NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	103		Excitement	6.5 [517]		MVP	Chris Gatling (ORL): +8.2%
Minnesota Timberwolves	93		Comeback	1.4 [242]		LVP	Darrell Armstrong (ORL): -25.1%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chris Gatling	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.05	0.03	-0.00	16	61%	0.13	2	-0.05	4	50%	-0.02
Michael Doleac	0.06	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.00	0.00	8	67%	0.06	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Pat Garrity	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.01	0.00	4	75%	0.05	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Bo Outlaw	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.00	0.00	-0.02	3	60%	0.02	0	0.00	4	50%	0.00
Chucky Atkins	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.03	0.03	-0.01	14	55%	0.08	3	-0.07	5	80%	0.01
Monty Williams	0.01	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.01,0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.02	0.01	13	54%	0.06	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
John Amaechi	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	5	54%	0.00	1	-0.01	3	100%	0.01
Ben Wallace	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tariq Abdul-Wahad	-0.05	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.01	-0.02	0.02	11	50%	-0.02	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Anthony Parker	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.09	-0.04	-0.00	7	25%	-0.09	1	-0.04	2	0%	-0.05
Darrell Armstrong	-0.25	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.12,-0.16,-0.18,-0.2,-0.22,-0.22,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25	-0.25	-0.04	-0.03	11	8%	-0.17	4	-0.08	2	100%	0.00

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tom Hammonds	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
William Avery	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bobby Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	9	60%	0.06	3	-0.08	2	100%	0.01
Dean Garrett	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	0.01	2	83%	0.02	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01
Sam Mitchell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.02	-0.03	-0.00	9	44%	-0.04	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Malik Sealy	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,-0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	10	44%	-0.06	0	0.00	5	100%	0.03
Terrell Brandon	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.06	-0.00	0.02	16	47%	-0.01	3	-0.07	2	100%	0.00
Anthony Peeler	0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.09	-0.01	-0.00	4	37%	0.01	4	-0.11	0	0%	0.00
Rasho Nesterovic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.12	-0.03	-0.02	4	10%	-0.09	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.02
Kevin Garnett	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.14,-0.14,-0.11,-0.14,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.18,-0.18,-0.16,-0.19,-0.21,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.25,-0.19,-0.19,-0.21,-0.22,-0.22,-0.18,-0.18,-0.19,-0.19	-0.19	-0.15	-0.07	-0.03	19	38%	-0.11	3	-0.08	7	71%	-0.00
Joe Smith	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22	-0.22	-0.11	-0.08	0.03	14	49%	-0.10	4	-0.12	9	67%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.3	2.5	28.4	15.4	28.2	1.5	33.4	134.7
league avg	26.0	2.2	28.8	16.5	26.3	2.2	33.7	137.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +43.9%

MIN -4.2%

MIN -8.2%

ORL +19.9%

MIN -1.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	MIN	NBA	ORL	MIN	NBA
this game	12.9	14.0	15.2	97.2	86.1	101.7
season	13.6	15.1		100.4	103.5
opponent	15.7	15.4		101.1	99.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	10.8	13.0	14.2	13.9	12.9
MIN	13.6	15.2	13.0	14.4	14.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tariq Abdul-Wahad	50	51	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.06	12	-2	14	11.6	14.1	-2.53	13.6	14.4	-0.80
Bo Outlaw	65	66	0.38	0.12	0.27	0.15	8	2	6	13.7	11.6	2.14	14.2	13.7	0.44
Chucky Atkins	53	54	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.16	7	3	4	12.9	12.9	0.06	14.1	13.9	0.24
Chris Gatling	59	59	0.36	0.14	0.21	0.18	6	4	2	13.8	11.8	1.99	14.2	13.8	0.43
John Amaechi	59	59	0.23	0.27	-0.04	0.17	2	8	-6	13.6	12.0	1.61	14.3	13.7	0.65
Michael Doleac	27	29	0.18	0.32	-0.14	0.03	5	5	0	11.6	13.3	-1.75	13.7	14.1	-0.48
Ben Wallace	42	42	0.15	0.35	-0.20	0.03	4	6	-2	12.1	13.4	-1.33	13.6	14.3	-0.64
Darrell Armstrong	56	57	0.14	0.36	-0.22	0.05	3	7	-4	12.9	12.9	0.07	13.8	14.2	-0.43
Anthony Parker	44	45	0.12	0.38	-0.26	0.12	0	10	-10	13.2	12.7	0.53	14.9	13.4	1.55
Monty Williams	53	54	0.09	0.41	-0.33	0.09	0	10	-10	12.9	12.9	-0.02	13.4	14.6	-1.13
Pat Garrity	22	24	0.08	0.42	-0.34	-0.01	3	7	-4	11.6	13.2	-1.65	14.1	14.0	0.15

