NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	99		Excitement	8.0 [243]		MVP	Greg Buckner (DAL): +17.2%
Detroit Pistons	91		Comeback	5.2 [150]		LVP	Lindsey Hunter (DET): -18.7%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Greg Buckner	0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.11,0.17,0.17	-0.03	0.16	-0.04	4	57%	0.20	1	-0.03	6	33%	-0.01
Hubert Davis	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.01	0.05	-0.00	3	50%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Erick Strickland	0.05	0,0,0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.08	-0.02	0.01	10	73%	0.07	1	-0.01	2	50%	-0.02
Cedric Ceballos	0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.04,0.04,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.1,-0.1,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	0.02	18	52%	0.03	1	-0.02	6	83%	-0.00
Shawn Bradley	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.01	-0.01	11	54%	0.07	2	-0.08	4	100%	0.04
Michael Finley	-0.01	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.03,0.06,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.05	-0.02	-0.05	17	47%	-0.02	2	0.01	4	50%	-0.03
Sean Rooks	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Damon Jones	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	2	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dirk Nowitzki	-0.08	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.18,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.11	0.02	-0.01	14	44%	0.04	4	-0.12	4	75%	0.00
Steve Nash	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11	-0.06	-0.05	0.00	1	100%	0.03	4	-0.14	2	100%	0.00

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jerry Stackhouse	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.01,0.05,0.04,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.02	0.03	-0.03	30	52%	0.13	3	-0.09	9	78%	-0.01
Jud Buechler	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0,0,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.05	-0.00	0.02	9	60%	0.03	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.05
Eric Montross	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jerome Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.06	0.05	0.00	8	50%	0.06	2	-0.06	6	50%	-0.04
John Crotty	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	9	45%	0.03	1	-0.07	4	75%	0.00
Terry Mills	0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.13	-0.02	-0.02	4	0%	-0.04	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Christian Laettner	0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.11	-0.07	-0.02	11	42%	-0.05	4	-0.11	2	100%	0.01
Michael Curry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.03,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19	-0.19	-0.08	-0.11	-0.00	7	29%	-0.12	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Lindsey Hunter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.18,-0.18,-0.19	-0.19	-0.02	-0.16	0.00	11	36%	-0.19	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.8	2.4	30.6	16.7	27.3	2.3	36.7	138.8
league avg	26.0	2.2	28.8	16.5	26.3	2.2	33.7	137.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +50.1%

DAL +1.6%

DET -5.3%

DAL +12.9%

DET -9.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	DET	NBA	DAL	DET	NBA
this game	14.3	14.7	15.2	100.0	91.9	101.7
season	14.8	14.1		104.2	104.2
opponent	15.3	14.8		103.0	104.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DAL	12.3	15.6	15.8	13.5	14.3
DET	16.5	12.6	13.0	17.1	14.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Cedric Ceballos	86	86	0.74	-0.24	0.98	0.36	13	-5	18	14.1	16.1	-2.00	15.0	13.4	1.57
Michael Finley	90	89	0.56	-0.06	0.62	0.15	14	-6	20	14.4	13.4	0.99	14.8	14.6	0.16
Erick Strickland	60	61	0.55	-0.05	0.61	0.29	9	-1	10	14.1	14.8	-0.70	15.1	14.2	0.96
Shawn Bradley	49	50	0.38	0.12	0.27	0.35	1	7	-6	15.9	12.8	3.04	15.1	14.3	0.79
Greg Buckner	43	40	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.33	1	7	-6	13.6	14.9	-1.26	13.3	15.7	-2.39
Steve Nash	47	47	0.31	0.19	0.11	-0.02	11	-3	14	14.0	14.7	-0.69	14.5	15.0	-0.45
Dirk Nowitzki	66	69	-0.04	0.54	-0.58	-0.04	0	8	-8	14.3	14.4	-0.12	15.4	13.3	2.08
Sean Rooks	8	7	-0.09	0.59	-0.68	-0.03	-2	10	-12	16.0	14.2	1.80	10.7	15.1	-4.34
Hubert Davis	30	30	-0.12	0.61	-0.73	-0.06	-2	10	-12	13.4	14.8	-1.40	13.8	15.2	-1.36
Damon Jones	16	16	-0.16	0.66	-0.82	-0.01	-5	13	-18	15.7	14.1	1.68	16.0	14.5	1.49

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Eric Montross	6	6	0.14	-0.64	0.78	-0.07	7	-15	22	8.7	15.1	-6.47	16.5	14.2	2.30
Jud Buechler	69	70	-0.07	-0.42	0.35	-0.02	-2	-6	4	14.9	14.4	0.45	13.4	16.6	-3.17
Jerome Williams	53	50	-0.17	-0.33	0.17	-0.11	-2	-6	4	15.4	14.0	1.32	16.0	12.7	3.31
Terry Mills	37	37	-0.28	-0.22	-0.05	0.02	-10	2	-12	14.6	14.8	-0.20	13.4	14.9	-1.45
Christian Laettner	52	55	-0.32	-0.18	-0.15	-0.12	-7	-1	-6	14.3	15.3	-1.01	13.9	14.9	-1.06
Lindsey Hunter	78	77	-0.42	-0.08	-0.33	-0.21	-7	-1	-6	14.9	14.0	0.95	14.4	14.2	0.15
John Crotty	52	51	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.26	-6	-2	-4	14.3	15.2	-0.93	14.6	14.1	0.50
Michael Curry	55	54	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.23	-8	0	-8	15.5	13.8	1.67	14.8	13.8	1.04
Jerry Stackhouse	93	95	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.34	-5	-3	-2	14.6	16.3	-1.69	14.2	17.0	-2.77

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.46,0.45,0.5,0.43,0.45,0.49,0.41,0.39,0.38,0.37,0.34,0.35,0.4,0.42,0.32,0.4,0.33,0.3,0.31,0.36,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.36,0.33,0.45,0.39,0.45,0.48,0.59,0.48,0.64,0.74,0.74,0.82,0.57,0.68,0.83,0.71,0.67,0.62,0.54,0.32,0.04,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIN 99, POR 95	0.5,0.51,0.5,0.49,0.43,0.41,0.35,0.35,0.36,0.29,0.3,0.29,0.38,0.37,0.36,0.42,0.4,0.4,0.44,0.37,0.39,0.41,0.45,0.49,0.56,0.54,0.57,0.49,0.49,0.42,0.3,0.38,0.45,0.41,0.44,0.48,0.64,0.66,0.66,0.66,0.52,0.68,0.74,0.67,0.61,0.62,0.54,0.45,0.09,0	92.7%
CHH 89, CHI 85	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.46,0.5,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.39,0.38,0.33,0.3,0.35,0.34,0.34,0.36,0.35,0.33,0.35,0.34,0.36,0.44,0.58,0.49,0.5,0.51,0.55,0.39,0.45,0.52,0.55,0.62,0.55,0.62,0.63,0.56,0.58,0.62,0.59,0.67,0.58,0.7,0.7,0.66,0.6,0.46,0.15,0.23,0	91.5%
HOU 94, UTA 92	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.44,0.46,0.39,0.42,0.47,0.42,0.44,0.4,0.38,0.36,0.33,0.4,0.4,0.39,0.34,0.31,0.39,0.44,0.44,0.5,0.46,0.43,0.36,0.36,0.45,0.61,0.65,0.66,0.69,0.74,0.6,0.74,0.66,0.67,0.62,0.58,0.64,0.6,0.53,0.62,0.45,0.16,0.04,0	90.9%