NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	92		Excitement	7.0 [240]		MVP	Grant Hill (DET): +14.8%
Boston Celtics	85		Comeback	26.3 [30]		LVP	Ron Mercer (BOS): -24.5%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Grant Hill	0.15	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.01,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.15	0.03	0.11	-0.01	20	58%	0.17	1	-0.02	15	53%	-0.03
Jerome Williams	0.14	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.08	0.06	0.01	15	62%	0.14	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Jud Buechler	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.13	0.06	0.06	-0.01	4	100%	0.16	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jerry Stackhouse	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	-0.00	-0.01	7	29%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eric Montross	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	0.00	0	0%	0.00	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Christian Laettner	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.02	-0.00	5	40%	-0.02	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Bison Dele	-0.08	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.09	-0.01	-0.02	6	37%	-0.04	2	-0.03	4	50%	-0.04
Don Reid	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	1	60%	-0.00	2	-0.08	3	33%	-0.02
Lindsey Hunter	-0.13	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.17,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.09,-0.13,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.08	-0.03	0.01	13	42%	-0.05	2	-0.08	5	100%	0.04
Joe Dumars	-0.23	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.23	-0.17	-0.08	-0.01	2	17%	-0.03	6	-0.20	2	50%	0.00

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Damon Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.03	0.01	-0.03	7	71%	0.09	2	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Eric Riley	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marlon Garnett	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Battie	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.01	-0.00	0.01	6	67%	0.04	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Greg Minor	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.06	0.00	-0.03	4	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Paul Pierce	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.1,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.2,0.17,0.13,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	0.05	-0.11	-0.01	15	64%	0.17	3	-0.21	3	67%	-0.01
Dana Barros	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.1,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07	-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	-0.00	8	55%	-0.02	3	-0.05	6	67%	-0.02
Vitaly Potapenko	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21	-0.21	-0.15	-0.07	-0.00	4	36%	-0.14	4	-0.08	6	17%	-0.14
Walter McCarty	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.22,-0.2,-0.24	-0.24	-0.09	-0.15	0.00	13	55%	-0.01	6	-0.23	5	80%	0.04
Ron Mercer	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.24	-0.24	-0.19	-0.07	-0.02	16	33%	-0.12	5	-0.12	4	100%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.4	2.4	27.6	16.5	31.4	2.2	45.1	146.6
league avg	26.9	3.0	42.0	16.0	26.3	2.2	45.7	163.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DET +24.3%

DET +13.9%

BOS -3.4%

DET +16.4%

BOS -1.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	BOS	NBA	DET	BOS	NBA
this game	16.8	14.7	15.8	101.1	92.4	99.6
season	16.6	15.0		101.4	98.1
opponent	15.8	16.1		100.0	97.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	17.3	19.1	17.7	13.2	16.8
BOS	12.7	14.5	13.0	18.9	14.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Joe Dumars	70	70	0.91	-0.41	1.31	0.26	22	-15	37	16.3	18.6	-2.36	16.3	9.5	6.75
Bison Dele	42	45	0.88	-0.38	1.25	0.32	19	-12	31	16.2	17.3	-1.09	16.1	13.3	2.75
Lindsey Hunter	76	76	0.67	-0.17	0.84	0.26	14	-7	21	16.4	18.6	-2.15	15.2	12.0	3.25
Grant Hill	83	84	0.53	-0.03	0.56	-0.03	19	-12	31	17.0	14.9	2.11	14.8	13.1	1.71
Jud Buechler	32	35	0.40	0.10	0.31	0.49	-3	10	-13	14.3	18.1	-3.79	15.1	14.4	0.65
Jerome Williams	67	66	0.11	0.39	-0.27	0.11	0	7	-7	16.7	17.0	-0.21	14.1	16.2	-2.05
Eric Montross	9	9	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	0.04	-3	10	-13	20.9	16.4	4.54	12.1	15.0	-2.85
Don Reid	21	20	-0.10	0.60	-0.69	-0.01	-3	10	-13	19.3	16.1	3.23	16.5	14.2	2.38
Jerry Stackhouse	33	33	-0.41	0.91	-1.32	-0.03	-13	20	-33	17.9	16.2	1.69	10.9	16.8	-5.93
Christian Laettner	22	22	-0.44	0.94	-1.38	0.06	-17	24	-41	18.3	16.3	1.94	10.3	16.1	-5.74

