NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	98		Excitement	8.0 [249]		MVP	Alonzo Mourning (MIA): +8.1%
Philadelphia 76ers	93		Comeback	1.3 [716]		LVP	Allen Iverson (PHI): -27.6%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Alonzo Mourning	0.08	0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.04	0.04	-0.00	18	63%	0.15	3	-0.07	7	71%	0.00
P.J. Brown	0.07	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.07,0.07	0.05	0.03	0.00	4	79%	0.07	0	0.00	6	50%	-0.09
Duane Causwell	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	67%	0.01	1	-0.04	1	0%	-0.03
Voshon Lenard	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03	-0.05	0.01	-0.01	8	43%	-0.01	1	-0.02	5	100%	0.04
Tim Hardaway	-0.04	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15,-0.11,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.07	0.03	0.00	20	40%	-0.02	1	-0.02	3	33%	-0.03
Mark Strickland	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.01	5	25%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Rodney Buford	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.02,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.02	-0.06	-0.00	6	42%	-0.04	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Dan Majerle	-0.10	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.03	-0.06	0.01	4	56%	-0.03	2	-0.07	1	0%	-0.02
Jamal Mashburn	-0.14	0,0,0.02,0.01,0,0,0.02,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.18,-0.17,-0.14	-0.10	-0.06	-0.03	16	51%	0.01	6	-0.15	5	100%	0.02

Philadelphia 76ers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Larry Hughes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.03	0.03	0.00	9	62%	0.08	1	-0.03	3	100%	0.03
Aaron McKie	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.01	-0.01	0.01	6	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bruce Bowen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Stanley Roberts	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	0.00	-0.00	3	25%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
George Lynch	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05	-0.05	0.05	-0.09	0.02	16	62%	-0.03	1	-0.02	10	80%	-0.01
Billy Owens	0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	0.00	11	42%	-0.02	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Eric Snow	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.07	-0.03	0.00	2	25%	-0.08	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.02
Theo Ratliff	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.17	-0.17	-0.07	-0.08	0.02	13	34%	-0.17	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.01
Allen Iverson	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.17,-0.22,-0.22,-0.19,-0.22,-0.2,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.18,-0.25,-0.27,-0.32,-0.32,-0.32,-0.34,-0.34,-0.29,-0.23,-0.29,-0.28	-0.28	-0.19	-0.08	0.00	27	37%	-0.18	3	-0.10	10	70%	-0.05

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.4	2.6	30.0	14.8	28.3	2.7	45.0	148.7
league avg	26.0	2.2	28.8	16.5	26.3	2.2	33.7	137.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +58.4%

PHI -4.4%

MIA +16.0%

PHI -25.2%

MIA +5.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	PHI	NBA	MIA	PHI	NBA
this game	15.9	15.6	15.2	105.4	103.3	101.7
season	15.7	15.0		101.2	99.5
opponent	15.5	15.9		98.1	98.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	14.9	15.8	17.9	15.2	15.9
PHI	15.8	17.7	14.8	14.2	15.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
P.J. Brown	46	44	0.89	-0.39	1.28	0.39	17	-12	29	14.7	17.1	-2.37	16.4	14.8	1.63
Alonzo Mourning	75	73	0.61	-0.11	0.73	0.38	8	-3	11	16.0	15.6	0.42	16.1	13.3	2.82
Tim Hardaway	82	78	0.48	0.02	0.46	0.36	4	1	3	15.8	16.5	-0.64	15.7	15.1	0.57
Dan Majerle	61	59	0.26	0.24	0.01	0.34	-3	8	-11	16.3	15.1	1.17	14.9	16.8	-1.83
Voshon Lenard	45	43	0.17	0.33	-0.16	0.08	3	2	1	15.8	16.0	-0.27	15.4	15.8	-0.39
Rodney Buford	26	26	0.17	0.33	-0.17	0.02	5	0	5	16.0	15.8	0.20	15.7	15.5	0.22
Jamal Mashburn	83	81	0.14	0.36	-0.22	0.23	-3	8	-11	15.7	17.9	-2.25	15.2	19.0	-3.80
Mark Strickland	31	31	0.02	0.48	-0.47	-0.04	2	3	-1	16.0	15.9	0.11	15.8	15.4	0.40
Duane Causwell	16	15	-0.23	0.73	-0.96	0.00	-8	13	-21	19.1	15.2	3.83	14.5	15.8	-1.33

