NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	103		Excitement	8.9 [132]		MVP	Voshon Lenard (MIA): +18.2%
Miami Heat	111		Comeback	99.0 [11]		LVP	Tariq Abdul-Wahad (ORL): -32.5%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Michael Doleac	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.01	-0.04	-0.01	9	64%	0.07	2	-0.09	4	100%	0.02
Ben Wallace	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Monty Williams	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03	-0.06	0.01	-0.02	6	43%	0.02	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Chucky Atkins	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03	0.03	-0.03	0.03	7	67%	-0.00	1	-0.03	4	75%	-0.03
Corey Maggette	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.06	0.01	-0.01	6	38%	0.00	2	-0.05	1	100%	0.00
Bo Outlaw	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	3	50%	0.00	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
John Amaechi	-0.12	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.04	-0.08	0.00	12	38%	-0.12	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Pat Garrity	-0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.15,-0.15	0.01	-0.14	0.02	4	50%	-0.15	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Gatling	-0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.13,-0.14,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.14	-0.03	-0.00	10	34%	-0.12	2	-0.05	9	67%	-0.02
Darrell Armstrong	-0.23	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.11,-0.11,-0.21,-0.21,-0.23,-0.23	-0.10	-0.16	-0.03	18	42%	-0.07	4	-0.16	2	100%	0.01
Tariq Abdul-Wahad	-0.32	0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.02,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.2,-0.27,-0.32,-0.32	-0.13	-0.19	0.00	20	46%	-0.12	5	-0.20	8	100%	0.07

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Voshon Lenard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.16,0.16,0.18,0.18,0.22,0.2,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.18	0.19	0.01	0.01	12	89%	0.21	1	-0.03	3	100%	0.02
Dan Majerle	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.08	0.08	0.01	7	81%	0.18	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.05
Duane Causwell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Otis Thorpe	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	4	25%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
P.J. Brown	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.14,-0.14,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.07	0.02	-0.01	15	37%	-0.01	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Rex Walters	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	-0.00	-0.01	4	25%	-0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Clar. Weatherspoon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Carter	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.02	-0.07	0.01	9	59%	-0.01	3	-0.09	4	100%	0.01
Jamal Mashburn	0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.08,-0.1,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.25	-0.25	-0.09	-0.14	0.02	22	46%	-0.06	4	-0.19	4	75%	-0.00
Alonzo Mourning	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.1,-0.15,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.19,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.23,-0.26,-0.26,-0.25,-0.25,-0.26,-0.22,-0.22,-0.28,-0.28,-0.28	-0.28	-0.18	-0.09	0.01	18	40%	-0.02	2	-0.26	17	76%	-0.04

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	24.6	1.6	34.2	15.6	23.8	1.8	42.2	1.6	20.0	165.4
league avg	26.0	2.2	28.8	16.5	26.3	2.2	33.7	1.7	18.2	137.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +77.6%

ORL -0.3%

ORL -26.0%

MIA +4.0%

ORL -5.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	MIA	NBA	ORL	MIA	NBA
this game	13.6	14.5	15.2	90.4	99.1	101.7
season	13.6	15.7		100.4	101.2
opponent	15.9	15.4		98.2	99.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
ORL	12.1	11.6	16.4	15.2	12.6	13.6
MIA	13.6	18.0	14.3	13.0	13.5	14.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Corey Maggette	27	27	0.24	-0.74	0.98	0.04	7	-15	22	14.3	13.4	0.94	15.1	14.4	0.71
Bo Outlaw	54	53	0.13	-0.63	0.76	-0.05	6	-14	20	12.6	14.5	-1.87	15.5	13.6	1.88
Chucky Atkins	33	35	-0.09	-0.41	0.33	-0.29	7	-15	22	12.7	14.0	-1.33	14.0	14.8	-0.74
Chris Gatling	61	59	-0.12	-0.38	0.27	-0.29	6	-14	20	12.9	14.4	-1.46	15.5	13.4	2.13
Ben Wallace	43	45	-0.12	-0.38	0.27	0.12	-8	0	-8	15.1	12.7	2.41	14.3	14.7	-0.41
John Amaechi	51	49	-0.13	-0.37	0.23	0.01	-5	-3	-2	14.6	12.8	1.76	14.5	14.6	-0.12
Michael Doleac	62	61	-0.16	-0.34	0.19	-0.16	0	-8	8	12.9	14.5	-1.63	14.5	14.6	-0.10
Pat Garrity	10	9	-0.53	0.03	-0.57	-0.24	-10	2	-12	12.3	13.7	-1.44	11.1	14.8	-3.72
Monty Williams	57	56	-0.63	0.13	-0.77	-0.14	-17	9	-26	14.6	12.6	1.96	13.9	15.2	-1.32
Darrell Armstrong	85	81	-0.68	0.18	-0.87	-0.30	-13	5	-18	13.7	13.4	0.22	14.3	15.1	-0.78
Tariq Abdul-Wahad	88	86	-0.74	0.24	-0.97	-0.30	-15	7	-22	13.4	14.2	-0.75	14.3	15.2	-0.91

