0.37,0.46,0.44,0.49,0.54,0.61,0.67,0.69,0.72,0.7,0.74,0.73,0.77,0.81,0.72,0.76,0.9,0.82,0.81,0.87,0.9,0.93,0.97,0.92,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
VAN 100, GSW 112	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.49,0.5,0.5,0.42,0.45,0.43,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.6,0.63,0.56,0.56,0.51,0.53,0.56,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.58,0.56,0.59,0.51,0.63,0.66,0.67,0.73,0.73,0.74,0.78,0.75,0.83,0.89,0.85,0.87,0.92,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1	94.8%
BOS 99, NYK 112	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.53,0.52,0.49,0.51,0.45,0.47,0.53,0.62,0.52,0.53,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.44,0.48,0.46,0.48,0.56,0.54,0.61,0.78,0.78,0.69,0.61,0.64,0.73,0.68,0.69,0.75,0.82,0.87,0.85,0.87,0.78,0.85,0.96,0.93,0.92,0.91,0.95,0.97,1,1,1,1	94.8%
CHA 84, BOS 94	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.53,0.53,0.52,0.57,0.55,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.54,0.63,0.6,0.56,0.47,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.52,0.51,0.54,0.56,0.59,0.7,0.66,0.66,0.69,0.67,0.76,0.77,0.75,0.87,0.85,0.86,0.82,0.78,0.78,0.88,0.93,0.97,0.99,1,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1	94.6%