NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	93		Excitement	8.9 [129]		MVP	Kevin Willis (TOR): +17.1%
Phoenix Suns	94		Comeback	73.6 [19]		LVP	Vince Carter (TOR): -31.5%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kevin Willis	0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.12,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.05	0.12	-0.00	13	57%	0.17	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Dee Brown	0.16	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.16,0.16	0.08	0.11	0.02	8	75%	0.19	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Muggsy Bogues	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.02	0.03	-0.00	3	67%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Charles Oakley	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	6	50%	0.02	2	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Dell Curry	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.08,-0.08,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	-0.00	7	36%	0.01	2	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Tracy McGrady	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.07	-0.05	-0.01	10	41%	-0.06	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.02
Antonio Davis	-0.14	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.07	-0.07	0.00	9	55%	-0.00	4	-0.13	4	100%	0.02
Doug Christie	-0.31	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.31	-0.12	-0.19	-0.01	10	38%	-0.21	3	-0.10	6	67%	-0.15
Vince Carter	-0.31	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.07,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,-0.04,-0.16,-0.15,-0.31	-0.08	-0.24	-0.01	23	41%	-0.23	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00

Phoenix Suns
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Anfernee Hardaway	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12	0.12	0.05	0.09	0.02	10	71%	0.18	2	-0.06	4	100%	0.02
Oliver Miller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.02	-0.00	6	67%	0.08	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Jason Kidd	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.06,-0.14,-0.13,0.02	0.02	-0.04	0.07	0.01	13	47%	0.06	1	-0.03	8	100%	0.22
Rex Chapman	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.01	0.00	3	67%	0.06	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Randy Livingston	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	0	100%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Todd Day	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Clifford Robinson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	0.00	-0.00	9	50%	0.02	2	-0.06	4	75%	0.00
Luc Longley	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.06	-0.03	-0.01	2	50%	0.01	3	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Shawn Marion	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.10	-0.02	-0.03	7	14%	-0.05	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Tom Gugliotta	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.16,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.10	-0.06	-0.01	14	50%	0.03	5	-0.18	4	50%	-0.05
Rodney Rogers	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.02	-0.14	0.01	10	64%	-0.02	4	-0.14	2	0%	-0.07

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.5	2.7	27.1	15.6	24.0	1.6	41.5	135.9
league avg	26.0	2.2	28.8	16.5	26.3	2.2	33.7	137.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

PHX +17.5%

PHX +71.6%

TOR -23.0%

TOR -15.9%

TOR -0.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	PHX	NBA	TOR	PHX	NBA
this game	15.4	14.2	15.2	94.9	96.9	101.7
season	15.5	14.8		101.8	101.4
opponent	15.3	14.9		96.8	102.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
TOR	14.0	15.0	14.6	18.6	15.4
PHX	14.8	13.8	12.6	15.7	14.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tracy McGrady	53	51	0.32	-0.81	1.12	0.32	0	-1	1	16.1	14.5	1.64	15.2	13.0	2.15
Kevin Willis	47	48	0.15	-0.64	0.79	0.06	3	-4	7	16.4	14.4	2.01	15.0	13.3	1.63
Dell Curry	35	35	0.03	-0.52	0.56	-0.06	3	-4	7	15.9	15.1	0.79	14.6	13.9	0.74
Antonio Davis	85	83	0.03	-0.52	0.55	-0.21	8	-9	17	15.8	12.3	3.54	14.3	13.4	0.93
Dee Brown	50	51	-0.15	-0.34	0.19	0.02	-6	5	-11	14.5	16.2	-1.71	13.2	15.2	-2.06
Muggsy Bogues	41	40	-0.38	-0.11	-0.27	-0.59	7	-8	15	17.2	14.1	3.17	15.4	13.3	2.12
Vince Carter	66	65	-0.82	0.32	-1.14	-0.64	-6	5	-11	14.9	16.3	-1.43	13.8	14.9	-1.17
Charles Oakley	59	57	-0.82	0.32	-1.14	-0.58	-8	7	-15	14.2	17.2	-3.04	13.2	15.4	-2.20
Doug Christie	54	55	-0.82	0.33	-1.15	-0.65	-6	5	-11	13.9	17.2	-3.23	13.4	15.2	-1.78