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Rasho Nesterovic	41	40	0.14	-0.64	0.78	-0.15	10	-20	30	13.3	14.5	-1.19	14.6	11.9	2.74
Bobby Jackson	38	36	0.03	-0.53	0.55	-0.03	2	-12	14	12.3	14.9	-2.61	15.0	11.8	3.14
William Avery	3	4	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.03	1	-11	12	12.3	14.1	-1.72	15.5	12.8	2.71
Malik Sealy	49	47	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.10	-1	-9	8	13.3	14.6	-1.36	15.1	11.2	3.89
Sam Mitchell	49	46	-0.19	-0.31	0.11	-0.11	-3	-7	4	14.6	13.5	1.07	13.9	12.1	1.83
Tom Hammonds	25	25	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.01	-7	-3	-4	13.3	14.2	-0.95	11.5	13.3	-1.85
Dean Garrett	31	30	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	0.04	-12	2	-14	14.4	13.9	0.48	10.1	14.0	-3.85
Joe Smith	94	93	-0.34	-0.16	-0.19	-0.23	-4	-6	2	14.0	14.3	-0.32	12.5	15.5	-2.92
Anthony Peeler	56	55	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.08	-10	0	-10	14.7	13.2	1.54	10.9	15.1	-4.24
Terrell Brandon	70	70	-0.53	0.03	-0.55	-0.17	-12	2	-14	14.9	12.3	2.61	11.8	15.0	-3.14
Kevin Garnett	84	84	-0.58	0.08	-0.65	-0.17	-14	4	-18	14.2	13.5	0.71	13.3	11.3	2.05

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.53,0.48,0.48,0.44,0.48,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.53,0.53,0.56,0.54,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.37,0.36,0.41,0.42,0.33,0.33,0.37,0.23,0.2,0.15,0.22,0.21,0.26,0.17,0.25,0.31,0.26,0.25,0.22,0.16,0.18,0.17,0.19,0.17,0.05,0.04,0.05,0.07,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
BKN 104, TOR 103	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.44,0.48,0.44,0.48,0.45,0.47,0.53,0.57,0.62,0.6,0.54,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.49,0.4,0.39,0.34,0.36,0.42,0.39,0.33,0.27,0.31,0.26,0.17,0.24,0.21,0.29,0.23,0.19,0.14,0.17,0.15,0.19,0.16,0.15,0.11,0.15,0.22,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.01,0	95.0%
PHI 93, TOR 75	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.44,0.41,0.45,0.49,0.47,0.58,0.49,0.5,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.42,0.47,0.47,0.44,0.44,0.46,0.46,0.41,0.37,0.32,0.26,0.13,0.17,0.21,0.26,0.22,0.24,0.3,0.33,0.29,0.26,0.22,0.18,0.11,0.05,0.06,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0	94.6%
CHI 103, MEM 97	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.43,0.47,0.47,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.54,0.53,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.44,0.32,0.31,0.31,0.33,0.33,0.27,0.26,0.28,0.3,0.27,0.21,0.2,0.17,0.16,0.21,0.33,0.29,0.22,0.19,0.12,0.17,0.07,0.1,0.16,0.13,0.05,0.07,0.03,0.04,0	94.4%