NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	111		Excitement	4.7 [849]		MVP	Chucky Brown (SAS): +16.5%
Dallas Mavericks	93		Comeback	1.6 [951]		LVP	Michael Finley (DAL): -9.1%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chucky Brown	0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.12	0.05	0.00	6	100%	0.17	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jaren Jackson	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.05	0.02	-0.01	6	75%	0.12	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Avery Johnson	0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.00	0.02	-0.01	15	50%	0.06	1	-0.03	2	0%	-0.03
Samaki Walker	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.00	-0.00	-0.01	5	80%	0.04	3	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Antonio Daniels	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Steve Kerr	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	0.00	0.02	2	75%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Terry Porter	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.06	0.00	-0.05	5	46%	-0.00	2	-0.00	3	67%	-0.00
David Robinson	-0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	-0.01	-0.02	8	56%	0.03	3	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Tim Duncan	-0.04	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.00	0.00	23	54%	0.07	4	-0.11	8	87%	0.02
Jerome Kersey	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	0.00	-0.00	0.04	7	47%	-0.04	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Mario Elie	-0.04	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.07	-0.00	-0.03	6	21%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Malik Rose	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.02	-0.01	0.02	6	50%	-0.04	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.00

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Cedric Ceballos	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.10	0.03	0.01	18	66%	0.17	2	-0.05	5	80%	0.00
Bruno Sundov	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	0	0%	0.00	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rick Hughes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Sean Rooks	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	3	67%	0.00	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Damon Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.05	0.00	0.06	3	87%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Shawn Bradley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.06	0.00	-0.06	8	37%	0.04	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Hubert Davis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.02	2	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gary Trent	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.07	-0.02	-0.04	14	43%	0.01	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Robert Pack	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.08	-0.01	-0.02	15	41%	-0.01	2	-0.06	4	100%	0.01
Dirk Nowitzki	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	0.01	9	40%	-0.04	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Michael Finley	0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.05	-0.02	0.01	15	43%	-0.08	1	-0.01	5	80%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.3	2.4	25.4	16.3	24.6	2.3	28.3	122.8
league avg	26.0	2.2	28.8	16.5	26.3	2.2	33.7	137.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +32.5%

SAS +2.7%

SAS +23.5%

DAL -5.2%

DAL -3.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	DAL	NBA	SAS	DAL	NBA
this game	14.8	14.1	15.2	112.1	93.0	101.7
season	15.5	14.8		101.6	104.2
opponent	14.8	15.4		104.6	95.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	16.0	13.1	17.2	13.3	14.8
DAL	14.7	16.4	12.8	12.9	14.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jaren Jackson	59	60	0.51	-0.01	0.52	-0.13	22	-4	26	13.2	17.2	-4.08	15.7	11.7	4.01
Tim Duncan	82	82	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.00	17	1	16	15.1	13.6	1.41	14.3	13.4	0.84
Avery Johnson	61	62	0.39	0.12	0.27	0.06	11	7	4	15.5	13.7	1.75	14.8	13.0	1.82
Chucky Brown	43	44	0.27	0.23	0.03	0.12	5	13	-8	16.7	13.4	3.32	13.6	14.6	-1.00
Samaki Walker	38	38	0.21	0.29	-0.07	-0.11	11	7	4	12.5	16.3	-3.76	13.6	14.4	-0.80
Malik Rose	36	37	0.16	0.34	-0.17	0.10	2	16	-14	15.8	14.3	1.55	11.8	15.5	-3.77
David Robinson	42	43	0.12	0.38	-0.25	-0.05	6	12	-6	15.6	14.2	1.35	16.3	12.5	3.85
Jerome Kersey	30	30	0.12	0.38	-0.26	-0.17	10	8	2	13.1	15.6	-2.51	15.2	13.7	1.58
Terry Porter	38	38	0.12	0.39	-0.27	-0.09	7	11	-4	13.7	15.5	-1.75	13.0	14.8	-1.82
Mario Elie	45	43	0.10	0.40	-0.29	0.07	1	17	-16	16.4	13.5	2.98	14.7	13.7	1.04
Steve Kerr	11	12	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.03	-1	19	-20	14.6	14.8	-0.20	8.4	14.9	-6.49
Antonio Daniels	10	11	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.03	-1	19	-20	14.6	14.8	-0.24	8.5	14.8	-6.27

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Sean Rooks	15	14	0.05	-0.55	0.60	-0.04	3	-21	24	8.9	15.1	-6.19	13.3	15.1	-1.78
Bruno Sundov	7	6	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.03	1	-19	20	6.1	14.7	-8.59	12.3	15.0	-2.65
Rick Hughes	11	10	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.03	1	-19	20	8.5	14.8	-6.27	14.6	14.8	-0.24
Damon Jones	17	16	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	0.08	-3	-15	12	10.5	14.9	-4.41	13.6	15.1	-1.50
Hubert Davis	45	44	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	0.11	-11	-7	-4	14.2	14.0	0.21	13.1	16.2	-3.03
Dirk Nowitzki	58	60	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	0.08	-12	-6	-6	14.5	13.6	0.88	15.2	14.2	0.97
Michael Finley	86	85	-0.34	-0.16	-0.17	0.04	-13	-5	-8	14.7	10.7	3.97	15.1	12.9	2.20
Gary Trent	47	45	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.02	-12	-6	-6	16.2	12.3	3.93	14.4	15.2	-0.77
Shawn Bradley	70	70	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.03	-12	-6	-6	14.0	14.5	-0.53	15.5	13.1	2.47
Cedric Ceballos	78	77	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.00	-15	-3	-12	14.7	12.3	2.38	15.2	13.5	1.64
Robert Pack	66	68	-0.53	0.03	-0.56	-0.03	-17	-1	-16	15.0	12.5	2.51	15.2	14.1	1.10

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.62,0.59,0.61,0.59,0.57,0.53,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.44,0.38,0.47,0.49,0.44,0.49,0.43,0.41,0.36,0.28,0.36,0.37,0.32,0.31,0.22,0.19,0.24,0.26,0.22,0.31,0.3,0.23,0.13,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
PHI 120, IND 96	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.55,0.6,0.54,0.54,0.55,0.55,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.43,0.51,0.47,0.53,0.52,0.46,0.48,0.44,0.46,0.36,0.36,0.39,0.33,0.38,0.31,0.3,0.19,0.21,0.29,0.26,0.19,0.2,0.17,0.18,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.12,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.2%
SAS 97, LAC 88	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.51,0.56,0.53,0.56,0.55,0.57,0.6,0.55,0.53,0.5,0.45,0.34,0.33,0.35,0.46,0.48,0.41,0.41,0.34,0.31,0.33,0.33,0.26,0.29,0.22,0.27,0.21,0.23,0.29,0.28,0.17,0.19,0.17,0.13,0.07,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.0%
DET 117, MIN 90	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.51,0.56,0.63,0.6,0.57,0.6,0.6,0.51,0.45,0.37,0.47,0.51,0.53,0.47,0.51,0.48,0.52,0.49,0.42,0.33,0.27,0.33,0.35,0.28,0.22,0.24,0.3,0.26,0.32,0.38,0.34,0.27,0.15,0.05,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	94.7%