NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	101		Excitement	8.2 [228]		MVP	James Posey (DEN): +15.8%
Milwaukee Bucks	99		Comeback	12.6 [25]		LVP	Nick Van Exel (DEN): -16.1%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
James Posey	0.16	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.11	0.07	0.02	10	73%	0.16	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
George McCloud	0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.15	0.09	0.06	0.00	11	81%	0.24	3	-0.09	4	75%	-0.02
Raef LaFrentz	0.07	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,0.07,0.07	-0.05	0.12	0.00	9	46%	0.09	1	-0.02	8	50%	-0.05
Ryan Bowen	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.01	0.03	0.00	3	33%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bryant Stith	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Keon Clark	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.00	-0.03	0.00	3	67%	0.03	1	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Roy Rogers	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	3	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Antonio McDyess	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.05,0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.06	-0.00	0.01	18	38%	0.02	1	-0.10	3	33%	-0.01
Chauncey Billups	-0.08	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.07	-0.01	0.00	4	25%	-0.04	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Nick Van Exel	-0.16	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.11,-0.09,-0.15,-0.15,-0.2,-0.2,-0.26,-0.17,-0.19,-0.16	-0.10	-0.06	-0.00	23	48%	-0.02	4	-0.14	10	80%	-0.00

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tim Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.03	0.04	-0.00	9	64%	0.10	1	-0.03	4	50%	-0.00
Danny Manning	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.00	-0.00	-0.00	3	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Scott Williams	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	0.01	0.01	9	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
J.R. Reid	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Sam Cassell	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.08	0.07	0.00	11	57%	0.13	5	-0.13	6	67%	0.03
Ray Allen	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,0,-0.02,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.12,-0.12,-0.05	-0.05	0.04	-0.04	0.05	23	50%	-0.05	0	0.00	4	100%	0.04
Ervin Johnson	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.08	-0.02	-0.01	3	12%	-0.07	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.03
Vinny Del Negro	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.11	-0.05	-0.00	5	20%	-0.07	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Glenn Robinson	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.12,0.18,0.11,0.04,-0.05,-0.11,-0.15	-0.15	0.01	-0.17	-0.00	22	52%	-0.05	2	-0.10	2	0%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.7	1.7	28.6	15.4	21.3	1.7	36.6	130.0
league avg	26.0	2.2	28.8	16.5	26.3	2.2	33.7	137.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +56.9%

MIL -2.3%

DEN +8.1%

MIL -11.4%

MIL -1.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	MIL	NBA	DEN	MIL	NBA
this game	15.7	13.2	15.2	101.0	100.0	101.7
season	14.8	14.9		101.5	105.5
opponent	15.4	15.0		105.1	103.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	14.3	17.2	15.7	15.7	15.7
MIL	13.9	12.3	12.6	14.3	13.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
George McCloud	65	66	0.90	-0.40	1.29	0.22	23	-21	44	15.7	15.7	0.02	13.8	12.0	1.85
Nick Van Exel	92	90	0.59	-0.09	0.68	0.42	6	-4	10	15.3	19.9	-4.54	13.2	14.0	-0.84
James Posey	58	57	0.38	0.12	0.27	0.56	-6	8	-14	15.6	15.8	-0.23	12.9	13.7	-0.84
Keon Clark	41	40	0.37	0.13	0.25	0.02	12	-10	22	13.1	17.5	-4.37	14.3	12.5	1.75
Raef LaFrentz	69	68	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.36	-3	5	-8	17.2	12.3	4.89	13.5	12.6	0.85
Antonio McDyess	79	79	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.29	-1	3	-4	15.2	17.4	-2.19	12.5	16.2	-3.72
Ryan Bowen	29	27	0.24	0.26	-0.02	0.27	-1	3	-4	15.4	15.8	-0.45	13.9	13.0	0.85
Bryant Stith	11	11	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	-0.06	1	1	0	16.4	15.6	0.75	14.3	13.1	1.17
Roy Rogers	14	13	-0.16	0.66	-0.81	0.08	-8	10	-18	20.3	15.0	5.33	12.6	13.3	-0.71
Chauncey Billups	42	44	-0.33	0.83	-1.16	0.05	-13	15	-28	16.0	15.5	0.56	12.5	13.9	-1.40

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Scott Williams	41	41	0.18	-0.68	0.85	0.06	4	-6	10	12.6	13.7	-1.10	14.8	16.3	-1.48
Danny Manning	20	21	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.08	-3	1	-4	15.8	12.6	3.28	18.1	15.1	3.09
Ervin Johnson	74	74	-0.21	-0.29	0.09	-0.24	1	-3	4	12.5	15.4	-2.95	15.6	15.9	-0.25
J.R. Reid	26	26	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.09	-4	2	-6	15.1	12.6	2.55	17.6	15.0	2.59
Vinny Del Negro	40	41	-0.22	-0.28	0.07	-0.16	-2	0	-2	14.8	12.1	2.71	16.2	15.3	0.92
Ray Allen	83	85	-0.25	-0.25	0.01	-0.39	5	-7	12	12.8	15.2	-2.41	15.8	15.3	0.51
Glenn Robinson	77	77	-0.32	-0.18	-0.15	-0.35	1	-3	4	12.8	14.8	-2.04	14.9	18.5	-3.66
Sam Cassell	76	76	-0.63	0.13	-0.75	-0.45	-6	4	-10	12.7	15.1	-2.47	14.9	18.2	-3.30
Tim Thomas	58	59	-0.68	0.18	-0.85	-0.50	-6	4	-10	13.7	12.6	1.10	16.3	14.8	1.48

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.51,0.49,0.57,0.53,0.47,0.51,0.53,0.6,0.62,0.62,0.67,0.69,0.65,0.66,0.63,0.66,0.72,0.81,0.7,0.54,0.68,0.69,0.7,0.81,0.86,0.9,0.9,0.79,0.87,0.74,0.82,0.81,0.82,0.75,0.72,0.63,0.53,0.53,0.78,0.55,0.46,0.32,0.04,0
Game		Similarity Score
BOS 105, POR 100	0.5,0.51,0.47,0.48,0.47,0.44,0.49,0.53,0.59,0.63,0.6,0.62,0.64,0.57,0.58,0.62,0.67,0.65,0.65,0.63,0.66,0.56,0.54,0.56,0.56,0.63,0.6,0.66,0.7,0.76,0.76,0.77,0.8,0.87,0.87,0.88,0.84,0.87,0.81,0.75,0.67,0.58,0.64,0.45,0.6,0.62,0.55,0.33,0.17,0	91.4%
CHI 99, BOS 96	0.5,0.49,0.42,0.42,0.45,0.5,0.51,0.55,0.53,0.57,0.55,0.6,0.64,0.65,0.64,0.64,0.69,0.67,0.71,0.7,0.61,0.61,0.72,0.73,0.7,0.67,0.78,0.84,0.85,0.83,0.84,0.84,0.8,0.69,0.73,0.67,0.64,0.66,0.7,0.71,0.67,0.72,0.59,0.59,0.6,0.69,0.63,0.22,0.15,0	91.2%
ATL 82, MIA 79	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.5,0.56,0.56,0.57,0.51,0.61,0.57,0.62,0.58,0.57,0.64,0.68,0.66,0.67,0.67,0.76,0.7,0.76,0.79,0.77,0.67,0.67,0.71,0.72,0.67,0.73,0.73,0.71,0.68,0.62,0.63,0.8,0.82,0.87,0.85,0.85,0.76,0.63,0.53,0.46,0.6,0.69,0.36,0.24,0.15,0	91.0%