Philadelphia 76ers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Stanley Roberts	15	16	0.10	-0.60	0.70	0.07	1	-6	7	17.4	15.2	2.19	15.2	16.0	-0.78
Aaron McKie	32	33	0.03	-0.53	0.56	-0.03	2	-7	9	17.0	14.8	2.21	16.0	15.8	0.17
Billy Owens	61	64	-0.07	-0.43	0.35	-0.22	5	-10	15	15.5	15.7	-0.11	15.5	16.9	-1.41
Bruce Bowen	3	3	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	0.10	-6	1	-7	26.0	15.2	10.78	10.0	16.1	-6.09
Larry Hughes	44	48	-0.38	-0.12	-0.27	-0.24	-5	0	-5	14.8	16.3	-1.49	15.5	16.3	-0.81
George Lynch	76	79	-0.42	-0.08	-0.35	-0.25	-6	1	-7	15.3	17.3	-2.02	16.9	10.4	6.43
Theo Ratliff	76	77	-0.48	-0.02	-0.47	-0.43	-2	-3	1	15.3	16.9	-1.60	16.0	15.4	0.63
Eric Snow	62	64	-0.57	0.07	-0.63	-0.33	-8	3	-11	15.3	16.1	-0.82	15.5	16.8	-1.26
Allen Iverson	81	81	-0.62	0.12	-0.73	-0.44	-6	1	-7	15.5	16.7	-1.21	16.0	14.9	1.12

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.44,0.42,0.36,0.41,0.39,0.38,0.43,0.39,0.4,0.38,0.36,0.37,0.4,0.34,0.33,0.31,0.33,0.32,0.23,0.2,0.16,0.21,0.3,0.3,0.35,0.25,0.25,0.27,0.19,0.26,0.35,0.34,0.24,0.22,0.32,0.38,0.48,0.48,0.33,0.32,0.31,0.29,0.33,0.25,0.17,0.23,0.03,0
Game		Similarity Score
SAS 106, MIA 99	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.48,0.45,0.41,0.4,0.41,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.43,0.45,0.37,0.38,0.3,0.25,0.25,0.2,0.18,0.16,0.17,0.16,0.23,0.3,0.27,0.24,0.2,0.22,0.17,0.24,0.35,0.38,0.41,0.24,0.3,0.28,0.3,0.38,0.43,0.38,0.27,0.41,0.29,0.46,0.38,0.21,0.22,0.05,0	93.4%
LAL 101, NOH 95	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.45,0.41,0.41,0.35,0.37,0.35,0.32,0.34,0.38,0.34,0.36,0.4,0.37,0.32,0.34,0.31,0.26,0.2,0.25,0.33,0.29,0.34,0.28,0.27,0.24,0.26,0.32,0.38,0.41,0.37,0.29,0.54,0.57,0.53,0.43,0.37,0.41,0.41,0.28,0.39,0.21,0.06,0.02,0	92.7%
TOR 95, ATL 88	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.45,0.38,0.4,0.42,0.36,0.4,0.37,0.38,0.36,0.4,0.38,0.38,0.36,0.35,0.35,0.34,0.36,0.36,0.29,0.36,0.39,0.37,0.31,0.25,0.27,0.17,0.12,0.15,0.22,0.21,0.23,0.26,0.28,0.38,0.38,0.25,0.24,0.27,0.31,0.29,0.33,0.19,0.29,0.22,0.04,0	92.6%