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Greg Minor	31	30	0.35	-0.85	1.20	0.09	9	-16	25	12.7	15.7	-2.98	16.3	17.0	-0.70
Damon Jones	32	32	0.14	-0.64	0.78	0.02	4	-11	15	14.5	14.8	-0.24	19.2	15.5	3.73
Eric Riley	5	4	0.01	-0.51	0.53	0.01	0	-7	7	10.6	14.9	-4.32	15.0	16.9	-1.89
Marlon Garnett	3	3	-0.08	-0.42	0.33	0.09	-6	-1	-5	8.3	14.9	-6.57	13.7	16.9	-3.24
Tony Battie	46	46	-0.09	-0.41	0.31	-0.24	5	-12	17	14.8	14.5	0.33	17.5	16.1	1.41
Walter McCarty	73	72	-0.41	-0.09	-0.31	-0.35	-2	-5	3	14.8	14.1	0.73	16.7	17.2	-0.52
Vitaly Potapenko	58	57	-0.50	-0.00	-0.50	-0.09	-14	7	-21	14.8	14.4	0.39	17.2	16.1	1.14
Paul Pierce	71	71	-0.59	0.09	-0.69	-0.39	-7	0	-7	15.3	12.8	2.49	16.8	16.6	0.20
Dana Barros	60	59	-0.64	0.14	-0.78	-0.32	-11	4	-15	14.8	14.5	0.24	15.5	19.2	-3.73
Ron Mercer	81	81	-0.69	0.19	-0.88	-0.31	-13	6	-19	15.1	11.6	3.46	16.5	18.9	-2.36

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.45,0.42,0.38,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.41,0.53,0.49,0.52,0.62,0.69,0.73,0.79,0.76,0.76,0.79,0.8,0.81,0.83,0.75,0.75,0.71,0.75,0.79,0.89,0.84,0.8,0.74,0.76,0.77,0.74,0.96,0.87,0.87,0.82,0.67,0.68,0.59,0.65,0.67,0.75,0.37,0.1,0.03,0
Game		Similarity Score
LAC 74, POR 71	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.5,0.54,0.57,0.57,0.54,0.53,0.55,0.62,0.65,0.66,0.73,0.79,0.73,0.76,0.8,0.81,0.78,0.83,0.85,0.84,0.8,0.79,0.9,0.92,0.88,0.79,0.82,0.85,0.84,0.87,0.89,0.82,0.81,0.82,0.82,0.71,0.68,0.7,0.66,0.67,0.69,0.21,0.15,0.04,0	92.2%
WAS 85, NJN 78	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.48,0.47,0.44,0.45,0.45,0.49,0.49,0.6,0.6,0.56,0.65,0.66,0.7,0.73,0.66,0.72,0.7,0.75,0.78,0.76,0.75,0.86,0.86,0.84,0.77,0.75,0.78,0.84,0.82,0.83,0.84,0.82,0.92,0.92,0.81,0.78,0.75,0.76,0.68,0.74,0.66,0.72,0.47,0.46,0.15,0.04,0	91.6%
ATL 82, MIA 79	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.5,0.56,0.56,0.57,0.51,0.61,0.57,0.62,0.58,0.57,0.64,0.68,0.66,0.67,0.67,0.76,0.7,0.76,0.79,0.77,0.67,0.67,0.71,0.72,0.67,0.73,0.73,0.71,0.68,0.62,0.63,0.8,0.82,0.87,0.85,0.85,0.76,0.63,0.53,0.46,0.6,0.69,0.36,0.24,0.15,0	91.0%