NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Phoenix Suns	101		Excitement	7.9 [257]		MVP	Bryant Stith (DEN): +23.2%
Denver Nuggets	99		Comeback	3.0 [455]		LVP	Nick Van Exel (DEN): -35.8%

Phoenix Suns
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tom Gugliotta	0.17	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.15,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.14	0.05	0.01	10	81%	0.17	0	0.00	6	100%	0.04
Jason Kidd	0.08	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.06,0.01,-0.05,0.08	0.01	0.06	-0.01	19	55%	0.16	2	-0.08	6	100%	0.08
Todd Day	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.01	0.03	-0.00	8	62%	0.11	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Toby Bailey	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rodney Rogers	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.00	11	55%	0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Corie Blount	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Clifford Robinson	-0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.11,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.17,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02	-0.04	0.02	0.00	19	52%	0.09	3	-0.11	8	87%	0.02
Randy Livingston	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.08	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Rex Chapman	-0.10	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.08	-0.02	-0.00	7	29%	-0.06	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Luc Longley	-0.22	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.22,-0.22	-0.12	-0.10	-0.00	8	22%	-0.16	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Bryant Stith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.06,0.11,0.2,0.26,0.26,0.23	0.23	0.09	0.14	-0.00	6	87%	0.26	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.02
Raef LaFrentz	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.07,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.15	0.15	0.11	0.02	-0.02	17	61%	0.15	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Chris Herren	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.02	0.01	-0.03	1	150%	0.05	1	0.01	0	0%	0.00
Keon Clark	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	0.00	0.01	1	100%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Popeye Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	-0.00	2	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
James Posey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
George McCloud	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	0.00	7	45%	-0.02	1	-0.04	6	100%	0.08
Ron Mercer	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.11	-0.03	-0.02	11	42%	-0.01	4	-0.10	2	100%	0.01
Antonio McDyess	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.06,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.07,-0.01,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.23,-0.26	-0.26	-0.08	-0.17	0.00	20	54%	0.03	6	-0.29	8	75%	-0.01
Nick Van Exel	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.13,-0.13,-0.22,-0.31,-0.31,-0.36	-0.36	-0.16	-0.21	-0.01	13	36%	-0.20	5	-0.16	2	50%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.6	2.5	30.2	15.4	22.4	2.3	41.3	139.8
league avg	26.0	2.2	28.8	16.5	26.3	2.2	33.7	137.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

PHX +2.7%

PHX +8.8%

PHX +17.3%

PHX +19.5%

PHX +1.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	PHX	DEN	NBA	PHX	DEN	NBA
this game	15.2	15.0	15.2	105.2	104.2	101.7
season	14.8	14.8		101.4	101.5
opponent	15.0	15.3		103.7	96.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
PHX	13.3	16.0	16.6	15.2	15.2
DEN	13.8	14.0	16.9	15.4	15.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Phoenix Suns
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tom Gugliotta	78	77	0.81	-0.31	1.12	0.40	14	-12	26	14.8	16.7	-1.88	15.1	14.4	0.70
Jason Kidd	83	82	0.65	-0.15	0.81	0.33	11	-9	20	14.8	17.6	-2.80	14.9	15.2	-0.23
Clifford Robinson	86	85	0.60	-0.10	0.70	0.42	6	-4	10	15.3	14.7	0.56	14.9	15.1	-0.16
Todd Day	65	65	0.48	0.02	0.46	0.57	-3	5	-8	14.6	16.4	-1.80	14.9	15.0	-0.11
Rodney Rogers	42	42	0.33	0.17	0.15	0.27	2	0	2	14.2	16.0	-1.83	15.1	14.8	0.33
Luc Longley	61	57	0.05	0.45	-0.40	0.17	-4	6	-10	16.3	13.3	3.01	14.8	15.2	-0.38
Toby Bailey	4	4	-0.07	0.57	-0.64	0.02	-3	5	-8	16.0	15.2	0.84	13.7	15.0	-1.26
Rex Chapman	35	36	-0.09	0.59	-0.67	-0.15	2	0	2	16.9	14.2	2.61	15.2	14.8	0.38
Corie Blount	13	14	-0.11	0.61	-0.72	0.06	-6	8	-14	13.3	15.5	-2.19	14.3	15.1	-0.79
Randy Livingston	13	13	-0.15	0.65	-0.81	0.11	-9	11	-20	17.6	14.8	2.80	15.2	14.9	0.23

