NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	96		Excitement	9.3 [96]		MVP	Keon Clark (DEN): +4.1%
Denver Nuggets	100		Comeback	2.3 [506]		LVP	Christian Laettner (DET): -23.0%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Don Reid	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Grant Hill	-0.01	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.12,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,-0.01	0.09	-0.09	0.01	21	66%	0.04	2	-0.05	17	76%	0.03
Terry Mills	-0.01	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.01	4	62%	0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jerome Williams	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jud Buechler	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	2	0%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Curry	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	4	25%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
John Crotty	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.06	-0.00	0.00	4	0%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Lindsey Hunter	-0.08	0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.09,0.09,0.09,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08	0.04	-0.13	-0.00	9	75%	0.06	3	-0.14	2	100%	0.02
Jerry Stackhouse	-0.20	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.08,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.17,-0.17,-0.24,-0.2,-0.2	-0.17	-0.04	-0.02	10	48%	0.06	7	-0.26	9	89%	0.16
Christian Laettner	-0.23	0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.16,-0.18,-0.18,-0.16,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.12,-0.12,-0.23,-0.23	-0.09	-0.15	-0.01	14	51%	-0.08	4	-0.15	9	56%	-0.06

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Keon Clark	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.03	0.01	0.00	1	100%	0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Nick Van Exel	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.01	-0.04	-0.04	5	64%	-0.02	1	0.03	1	100%	0.00
George McCloud	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.08,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	0.00	5	71%	0.09	2	-0.10	7	71%	-0.03
Bryant Stith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ryan Bowen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
James Posey	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.01	2	50%	0.00	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Ron Mercer	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,0.09,-0.07	-0.07	-0.01	-0.05	0.01	18	57%	0.18	4	-0.24	4	100%	0.05
Chauncey Billups	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.01,-0.01,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.08	-0.01	-0.02	9	43%	0.01	3	-0.09	3	100%	0.03
Antonio McDyess	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.01	-0.07	0.01	17	57%	0.01	3	-0.10	8	75%	0.02
Raef LaFrentz	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19	-0.19	-0.02	-0.17	0.00	15	54%	-0.10	3	-0.09	5	40%	-0.09

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.2	2.5	28.3	15.7	31.1	1.4	41.0	143.2
league avg	26.0	2.2	28.8	16.5	26.3	2.2	33.7	137.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +41.8%

DET -17.3%

DEN +44.2%

DET -16.4%

DET -2.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	DEN	NBA	DET	DEN	NBA
this game	14.1	15.6	15.2	99.0	103.1	101.7
season	14.1	14.8		104.2	101.5
opponent	15.0	15.3		103.7	103.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	13.3	12.8	15.3	15.0	14.1
DEN	15.0	16.0	16.7	15.0	15.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Don Reid	6	7	0.29	-0.79	1.07	0.35	-2	-2	0	11.8	14.2	-2.36	18.3	15.4	2.85
Jud Buechler	8	8	0.14	-0.64	0.78	0.03	4	-8	12	17.5	13.7	3.76	15.7	15.6	0.12
Jerome Williams	33	32	0.13	-0.63	0.75	0.18	-2	-2	0	14.9	13.6	1.25	14.8	16.1	-1.28
John Crotty	21	21	0.03	-0.53	0.56	0.12	-3	-1	-2	16.1	13.5	2.67	14.4	16.0	-1.55
Michael Curry	51	49	-0.43	-0.07	-0.35	-0.16	-9	5	-14	14.0	14.2	-0.19	15.2	16.1	-0.84
Grant Hill	82	81	-0.45	-0.05	-0.39	-0.45	0	-4	4	13.7	15.9	-2.15	15.8	14.7	1.06
Lindsey Hunter	76	76	-0.53	0.03	-0.56	-0.50	-1	-3	2	13.5	16.1	-2.67	16.0	14.4	1.55
Jerry Stackhouse	76	77	-0.53	0.03	-0.57	-0.48	-2	-2	0	13.6	15.7	-2.06	15.6	15.6	0.05
Christian Laettner	77	78	-0.57	0.07	-0.64	-0.45	-4	0	-4	14.8	11.3	3.40	15.4	16.4	-0.97
Terry Mills	55	56	-0.58	0.08	-0.66	-0.55	-1	-3	2	13.5	14.8	-1.25	16.1	15.0	1.19

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Antonio McDyess	66	67	0.51	-0.01	0.52	0.42	3	1	2	15.5	15.9	-0.34	14.0	14.1	-0.12
Raef LaFrentz	87	87	0.51	-0.01	0.52	0.39	4	0	4	15.7	15.1	0.60	14.1	13.7	0.39
Chauncey Billups	63	62	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.26	8	-4	12	15.7	15.5	0.21	14.8	12.7	2.18
Ron Mercer	77	77	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.42	0	4	-4	15.9	14.7	1.18	13.6	15.7	-2.08
Keon Clark	46	46	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.25	3	1	2	15.1	16.1	-0.97	14.3	13.8	0.48
George McCloud	57	56	0.25	0.25	-0.00	0.04	7	-3	10	15.3	16.1	-0.83	14.2	13.9	0.26
Bryant Stith	13	13	0.08	0.42	-0.33	-0.03	4	0	4	15.2	15.7	-0.47	15.4	13.8	1.54
Ryan Bowen	17	16	0.07	0.42	-0.35	0.05	1	3	-2	17.2	15.3	1.86	14.7	13.9	0.84
Nick Van Exel	35	36	-0.06	0.56	-0.62	0.06	-4	8	-12	15.7	15.6	0.07	12.3	15.1	-2.78
James Posey	24	25	-0.12	0.62	-0.74	0.05	-6	10	-16	15.6	15.7	-0.07	14.0	14.1	-0.02

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.4,0.39,0.47,0.51,0.49,0.43,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.6,0.61,0.64,0.66,0.56,0.56,0.61,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.55,0.36,0.42,0.45,0.49,0.59,0.56,0.52,0.48,0.62,0.48,0.43,0.47,0.32,0.36,0.53,0.53,0.47,0.64,0.86,0.85,1
Game		Similarity Score
CHH 87, LAL 93	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.46,0.44,0.47,0.49,0.43,0.47,0.4,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.6,0.6,0.65,0.56,0.56,0.61,0.59,0.58,0.63,0.61,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.48,0.45,0.42,0.32,0.35,0.54,0.52,0.6,0.68,0.54,0.62,0.57,0.43,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.53,0.47,0.71,0.78,0.98,1	92.0%
TOR 82, PHX 90	0.5,0.49,0.43,0.41,0.4,0.39,0.37,0.38,0.39,0.43,0.46,0.4,0.44,0.5,0.53,0.56,0.58,0.6,0.63,0.7,0.7,0.74,0.67,0.64,0.59,0.58,0.59,0.55,0.58,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.45,0.41,0.44,0.44,0.52,0.42,0.43,0.48,0.34,0.42,0.47,0.59,0.47,0.47,0.71,0.94,1,1	91.9%
CHI 80, TOR 87	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.52,0.49,0.54,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.58,0.57,0.58,0.6,0.54,0.42,0.45,0.53,0.49,0.49,0.56,0.54,0.54,0.49,0.46,0.41,0.5,0.46,0.51,0.48,0.52,0.45,0.48,0.59,0.62,0.6,0.63,0.6,0.62,0.57,0.57,0.46,0.47,0.36,0.41,0.47,0.62,0.63,0.89,0.96,1	91.3%