NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	107		Excitement	8.7 [151]		MVP	Sam Cassell (MIL): +40.3%
Atlanta Hawks	101		Comeback	1.7 [549]		LVP	Glenn Robinson (MIL): -33.3%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Sam Cassell	0.40	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.09,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.16,0.13,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.32,0.32,0.4	0.14	0.24	-0.02	19	70%	0.46	2	-0.05	6	100%	0.04
Ray Allen	0.03	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.06,0.09,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.00	0.00	19	59%	0.10	3	-0.07	1	100%	0.00
Vinny Del Negro	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.00	0.03	-0.00	6	42%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Danny Manning	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	0.02	-0.00	5	40%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Robert Traylor	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ervin Johnson	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	0.01	-0.05	0.00	4	60%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.10
Tim Thomas	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07	0.01	-0.08	-0.00	9	55%	-0.05	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Scott Williams	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.05	-0.06	-0.01	11	41%	-0.10	0	0.00	7	86%	0.04
Glenn Robinson	-0.33	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.16,-0.23,-0.29,-0.35,-0.35,-0.45,-0.33	-0.13	-0.21	-0.01	16	44%	-0.05	6	-0.28	2	100%	0.01

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Lorenzen Wright	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.08	-0.00	0.01	9	70%	0.07	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
LaPhonso Ellis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.01	0.03	-0.00	9	68%	0.12	3	-0.08	1	100%	0.01
Jim Jackson	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.04	0.04	0.01	0.02	-0.01	14	55%	0.10	2	-0.06	3	100%	0.02
Jason Terry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.07,0.1,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.03	-0.01	0.00	7	68%	0.10	1	-0.07	5	60%	-0.00
Chris Crawford	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Johnson	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	8	25%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dikembe Mutombo	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.03	-0.06	0.01	3	50%	-0.08	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.00
Alan Henderson	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.24,-0.24	-0.24	-0.03	-0.20	0.01	14	59%	-0.05	4	-0.19	6	100%	0.08
Isaiah Rider	0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.26	-0.26	-0.11	-0.14	0.00	18	39%	-0.12	3	-0.14	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.4	2.3	28.3	15.0	25.2	1.8	39.2	134.3
league avg	26.0	2.2	28.8	16.5	26.3	2.2	33.7	137.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +38.1%

ATL -15.1%

MIL +6.9%

MIL +16.5%

MIL +3.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	ATL	NBA	MIL	ATL	NBA
this game	16.1	15.4	15.2	117.6	109.8	101.7
season	14.9	15.4		105.5	99.3
opponent	15.2	15.4		105.1	105.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	14.2	16.8	16.8	16.4	16.1
ATL	17.7	13.2	17.5	13.6	15.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ervin Johnson	58	60	0.88	-0.38	1.27	0.36	18	-12	30	15.9	16.4	-0.48	16.4	13.6	2.76
Ray Allen	68	70	0.66	-0.16	0.83	0.28	13	-7	20	16.2	15.7	0.54	16.1	13.3	2.83
Sam Cassell	78	76	0.63	-0.13	0.76	0.28	12	-6	18	15.6	18.6	-2.99	15.5	15.1	0.44
Glenn Robinson	69	69	0.61	-0.11	0.71	0.25	12	-6	18	16.1	16.0	0.07	15.7	14.5	1.20
Tim Thomas	48	46	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.44	-2	8	-10	15.7	16.4	-0.65	13.7	17.1	-3.37
Scott Williams	64	65	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	-0.10	3	3	0	16.3	15.5	0.82	16.1	13.7	2.43
Robert Traylor	2	3	-0.02	0.52	-0.53	-0.02	0	6	-6	9.5	16.2	-6.70	22.3	15.2	7.14
Vinny Del Negro	37	39	-0.29	0.79	-1.08	0.09	-13	19	-32	16.3	15.9	0.45	13.9	16.5	-2.65
Danny Manning	31	32	-0.34	0.84	-1.19	0.04	-13	19	-32	17.2	15.5	1.73	13.5	16.4	-2.95

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Lorenzen Wright	55	52	0.34	-0.84	1.18	-0.19	18	-24	42	13.2	18.8	-5.57	16.6	15.3	1.35
Chris Crawford	8	7	0.09	-0.59	0.67	-0.03	4	-10	14	11.9	15.8	-3.89	16.4	16.0	0.40
LaPhonso Ellis	54	53	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	-0.36	12	-18	30	13.1	18.7	-5.51	16.7	15.1	1.59
Jason Terry	53	51	-0.06	-0.44	0.39	-0.38	11	-17	28	13.7	17.8	-4.12	16.5	15.4	1.08
Anthony Johnson	39	40	-0.44	-0.06	-0.39	0.06	-17	11	-28	17.8	13.7	4.12	15.4	16.5	-1.08
Isaiah Rider	77	75	-0.53	0.03	-0.55	-0.29	-8	2	-10	15.4	15.4	0.03	16.3	14.9	1.43
Alan Henderson	70	72	-0.57	0.07	-0.65	-0.25	-11	5	-16	15.9	14.0	1.87	16.0	16.2	-0.20
Dikembe Mutombo	38	39	-0.59	0.09	-0.68	0.02	-21	15	-36	19.7	12.4	7.35	15.5	16.4	-0.90
Jim Jackson	66	66	-0.73	0.23	-0.95	-0.20	-18	12	-30	16.6	12.4	4.24	15.1	18.6	-3.51

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.52,0.5,0.46,0.44,0.45,0.36,0.32,0.31,0.33,0.34,0.35,0.28,0.26,0.34,0.33,0.35,0.37,0.41,0.39,0.39,0.41,0.46,0.51,0.52,0.43,0.31,0.33,0.39,0.26,0.2,0.22,0.21,0.12,0.28,0.19,0.19,0.18,0.2,0.32,0.32,0.53,0.33,0.38,0.46,0.22,0.27,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIL 100, SAS 98	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.39,0.34,0.35,0.36,0.37,0.43,0.37,0.36,0.37,0.28,0.29,0.42,0.47,0.42,0.41,0.48,0.54,0.46,0.44,0.49,0.49,0.42,0.37,0.34,0.33,0.39,0.29,0.29,0.24,0.21,0.19,0.25,0.26,0.26,0.25,0.24,0.42,0.53,0.6,0.39,0.32,0.36,0.33,0.09,0	92.5%
CHA 96, IND 95	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.48,0.53,0.5,0.47,0.41,0.4,0.38,0.45,0.44,0.43,0.42,0.38,0.36,0.4,0.33,0.34,0.34,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.33,0.46,0.43,0.31,0.36,0.33,0.24,0.2,0.15,0.14,0.1,0.08,0.13,0.22,0.19,0.14,0.2,0.19,0.31,0.4,0.47,0.56,0.46,0.32,0.16,0	91.9%
POR 106, CHI 101	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.48,0.44,0.45,0.43,0.43,0.41,0.39,0.45,0.42,0.4,0.34,0.32,0.4,0.33,0.35,0.29,0.31,0.31,0.36,0.39,0.41,0.46,0.52,0.48,0.39,0.36,0.33,0.23,0.25,0.22,0.23,0.19,0.21,0.04,0.07,0.09,0.11,0.19,0.21,0.4,0.42,0.53,0.29,0.43,0.15,0	91.9%