Phoenix Suns
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Clifford Robinson	46	49	0.83	-0.34	1.17	0.51	11	-10	21	13.8	14.5	-0.67	14.5	16.2	-1.73
Oliver Miller	46	44	0.56	-0.07	0.62	0.56	0	1	-1	15.0	13.4	1.61	16.3	14.6	1.71
Jason Kidd	92	92	0.54	-0.05	0.59	0.45	3	-2	5	14.1	16.0	-1.95	15.4	15.0	0.40
Anfernee Hardaway	59	61	0.48	0.01	0.47	0.39	3	-2	5	14.5	13.7	0.82	16.2	14.1	2.08
Rex Chapman	24	23	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.37	-3	4	-7	14.6	14.0	0.57	14.0	15.8	-1.80
Tom Gugliotta	69	70	0.08	0.41	-0.33	-0.10	6	-5	11	14.1	14.4	-0.33	15.7	14.7	0.98
Luc Longley	33	33	0.03	0.47	-0.44	0.12	-3	4	-7	12.9	14.8	-1.93	14.6	15.8	-1.21
Shawn Marion	39	38	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	0.14	-6	7	-13	13.7	14.5	-0.77	14.7	15.8	-1.13
Randy Livingston	5	6	-0.05	0.54	-0.59	0.01	-2	3	-5	16.0	14.1	1.95	15.0	15.4	-0.40
Todd Day	15	16	-0.06	0.55	-0.61	-0.06	0	1	-1	14.7	14.1	0.61	14.5	15.5	-1.05
Rodney Rogers	57	57	-0.36	0.85	-1.21	-0.24	-4	5	-9	14.3	14.0	0.31	16.2	14.2	1.95

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.5,0.57,0.51,0.47,0.45,0.43,0.43,0.4,0.42,0.4,0.42,0.4,0.36,0.31,0.39,0.37,0.34,0.26,0.33,0.33,0.36,0.33,0.35,0.46,0.48,0.42,0.45,0.45,0.55,0.44,0.52,0.6,0.56,0.62,0.62,0.43,0.38,0.15,0.17,0.34,0.22,0.25,0.29,0.23,0.03,1
Game		Similarity Score
BOS 91, CHA 94	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.45,0.47,0.45,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.47,0.38,0.31,0.35,0.34,0.36,0.39,0.39,0.36,0.39,0.33,0.45,0.46,0.39,0.36,0.45,0.58,0.55,0.59,0.59,0.63,0.6,0.62,0.7,0.62,0.42,0.37,0.31,0.24,0.29,0.47,0.28,0.16,0.26,1	91.4%
MIL 110, CHH 113	0.5,0.51,0.45,0.46,0.52,0.63,0.63,0.6,0.61,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.47,0.4,0.38,0.45,0.44,0.33,0.35,0.24,0.25,0.2,0.18,0.25,0.25,0.33,0.31,0.42,0.55,0.48,0.36,0.38,0.52,0.48,0.66,0.74,0.75,0.7,0.7,0.53,0.33,0.28,0.26,0.39,0.39,0.32,0.15,0.16,0.26,1	90.8%
SAC 108, CHA 111	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.55,0.54,0.52,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.43,0.47,0.4,0.52,0.49,0.42,0.4,0.42,0.46,0.47,0.41,0.36,0.34,0.28,0.39,0.37,0.46,0.46,0.48,0.42,0.42,0.35,0.32,0.31,0.44,0.52,0.48,0.58,0.57,0.48,0.38,0.42,0.41,0.24,0.28,0.31,0.28,0.15,0.27,1	90.8%