NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Washington Wizards	105		Excitement	4.2 [964]		MVP	Doug Christie (TOR): +16.7%
Toronto Raptors	120		Comeback	1.1 [1042]		LVP	Richard Hamilton (WAS): -8.8%

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Juwan Howard	0.06	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.11	-0.01	0.04	15	73%	0.09	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Aaron Williams	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	8	74%	0.03	3	-0.01	7	71%	-0.00
Lorenzo Williams	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Laron Profit	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.07	0.00	-0.07	1	0%	-0.00	1	0.00	2	0%	-0.00
Reggie Jordan	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	2	0%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ike Austin	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rod Strickland	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.02	-0.01	0.03	9	62%	-0.01	1	-0.01	6	50%	-0.04
Chris Whitney	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	0.03	6	50%	-0.04	0	0.00	4	100%	0.01
Tracy Murray	-0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	0.01	-0.01	0.03	7	56%	-0.02	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Jahidi White	-0.06	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.02	-0.02	0.02	9	68%	0.06	4	-0.12	7	71%	-0.01
Richard Hamilton	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.06,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.08	-0.01	-0.01	13	47%	-0.02	3	-0.07	6	83%	-0.01

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Doug Christie	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.15	0.02	0.01	10	95%	0.20	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
John Thomas	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.06	0.00	0.01	5	80%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dell Curry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.05	0.00	-0.00	7	62%	0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Kevin Willis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.03	-0.00	-0.04	8	44%	0.02	1	-0.00	2	100%	0.01
Muggsy Bogues	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.06	0.00	0.05	5	79%	0.01	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Michael Stewart	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.03	1	40%	0.01	0	0.00	3	0%	-0.01
Antonio Lang	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Antonio Davis	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	0.00	4	42%	-0.03	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Tracy McGrady	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.05	-0.01	-0.03	14	54%	0.03	3	-0.06	9	67%	0.00
Vince Carter	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	22	52%	0.00	4	-0.05	6	83%	0.02
Charles Oakley	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.00	0.01	7	56%	0.03	3	-0.08	2	0%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.4	2.6	27.2	17.3	27.5	2.4	36.7	136.2
league avg	26.0	2.2	28.8	16.5	26.3	2.2	33.7	137.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

TOR +25.7%

TOR +4.8%

TOR +15.6%

TOR +3.9%

TOR +0.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	WAS	TOR	NBA	WAS	TOR	NBA
this game	14.4	15.2	15.2	106.1	125.0	101.7
season	15.5	15.5		101.1	101.8
opponent	14.9	14.8		102.1	104.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
WAS	15.8	18.7	14.0	10.0	14.4
TOR	15.5	15.6	13.1	16.6	15.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Lorenzo Williams	16	16	0.02	-0.52	0.53	-0.13	5	-20	25	9.7	15.3	-5.52	14.4	15.3	-0.96
Laron Profit	11	11	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.09	3	-18	21	6.9	15.3	-8.40	15.3	15.2	0.11
Reggie Jordan	15	14	-0.10	-0.40	0.29	0.25	-12	-3	-9	15.5	14.2	1.37	13.3	15.5	-2.21
Aaron Williams	54	54	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.12	-1	-14	13	13.0	16.0	-2.94	15.9	14.3	1.58
Ike Austin	18	16	-0.22	-0.28	0.05	0.19	-14	-1	-13	17.0	13.8	3.21	13.0	15.6	-2.61
Chris Whitney	28	29	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.06	-6	-9	3	15.0	14.1	0.82	15.0	15.3	-0.25
Rod Strickland	68	65	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.14	-4	-11	7	14.5	14.2	0.31	15.4	14.7	0.69
Jahidi White	65	64	-0.29	-0.21	-0.09	-0.12	-6	-9	3	14.8	13.6	1.20	15.9	13.7	2.23
Juwan Howard	74	72	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.16	-7	-8	1	15.2	11.9	3.34	15.2	15.1	0.07
Richard Hamilton	72	68	-0.39	-0.11	-0.27	-0.12	-9	-6	-3	14.3	14.6	-0.30	14.9	15.9	-1.06
Tracy Murray	74	71	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	0.21	-24	9	-33	15.1	12.1	3.07	15.2	15.2	-0.09

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Vince Carter	78	79	0.52	-0.02	0.53	0.08	15	0	15	14.7	17.4	-2.79	14.9	12.4	2.41
Michael Stewart	28	27	0.44	0.06	0.38	-0.06	17	-2	19	14.0	15.7	-1.66	12.8	15.0	-2.19
Doug Christie	63	65	0.34	0.16	0.17	0.22	4	11	-7	14.7	16.0	-1.25	14.2	14.6	-0.42
Charles Oakley	62	65	0.27	0.23	0.05	0.07	7	8	-1	15.5	14.5	1.05	14.6	14.0	0.52
Dell Curry	40	41	0.25	0.25	-0.01	0.04	7	8	-1	15.3	15.1	0.30	13.7	14.8	-1.10
Tracy McGrady	55	55	0.21	0.29	-0.09	0.06	5	10	-5	15.9	14.2	1.63	14.7	14.0	0.71
Kevin Willis	40	41	0.20	0.30	-0.10	0.08	4	11	-7	16.0	14.6	1.37	15.2	13.8	1.49
Muggsy Bogues	38	40	0.16	0.34	-0.17	-0.07	8	7	1	15.9	14.7	1.27	13.9	14.7	-0.84
Antonio Davis	22	24	0.07	0.43	-0.36	-0.02	3	12	-9	15.5	15.1	0.36	15.8	13.9	1.93
John Thomas	48	52	0.05	0.45	-0.41	-0.01	2	13	-11	14.5	15.9	-1.44	14.5	14.2	0.31
Antonio Lang	6	6	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.09	3	12	-9	15.2	15.2	-0.01	6.5	14.9	-8.38

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.57,0.53,0.53,0.57,0.49,0.51,0.57,0.58,0.64,0.66,0.65,0.69,0.68,0.71,0.61,0.67,0.7,0.75,0.7,0.66,0.55,0.52,0.58,0.58,0.74,0.83,0.91,0.91,0.91,0.96,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
PHX 98, LAC 109	0.5,0.51,0.53,0.54,0.51,0.54,0.6,0.53,0.61,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.58,0.52,0.58,0.62,0.62,0.69,0.74,0.7,0.75,0.66,0.67,0.69,0.73,0.67,0.65,0.69,0.64,0.64,0.7,0.71,0.8,0.88,0.94,0.96,0.97,0.94,0.95,0.92,0.95,0.94,0.94,0.96,0.98,0.99,0.97,0.99,0.98,1	95.2%
SAC 92, SEA 104	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.53,0.59,0.53,0.55,0.58,0.57,0.51,0.47,0.56,0.6,0.56,0.57,0.61,0.66,0.67,0.68,0.71,0.66,0.61,0.7,0.67,0.67,0.58,0.58,0.64,0.7,0.78,0.82,0.86,0.86,0.83,0.86,0.93,0.95,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.97,0.96,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.8%
BKN 86, ATL 114	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.57,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.57,0.51,0.58,0.62,0.6,0.64,0.73,0.71,0.69,0.78,0.75,0.73,0.73,0.74,0.73,0.73,0.7,0.59,0.48,0.52,0.55,0.67,0.68,0.71,0.81,0.87,0.84,0.93,0.97,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.7%