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Anthony Carter	84	89	0.72	-0.22	0.94	0.34	13	-5	18	14.2	15.5	-1.24	13.6	13.8	-0.29
P.J. Brown	86	89	0.71	-0.21	0.92	0.30	14	-6	20	14.2	15.7	-1.46	13.9	12.4	1.50
Dan Majerle	81	83	0.70	-0.20	0.90	0.26	15	-7	22	13.3	17.7	-4.34	14.1	12.2	1.95
Alonzo Mourning	92	94	0.49	0.01	0.47	0.40	3	5	-2	13.7	18.3	-4.64	13.9	12.4	1.47
Jamal Mashburn	85	84	0.25	0.25	-0.01	0.13	4	4	0	14.8	13.6	1.29	13.2	14.8	-1.65
Voshon Lenard	62	63	0.09	0.41	-0.32	0.00	3	5	-2	15.2	13.7	1.51	13.7	13.5	0.19
Duane Causwell	11	11	-0.02	0.52	-0.55	-0.05	1	7	-6	18.9	14.1	4.85	12.0	13.8	-1.79
Rex Walters	12	11	-0.11	0.61	-0.72	0.01	-4	12	-16	16.5	14.3	2.20	13.1	13.7	-0.58
Clar. Weatherspoon	14	14	-0.12	0.62	-0.74	0.03	-5	13	-18	16.6	14.2	2.41	13.3	13.7	-0.37
Otis Thorpe	33	32	-0.20	0.70	-0.90	-0.08	-4	12	-16	16.3	13.8	2.55	12.6	14.0	-1.42

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.47,0.56,0.62,0.63,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.44,0.35,0.34,0.32,0.34,0.38,0.4,0.39,0.32,0.41,0.42,0.33,0.33,0.3,0.34,0.28,0.25,0.22,0.24,0.29,0.2,0.25,0.2,0.14,0.1,0.06,0.13,0.18,0.09,0.12,0.1,0.12,0.07,0.04,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.46,0.45,0.45,0.78,0.99,1
Game		Similarity Score
POR 101, DAL 111	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.52,0.5,0.53,0.53,0.55,0.55,0.59,0.62,0.6,0.53,0.48,0.45,0.51,0.58,0.53,0.49,0.39,0.34,0.39,0.51,0.44,0.42,0.37,0.32,0.26,0.28,0.3,0.24,0.26,0.19,0.27,0.27,0.26,0.09,0.06,0.03,0.04,0.11,0.15,0.11,0.12,0.04,0.03,0.03,0,0.08,0.54,0.69,0.85,0.99,1,1	89.8%
NYK 99, CLE 104	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.5,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.51,0.45,0.53,0.54,0.48,0.45,0.36,0.31,0.25,0.26,0.22,0.17,0.22,0.22,0.27,0.33,0.37,0.29,0.23,0.33,0.27,0.24,0.18,0.22,0.25,0.28,0.16,0.21,0.13,0.07,0.03,0.07,0.09,0.06,0.07,0.17,0.21,0.21,0.15,0.15,0.54,0.61,0.79,0.91,0.99,1	89.5%
CHI 97, DAL 104	0.5,0.49,0.43,0.43,0.45,0.45,0.42,0.37,0.39,0.32,0.39,0.45,0.4,0.35,0.36,0.36,0.32,0.36,0.39,0.37,0.34,0.26,0.26,0.28,0.3,0.27,0.23,0.18,0.11,0.13,0.08,0.09,0.13,0.16,0.2,0.22,0.15,0.1,0.05,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0.54,0.69,0.69,0.85,0.92,1	89.4%