NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	101		Excitement	3.2 [1125]		MVP	Michael Finley (DAL): +9.9%
Chicago Bulls	95		Comeback	1.0 [884]		LVP	Elton Brand (CHI): -9.0%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Michael Finley	0.10	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.08,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.11,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.01	0.01	21	62%	0.11	1	-0.01	6	100%	0.02
Damon Jones	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05	-0.02	0.02	-0.05	13	46%	0.05	1	0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Shawn Bradley	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.05	0.00	0.01	2	100%	0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Cedric Ceballos	0.03	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.00	0.00	-0.03	13	50%	0.04	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
Dirk Nowitzki	0.02	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	-0.00	10	69%	0.05	3	-0.03	6	83%	0.01
Sean Rooks	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.05	0.00	-0.04	8	35%	-0.01	1	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01
Rick Hughes	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.05	0.00	-0.03	7	44%	-0.01	2	-0.02	2	50%	-0.00
Hubert Davis	-0.06	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06	-0.09	0.00	-0.03	10	30%	-0.05	1	-0.01	3	0%	-0.02

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Metta World Peace	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.07	0.00	0.05	13	71%	0.05	3	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Randy Brown	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.01	0.00	0.01	8	71%	0.05	3	-0.05	1	0%	-0.01
Michael Ruffin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.04	0.00	-0.03	4	40%	-0.00	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
Chris Anstey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.06	0.01	-0.03	11	41%	-0.03	1	-0.00	5	100%	0.01
Dedric Willoughby	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.08	0.00	-0.05	13	40%	-0.00	2	-0.04	4	100%	0.01
Kornel David	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	0.00	-0.01	6	29%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Hersey Hawkins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.06	0.00	-0.02	4	30%	-0.03	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Dickey Simpkins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.08	0.00	-0.03	7	28%	-0.05	0	0.00	4	25%	-0.01
Corey Benjamin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.02	-0.00	0.05	9	45%	-0.07	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.03
Will Perdue	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.08	0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.05	1	-0.02	2	0%	-0.03
Elton Brand	0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.11,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.10	-0.00	-0.01	11	47%	-0.04	3	-0.05	8	75%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.6	2.5	27.2	15.8	25.3	1.6	40.0	134.0
league avg	26.0	2.2	28.8	16.5	26.3	2.2	33.7	137.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +35.6%

DAL +3.2%

CHI -3.4%

DAL +14.0%

DAL +0.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	CHI	NBA	DAL	CHI	NBA
this game	14.7	15.7	15.2	106.3	101.1	101.7
season	14.8	16.5		104.2	91.8
opponent	14.9	14.8		102.3	104.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DAL	15.0	13.4	14.8	15.7	14.7
CHI	17.7	15.9	18.8	11.4	15.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Michael Finley	95	93	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.34	5	1	4	14.7	0.0	14.75	15.7	22.0	-6.33
Hubert Davis	82	81	0.42	0.08	0.33	0.27	5	1	4	14.5	16.2	-1.72	16.2	12.5	3.71
Cedric Ceballos	58	59	0.40	0.10	0.29	0.10	10	-4	14	15.9	12.9	3.04	16.4	14.5	1.90
Dirk Nowitzki	62	60	0.30	0.20	0.11	0.22	3	3	0	15.4	13.5	1.98	15.6	15.9	-0.23
Rick Hughes	50	50	0.24	0.26	-0.02	0.27	-1	7	-8	13.4	16.2	-2.76	14.3	17.4	-3.15
Damon Jones	53	51	0.23	0.27	-0.04	0.29	-2	8	-10	14.5	15.1	-0.58	14.3	17.4	-3.06
Shawn Bradley	41	43	0.22	0.28	-0.06	-0.01	8	-2	10	16.1	13.7	2.38	17.2	14.5	2.68
Sean Rooks	34	33	0.20	0.30	-0.10	0.14	2	4	-2	12.7	15.9	-3.13	16.1	15.6	0.50

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Corey Benjamin	35	35	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	-0.34	9	-15	24	15.5	15.9	-0.40	15.1	14.6	0.49
Michael Ruffin	20	17	-0.10	-0.40	0.31	-0.04	-2	-4	2	18.3	15.0	3.26	15.2	14.7	0.52
Chris Anstey	44	46	-0.10	-0.40	0.31	-0.48	13	-19	32	13.7	17.6	-3.90	14.2	15.3	-1.07
Will Perdue	15	14	-0.15	-0.35	0.21	0.00	-5	-1	-4	16.2	15.6	0.55	14.0	14.9	-0.88
Dedric Willoughby	51	54	-0.23	-0.27	0.03	-0.32	3	-9	12	14.6	17.0	-2.42	14.8	14.7	0.03
Elton Brand	61	64	-0.27	-0.23	-0.03	-0.35	3	-9	12	14.9	17.3	-2.37	14.7	14.9	-0.18
Kornel David	32	31	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	0.11	-13	7	-20	17.8	14.7	3.15	15.9	14.2	1.76
Dickey Simpkins	40	40	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	0.14	-14	8	-22	17.3	14.6	2.73	15.0	14.5	0.48
Randy Brown	50	48	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	0.11	-14	8	-22	17.3	13.9	3.43	15.0	14.5	0.51
Hersey Hawkins	71	74	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.48	4	-10	14	14.7	19.0	-4.32	14.5	15.6	-1.12
Metta World Peace	51	52	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	0.03	-14	8	-22	16.0	15.4	0.62	14.3	15.2	-0.89

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.42,0.45,0.41,0.37,0.37,0.39,0.37,0.33,0.33,0.29,0.28,0.26,0.26,0.18,0.15,0.14,0.2,0.16,0.12,0.11,0.09,0.1,0.07,0.09,0.06,0.07,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.08,0.05,0.06,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
SAS 95, ATL 83	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.44,0.35,0.34,0.35,0.33,0.31,0.27,0.32,0.3,0.24,0.21,0.17,0.13,0.14,0.19,0.19,0.16,0.1,0.11,0.09,0.08,0.12,0.05,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0	96.8%
MIL 98, MIA 83	0.5,0.51,0.45,0.43,0.45,0.46,0.44,0.38,0.39,0.35,0.37,0.38,0.29,0.32,0.26,0.28,0.23,0.19,0.15,0.11,0.14,0.12,0.11,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.03,0.08,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0	96.8%
DET 90, CHA 86	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.46,0.36,0.35,0.39,0.37,0.35,0.36,0.34,0.28,0.3,0.22,0.21,0.23,0.2,0.18,0.19,0.13,0.1,0.13,0.09,0.07,0.1,0.07,0.06,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.08,0	96.8%