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Bryant Stith	29	29	0.11	-0.61	0.72	-0.39	17	-19	36	14.3	15.2	-0.88	15.8	15.0	0.80
Keon Clark	30	33	-0.09	-0.41	0.33	0.06	-5	3	-8	14.3	15.3	-1.01	17.4	14.1	3.30
James Posey	6	6	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	0.02	-5	3	-8	15.2	14.9	0.22	11.7	15.4	-3.77
Chris Herren	22	22	-0.13	-0.37	0.23	-0.16	1	-3	4	15.2	14.9	0.35	13.6	15.7	-2.03
Raef LaFrentz	75	74	-0.16	-0.34	0.19	-0.36	7	-9	16	14.7	15.7	-1.00	16.1	12.3	3.79
Popeye Jones	31	30	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.19	1	-3	4	14.7	15.1	-0.32	13.5	16.0	-2.42
Nick Van Exel	73	74	-0.37	-0.13	-0.23	-0.28	-3	1	-4	14.9	15.2	-0.35	15.7	13.6	2.03
George McCloud	64	65	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.60	5	-7	12	15.0	14.9	0.13	14.3	17.1	-2.85
Antonio McDyess	79	80	-0.52	0.02	-0.55	-0.26	-9	7	-16	15.5	12.5	2.96	15.1	15.5	-0.36
Ron Mercer	66	67	-0.61	0.11	-0.72	-0.05	-19	17	-36	15.2	14.3	0.88	15.0	15.8	-0.80

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.53,0.52,0.49,0.4,0.39,0.35,0.35,0.36,0.4,0.35,0.42,0.47,0.53,0.62,0.6,0.66,0.54,0.56,0.51,0.64,0.61,0.58,0.58,0.54,0.52,0.64,0.58,0.62,0.72,0.72,0.66,0.52,0.44,0.3,0.15,0.29,0.28,0.15,0.17,0.14,0.27,0.1,0.17,0.25,0.15,0
Game		Similarity Score
SAS 96, MIL 94	0.5,0.51,0.45,0.52,0.49,0.5,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.39,0.37,0.4,0.4,0.52,0.51,0.55,0.47,0.51,0.61,0.61,0.54,0.64,0.69,0.72,0.6,0.58,0.58,0.6,0.59,0.73,0.71,0.77,0.8,0.72,0.56,0.4,0.36,0.3,0.22,0.21,0.43,0.27,0.14,0.15,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.16,0.27,0	91.9%
CHI 106, ORL 100	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.52,0.48,0.5,0.51,0.53,0.55,0.53,0.56,0.4,0.38,0.47,0.53,0.54,0.6,0.61,0.64,0.56,0.61,0.59,0.59,0.58,0.62,0.6,0.64,0.64,0.73,0.71,0.68,0.72,0.59,0.48,0.36,0.34,0.3,0.3,0.24,0.15,0.14,0.05,0.17,0.14,0.11,0.14,0.15,0	91.9%
PHX 106, LAL 101	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.43,0.38,0.33,0.31,0.3,0.27,0.31,0.35,0.42,0.46,0.49,0.53,0.58,0.62,0.58,0.56,0.53,0.59,0.69,0.61,0.61,0.63,0.66,0.69,0.64,0.61,0.64,0.66,0.65,0.72,0.59,0.56,0.44,0.26,0.26,0.3,0.29,0.27,0.26,0.22,0.17,0.14,0.05,0.1,0,0	91.8%