NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	111		Excitement	6.7 [478]		MVP	Terry Mills (DET): +17.1%
Milwaukee Bucks	121		Comeback	15.4 [155]		LVP	Grant Hill (DET): -30.2%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Terry Mills	0.17	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.07,0.12,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.17,0.17	0.15	0.02	0.00	8	89%	0.17	0	0.00	3	100%	0.01
Christian Laettner	0.09	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.06	0.06	0.03	11	75%	0.19	3	-0.10	2	100%	0.02
Michael Curry	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	-0.01	0.04	-0.04	8	65%	0.13	3	-0.06	4	75%	0.01
Jerome Williams	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	4	60%	0.01	2	-0.05	2	0%	-0.03
Lindsey Hunter	-0.05	0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	0.00	-0.06	-0.01	14	52%	0.03	2	-0.08	1	100%	0.00
Marcus Brown	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	3	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jerry Stackhouse	-0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.02	-0.02	0.01	11	59%	0.02	2	-0.07	12	67%	-0.02
Jud Buechler	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.01	-0.02	0.04	4	50%	-0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Grant Hill	-0.30	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.26,-0.3,-0.3,-0.3,-0.3	-0.17	-0.14	-0.01	20	43%	-0.08	7	-0.22	2	50%	-0.02

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ray Allen	0,0,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.07,0.16,0.16,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.06	0.15	0.04	19	58%	0.19	1	-0.03	7	100%	0.09
Sam Cassell	0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.01,0,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.10	0.05	0.01	16	70%	0.20	2	-0.06	8	87%	0.02
Dale Ellis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.06	0.06	0.00	8	72%	0.14	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.02
Danny Manning	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.00	-0.03	9	59%	0.04	1	-0.00	4	75%	0.01
Glenn Robinson	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.04	0.01	0.01	13	58%	0.06	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Vinny Del Negro	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.00	0.03	-0.01	5	45%	0.03	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Haywoode Workman	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.03	0.01	2	83%	0.07	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.00
Robert Traylor	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.03	-0.00	0.01	4	78%	0.04	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.01
Tim Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	7	36%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
J.R. Reid	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.04	-0.06	0.01	6	33%	-0.04	1	-0.07	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.2	1.7	31.3	15.5	24.3	1.5	37.5	137.0
league avg	26.0	2.2	28.8	16.5	26.3	2.2	33.7	137.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +19.5%

MIL +7.5%

DET -11.1%

MIL +40.7%

DET -6.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	MIL	NBA	DET	MIL	NBA
this game	13.8	14.7	15.2	109.9	119.8	101.7
season	14.1	14.9		104.2	105.5
opponent	15.4	15.3		105.1	103.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	13.8	12.5	14.7	14.2	13.8
MIL	15.5	15.8	13.6	14.0	14.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Terry Mills	50	51	0.04	-0.54	0.58	0.07	-1	-9	8	14.4	13.2	1.20	15.6	13.7	1.91
Jerome Williams	23	24	-0.10	-0.40	0.29	0.10	-7	-3	-4	12.2	14.3	-2.06	13.6	15.0	-1.41
Marcus Brown	14	14	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	0.02	-5	-5	0	13.6	13.8	-0.20	13.2	14.9	-1.73
Christian Laettner	82	82	-0.21	-0.29	0.09	-0.32	4	-14	18	13.6	14.6	-0.94	15.5	11.5	3.98
Jud Buechler	43	41	-0.25	-0.25	0.00	0.02	-9	-1	-8	14.6	13.2	1.34	13.1	15.8	-2.74
Jerry Stackhouse	83	83	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.15	-5	-5	0	14.0	12.8	1.19	15.5	11.1	4.37
Lindsey Hunter	75	77	-0.39	-0.11	-0.29	-0.19	-7	-3	-4	13.6	14.3	-0.67	15.0	13.7	1.30
Grant Hill	80	80	-0.48	-0.02	-0.47	-0.34	-5	-5	0	13.2	16.0	-2.70	14.9	13.8	1.19
Michael Curry	55	53	-0.69	0.19	-0.88	-0.25	-15	5	-20	14.4	13.2	1.21	12.7	16.9	-4.14

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dale Ellis	58	59	0.75	-0.25	1.01	0.20	19	-9	28	13.9	15.7	-1.81	14.9	12.3	2.53
Glenn Robinson	67	67	0.75	-0.25	1.01	0.25	17	-7	24	14.2	15.6	-1.42	14.5	12.4	2.11
Ray Allen	67	68	0.52	-0.02	0.53	0.16	12	-2	14	14.7	14.7	0.04	13.1	15.2	-2.12
Danny Manning	59	57	0.46	0.04	0.43	0.20	9	1	8	13.9	15.8	-1.89	13.5	14.2	-0.78
Sam Cassell	70	70	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.06	9	1	8	14.5	15.2	-0.71	13.1	15.4	-2.23
Haywoode Workman	34	34	0.18	0.32	-0.14	0.15	1	9	-8	14.3	14.9	-0.57	14.9	13.3	1.57
Vinny Del Negro	33	32	0.07	0.43	-0.35	-0.04	4	6	-2	14.2	15.0	-0.82	14.7	13.4	1.28
J.R. Reid	55	56	-0.13	0.63	-0.75	-0.01	-4	14	-18	16.2	12.9	3.25	13.3	14.5	-1.22
Robert Traylor	33	34	-0.16	0.66	-0.83	0.01	-6	16	-22	15.8	14.2	1.61	13.4	14.0	-0.65
Tim Thomas	29	28	-0.27	0.77	-1.04	0.05	-11	21	-32	16.5	14.0	2.50	13.3	14.0	-0.68

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.56,0.57,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.54,0.54,0.48,0.4,0.47,0.42,0.42,0.49,0.42,0.29,0.34,0.23,0.26,0.22,0.22,0.19,0.14,0.13,0.27,0.14,0.08,0.09,0.1,0.15,0.26,0.29,0.42,0.34,0.29,0.33,0.47,0.64,0.76,0.6,0.93,0.97,0.98,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
CLE 93, MEM 98	0.5,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.5,0.44,0.48,0.47,0.43,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.42,0.48,0.51,0.47,0.43,0.42,0.4,0.35,0.32,0.34,0.34,0.28,0.3,0.2,0.23,0.23,0.2,0.22,0.16,0.14,0.17,0.24,0.18,0.29,0.44,0.42,0.3,0.38,0.48,0.42,0.59,0.65,0.83,0.81,0.89,0.85,1,1	92.1%
GSW 89, PHX 102	0.5,0.51,0.5,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.4,0.34,0.4,0.44,0.46,0.44,0.42,0.44,0.42,0.39,0.25,0.3,0.19,0.18,0.2,0.24,0.24,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.16,0.13,0.22,0.22,0.34,0.48,0.56,0.53,0.71,0.73,0.81,0.97,0.99,1,1	91.9%
NYK 86, CHH 93	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.42,0.43,0.45,0.47,0.51,0.55,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.44,0.4,0.38,0.42,0.46,0.51,0.42,0.31,0.31,0.33,0.25,0.33,0.26,0.31,0.2,0.22,0.14,0.21,0.17,0.18,0.26,0.23,0.25,0.42,0.43,0.43,0.43,0.53,0.64,0.6,0.73,0.68,0.79,0.97,0.91,1	91.3%